March: Comfortable Weekend Weather & Warming Trend

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Andrew
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Friday Slight Risk:

" SPC AC 270559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST/SOUTHEAST TX AND THE
ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/MODESTLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER
THE CONUS ON FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/UPPER SPEED MAX OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND OVERSPREAD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION/NORTHEAST STATES ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
WILL OCCUR FRIDAY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER/MIDDLE
MS RIVER VALLEYS...WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED/EASTWARD-MOVING
DISTURBANCES LIKELY OVERSPREADING THIS REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
STATES...WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD FASHION
/WHILE ACCELERATING/ ACROSS PARTS OF TX/ARKLATEX AND THE MS VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

...E/SE TX AND ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST MARITIME-RELATED BOUNDARY LAYER /MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL EXIST WITHIN A BROADENING
WARM/MOIST SECTOR FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TX TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. TO THE WEST OF EARLY DAY
SHOWERS/TSTMS AND A POSSIBLE MCS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION/TN VALLEY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STRONGER-CALIBER TSTMS
COULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON IN AREAS SUCH AS EAST-SOUTHEAST TX AND
PARTS OF AR NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONT. THIS SCENARIO WILL
LIKELY BE INFLUENCED BY ONE OR MORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES/SPEED MAXIMA AS THEY APPROACH THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS.

IN THESE AREAS...AT LEAST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
/2000-2500 J PER KG MLCAPE AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER/ IS EXPECTED
BY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TX/ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AIDED
BY STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES...RELATIVELY LONG/SOMEWHAT
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WITH 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SPLITTING STORMS/SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT
IS BELIEVED THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK AS WELL.
WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE/GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE
QUASI-LINEAR BANDS/POSSIBLE MCS AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING AS STORMS SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD/ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED DAMAGING WIND RISK BY EVENING ASIDE
FROM SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH VEERED/ONLY MODESTLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO TEMPER THE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL."
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unome
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Fri looks more active than today
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Katdaddy
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Amazing to see a supercell and tornadoes in California yesterday evening which is quite rare. Active weather forecast across the southern US today and tomorrow as the Spring severe weather season begins to ramp up. 60% chance of thunderstorms for Houston metro today and 20% tomorrow. I would not be surprised to see the chances increase for tomorrow as SE TX will be under a slight risk area. Hatched area is from Houston NE into LA and AK. which indicates 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point. This will likely be the first Spring severe weather event for SE TX should the forecasted heating and instability verify.
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jasons2k
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Just read the AM discussion. This has bust written all over it if u ask me. Might have to actually run the sprinklers to soak in the fertilizer. I will gladly eat a crow buffet if the cap breaks.
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jasons2k
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Gee, what a shocker ;-)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
115 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
RECENT LOCAL AREA SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT MID-LEVEL INVERSION
AND DRY UPPER LAYERS THAT POINT TO THE FACT THAT THE THREAT FOR
HEAVIER CONVECTION/THUNDER HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED. SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT DRIZZLE...WITH PERIODS OF BRIEF MODERATE SHOWERS...TO OCCUR
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
Andrew
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Kcll sounding:
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Andrew
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:^^ Too bad that is about 100 miles IMBY. Not a bad looking sounding...

Yea, except for the lack of surface CAPE. A full cloud deck over here.
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jasons2k
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New AFD out, 20 pops through tomorrow. I'll be lucky to get .25" at this rate.
unome
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maybe hail though ?

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
0243 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...

A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE IN A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. A SPECIAL 17Z RAOB
NEAR CLL SHOWED THAT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA HAD
WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY LEAVING THE AREA WITH LITTLE INHIBITION AND
RICH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE BUOYANCY SUPPORT A RISK FOR
SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER, THE LIKELIHOOD OF A CLUSTER CONVECTIVE MODE
WITHIN AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN SHOULD TEMPER LONGEVITY OF
INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFTS AND HAIL SIZE. EVEN WITH CONVECTION LIKELY
INITIATING ABOVE THE SURFACE, SATURATED LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WITH NEAR-NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO.
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srainhoutx
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March is quickly coming to an end and a new month is ahead. April may well bring a change to a much more active weather pattern with a rather deep trough to our W and plentiful Gulf moisture advancing N. Perhaps someone would like to start and April Topic as we head toward those Spring time showers and storms that may help our drought situation across the Lone Star State... ;)
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jasons2k
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.12" here

pffffffft
Paul Robison

Uh oh! Look at NAMHIRES on Saturday:

Image
Andrew
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:12Z models sure didn't seem to support a hatched severe risk reaching much of the HGX CWA tomorrow If it doesn't rain at all, severe isn't very likely. 18Z NAM a touch more optimistic than 12Z NAM, but I'm keeping enthusiasm in check.

Sprinkles are better than nothing and seem to be gaining area coverage and maybe even intensity...

Models support precip tomorrow and conditions look a lot better than they did today for severe weather. To be honest the slight risk issued today was unnecessary. I think the hatched area for tomorrow is worthy though especially if we get a lot of clearing.
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Paul Robison

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Andrew wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:12Z models sure didn't seem to support a hatched severe risk reaching much of the HGX CWA tomorrow If it doesn't rain at all, severe isn't very likely. 18Z NAM a touch more optimistic than 12Z NAM, but I'm keeping enthusiasm in check.

Sprinkles are better than nothing and seem to be gaining area coverage and maybe even intensity...

Models support precip tomorrow and conditions look a lot better than they did today for severe weather. To be honest the slight risk issued today was unnecessary. I think the hatched area for tomorrow is worthy though especially if we get a lot of clearing.

12Z models excluding the Euro suggested not much rain, which generally suggests no thunderstorms (Even Euro amounts seem more like showers). New NAM seems to develop decent convection out near I-35, that judging by 3 hour precip rates, weakens as it approaches I-45. Still decent looking rain around 4 pm per NAM.

Maybe because we'll have a harder time seeing much clearing than areas farther West and the storms will become elevated. Winds near the surface will be fairly light as well.

Image

The water colder that 20ºC has actually shrunk a tad, but a cold Winter may still affect our chances this FUNderstorm season. Of course, maybe as the season progresses, we'll get more negative tilted or cut off 'bowling ball' lows, which usually seem to come with more easily broken caps.

Image

.. .. .. .. Hot off the presses just before I hit enter!!!!
Glass quarter full, high res 4 km NAM shows what looks like a supercell in Harris County around 6 and 7 pm
4kmFUNDESTORM_NAM.png
two problems, Ed.

1. According to the graphic you posted, the supercell is not in harris county, but rather north and west of us, moving, I would estimate, to the northeast.
BUT:

2. If that actually enters the Houston metro, the damage will be significant. And you know what I mean.
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Katdaddy
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An active severe weather day ahead between noon and 6PM. Safe travels this morning with Dense Fog Advisories for the Upper TX Coast including the Houston metro. SPC has all of SE TX in slight risk area as well as all of LA and MS. Enhanced threat for damaging winds and large hail. Again the cap will come into play but if it breaks storms will go severe quickly. A very nice Spring weekend ahead with sunny skies and up 70s. Keep an eye to the sky today. Severe weather season is here.
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srainhoutx
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Morning Update from Jeff:

A threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

Ingredients coming together for a potentially active afternoon/early evening as a strong short wave over New Mexico moves eastward forcing the west TX dryline well eastward today along with an incoming frontal boundary from the NW. Area is firmly warm sectored this morning with warm and muggy dewpoints well into the 60’s and pushing 70 at most locations. Satellite images are starting to show mid level cloud enhancements over the Pecos Valley and this is likely the incoming lift associated with the short wave trough over New Mexico. Forecast models show excessive instability by early to mid afternoon over SE/C TX ahead of the dryline with CAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and shear values of 30-50kts. While low level shear is modest the shear throughout the air column is more than enough to help with storm organization. Big question mark remains the capping inversion which held strong yesterday allowing virtually no thunderstorms at all over the area. A strong cap is noted at Corpus Christi and likely extends NE toward the Matagorda Bay region and then weakens across SE TX at some point. Given all the sea fog and low clouds again this morning it may be hard for the sun to break through and heat the surface today helping to erode that stubborn capping inversion. Will get some help with the cooling from the short wave in the mid levels and lift along both the dryline and approaching cold front…but if the cap breaks remains to be seen. Meso models are fairly evenly split strong to severe storms developing this afternoon.

If storms do develop the instability in place will likely result in rapid development with storms quickly going severe, currently thinking is about a 50/50 shot. Meso models showing development show initiate of activity late this morning at the intersection of the dryline and cool front over the Hill Country and then spread a cluster of storms/possible bow echo ESE into E TX this afternoon and evening. Think inflow is fairly weak to support any bow echo across the region (with widespread damaging winds), but instead favor clustering of storms or a possible squall line. Think the main threat will be along an north of a line from Columbus to Sugar Land to Galveston where the capping will be weakest. Main threats will be large hail (possible very large…golfball size or bigger) and wind damage. Any tornado threat will likely be more focused over C TX where initial storm mode will be more supercells before growing into more of a line or cluster.

Will have to watch trends closely this morning.
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Andrew
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I am liking things locally up here in College Station. Already beginning to see some breaks in the clouds as low level clouds start to burn off and temps are already in the lower 70's across the area. Both the NAM and GFS in their 00z runs were showing MUCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range with LI in the -7 to -8 area and a sfc-500mb bulk shear of 30 or 40kts. If we hit 80 across the area I feel like we will have no problem getting some severe storms to pop up. We have really steep mid level lapse rates across most of the area so Hail could be a big concern. While shear isn't overly impressive, I feel like we have long enough sweeping hodographs around the 1-3pm to support some isolated chances before the whole thing goes linear. The key will be the interaction with the LLJ and resulting shortwave. As Jeff stated, you can pretty clearly see the shortwave boundary out west in the Edwards Plateu:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/mflash-vis.html
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srainhoutx
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Update SPC Day 1 Outlook:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL TX TO
MID-SOUTH REGION AND GULF COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOWNSTREAM FROM LARGE NERN PAC CYCLONE...PROGRESSIVE/QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION OVER MO/IA YESTERDAY IS MOVING ENEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT
LAKES ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ACCELERATES EWD OVER
SRN ONT...SRN QUE AND NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
NOW OVER BLACK HILLS AND SRN HIGH PLAINS ARE SEPARATE BUT MOVING
NEARLY IN STEP WITH EACH OTHER. BY 00Z...THESE PERTURBATIONS SHOULD
REACH FSD-OMA AND DFW-VCT CORRIDORS...RESPECTIVELY. SRN-STREAM
TROUGH SHOULD EJECT NEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION BY DAYBREAK
TOMORROW MORNING...AS INITIALLY WEAK/INTERMEDIARY TROUGH AMPLIFIES
OVER OZARKS. MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES PRECURSORY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH -- AND PROBABLY
RESULTING FROM -- PERSISTENT/DISORGANIZED MCS OVER LA/MS/AL. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD TRACK EWD ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN AND
GA THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.

AT SFC...FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING NRN-STREAM TROUGH
HAS STALLED ACROSS SWRN AR...SERN OK...N-CENTRAL TX BETWEEN
METROPLEX AND RED RIVER AND NW TX...TO WEAK SFC CYCLONE CENTERED
BETWEEN ABI-SPS-CDS. AS MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OVER CENTRAL
TX...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD OVER THAT REGION WHILE SFC LOW
MIGRATES ESEWD TO E-CENTRAL/SE TX. OVERNIGHT...LOW SHOULD
SHIFT/REDEVELOP ENEWD OVER NRN MS...DEEPENING AND REACHING
MIDDLE-ERN TN BY 12Z. AT THAT TIME...COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND SWWD
THROUGH WRN AL..SERN MS...SERN LA AND NWRN GULF.
DRYLINE...CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM NRN COAHUILA NEWD ACROSS BWD
AREA...SHOULD MIX EWD BY MID-LATE AFTN TO I-35/US-77 CORRIDOR BEFORE
BEING OVERTAKEN FROM N-S BY COLD FRONT.

...CENTRAL TX TO MID-SOUTH REGION AND GULF COAST STATES...
BROAD...MESSY AND SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT IS EVIDENT OVER
THIS REGION. BIG 15%/SLGT AREA ACTUALLY IS AGGREGATED FROM THREE
SOMEWHAT DISTINCT THREATS THAT OVERLAP SPATIALLY...

1. LOWER DELTA TO SRN AL AND FL PANHANDLE TODAY --
ONGOING/PERSISTENT MCS OVER THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
SLOWLY EWD...OFFERING RISK OF SPORADIC DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS...MAINLY
FROM OUTFLOW DRIVEN BY PRECIP LOADING IN SMALL BOWS. HAIL THREAT
APPEARS MRGL AND TIED TO ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...GIVEN
WEAK AMBIENT LAPSE RATES. TORNADO POTENTIAL FROM ANY
EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT IS VERY
DEPENDENT ON MESO-BETA TO STORM-SCALE EFFECTS.

2. S TX TO ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH...MORNING THROUGH EVENING --
SCATTERED...INITIALLY ELEVATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN SJT-MWL
IN REGIME OF LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE STG
INVERSION LAYER EVIDENT IN 12Z FWD/DRT RAOBS. THIS OR MORE LIKELY
SUBSEQUENT/AFTN CONVECTION NEAR DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO
DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. TIMING...DURATION...COVERAGE
AND EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN.
AS SUCH...PROBABILITIES IN THIS AREA ARE ADJUSTED LITTLE FROM PRIOR
OUTLOOK.

VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIKELY...SUCH THAT MAX
CLOUD-LAYER LI OF -13 TO -16 AND 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPES ARE POSSIBLE
EVEN WITH REDUCTION IN SFC DEW POINTS DUE TO BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING.
THAT MIXING WILL PRODUCE INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUITABLE
FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AS WELL AS FOR MAINTENANCE TO SFC OF LARGE HAIL
GENERATED ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUPERCELL-SUPPORTIVE
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL WIND PROFILES...AND PRESENCE OF LARGE CAPE ALOFT IN
IDEAL HAIL-GENERATION ZONES. AS SUCH...SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING HAIL IS
QUITE POSSIBLE FROM ANY SUSTAINED/DISCRETE STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY
UNDERGO COLD-POOL-DRIVEN AGGREGATION INTO ONE OR MORE BANDS OR ARCS
MOVING ENEWD TO EWD OVER THIS AREA WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE.

3. MS DELTA REGION TONIGHT --
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF SFC COLD FRONT...OFFERING
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL. ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD MOVE EWD
OVER AIR MASS THAT...BY THEN...SHOULD HAVE RECOVERED SUFFICIENTLY
FROM CURRENT MCS ACTIVITY TO SUPPORT RENEWED SVR POTENTIAL.
MEANWHILE DEEP SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EACH WILL BE ENHANCED BY
APCH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AMIDST SFC DEW POINTS MID-60S F.

..EDWARDS/SMITH.. 03/28/2014


03282014 1244Z SPC day1otlk_20140328_1300_prt.gif
03282014 1244Z SPC day1probotlk_20140328_1300_torn_prt.gif
03282014 1244Z day1probotlk_20140328_1300_wind_prt.gif
03282014 1244Z SPC day1probotlk_20140328_1300_hail_prt.gif
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jasons2k
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The sun is already peeking out here in The Woodlands. If I were a betting man, I'd say the cap breaks today.
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Andrew
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Will be launching 18z sounding up here at KCLL.
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