March: Comfortable Weekend Weather & Warming Trend

[redneckweather]

Simply put, this weather sucks and ice sucks just as bad. It's March 3rd for crying out loud. My fruit trees are blooming nicely and haven't looked if they took a beating or not yet. A freezing rain event would really suck. Come on summer!!!

[nuby3]

Storm's a brewin'

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR3.html

[srainhoutx]

Here is the HGX update issued about 30 minutes ago after they viewed the 12Z GFS data. What is interesting as I mentioned early this morning is the convective nature of some of the precip and the amount of QPF that has increased since we began to see a potential threat from this short wave/upper air disturbance. It always raises an eyebrow when we see a Coastal low/trough with convective elements involved and as we witnessed last night as storms developed in Galveston, the temperature really started to drop quickly across the inland locations.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1000 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS FINALLY THINNING OUT OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND THIS IS MUCH
NEEDED TO HELP WARM IT UP. TEMPERATURES AT 9 AM WERE 25-30 OVER
THE INLAND AREAS AND 30-35 OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. STRONG CAA
IS STILL GOING ON AND WIND CHILL READINGS OF 10 TO 20 WERE THE
NORM. CONCERN NOW SHIFTING TO TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AS A PAIR OF
S/W HEADS THIS WAY FROM MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THOUGH WE SHOULD
WARM UP TODAY WITH THE THINNING CLOUDS AND WEAKENING CAA THE
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND NEAR 40 NORTH. WEAK S/W NEAR TORREON/MATAMOROS MEXICO SHOULD
LIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP TO MOISTEN UP THE MID
LEVELS AND SHOULD BRING BACK IN CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY MID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE SHOULD DROP BACK BELOW
FREEZING QUICKLY LATE THIS EVENING...AND THEN THE PRECIPITATION
STARTS AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR MATAGORDA BAY AND OVER THE LOWER
COASTAL WATERS THEN EXPANDS NORTH AS AN IMPRESSIVE EXIT REGION
LIFTS NORTH WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA
TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 6AM. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF PRECIPITATION
AND THESE COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR
AFTER 11 PM THROUGH NOON. THE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT SO FAR THIS
MORNING WITH WHERE THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL SET UP AND IF THE GFS
IS CORRECT A WINTER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTHWEST AREAS.
STAY TUNED. WILL BE EXTENDING THE SCA UNTIL 6 PM AS WELL.
45/38

[Andrew]

Good news is visible is showing a nice break in the clouds out west, so i believe most of our northwest counties should break the freezing mark and a few locations may get close to 40. Bad news is the shortwave/surface low combo looks a lot more potent than before and I suspect some places will get hit pretty hard.

[nuby3]

the heading/trajectory/extrapolation of the systems looks very good too, doesn't it? looks to me like we have a really fun night ahead. I AM SO EXCITED

[srainhoutx]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST MON MAR 03 2014

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL REACH CNTRL/SRN TX
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE
WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES...REACHING THE
CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SFC THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MODIFY AND WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ERN STATES. LEE TROUGHING
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

...SCNTRL THROUGH SRN TX...

STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH TX. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN TX ABOVE THE STABLE
POST FRONTAL LAYER. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH OVER SRN TX DURING THE MORNING...SHIFTING INTO THE WRN GULF
BY NOON.

..DIAL.. 03/03/2014

[Wood6818]

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST MON MAR 03 2014

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL REACH CNTRL/SRN TX
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE
WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES...REACHING THE
CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SFC THE LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MODIFY AND WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ERN STATES. LEE TROUGHING
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

...SCNTRL THROUGH SRN TX...

STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH TX. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN TX ABOVE THE STABLE
POST FRONTAL LAYER. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT EAST OF THE PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH OVER SRN TX DURING THE MORNING...SHIFTING INTO THE WRN GULF
BY NOON.

..DIAL.. 03/03/2014

Help me out Srainhoutx, what does this mean?

[srainhoutx]

Help me out Srainhoutx, what does this mean?

This addresses the potential convective elements with this event. Remember there has been some mention of thunder freezing rain and thundersleet potential with this Winter Weather event as the Coastal low/trough develops and the short wave approaches from the W.

[Wood6818]

Help me out Srainhoutx, what does this mean?

This addresses the potential convective elements with this event. Remember there has been some mention of thunder freezing rain and thundersleet potential with this Winter Weather event as the Coastal low/trough develops and the short wave approaches from the W.

Now Thundersleet would be something to see.

[ticka1]

From Larry Cosgrove via FB:

Larry Cosgrove added 3 new photos.
Quick word about weather in Southeast Texas...

1) The concern voiced by the local Texas City WSFO is real: we have a viable threat for freezing rain and sleet in and around San Antonio, Houston and Beaumont (as far north as Mexia and Lufkin, too) between 2 AM and 7 AM on Tuesday.

2) An upper air disturbance shows up nicely on visible satellite images over northern Mexico (see the comma shape cloud mass). As this feature is pushed northeast by another similar impulse aloft a...long the Mexican border with AZ and NM, it will drag the moist layers with the frontal structure over the western Gulf Of Mexico northward.

3) I am convinced that, with a dry lower layer, we run a fair risk of seeing the freeze line drop as far south as a Rosenberg....League City....Vidor line by 2 - 3 AM CT.

4) With the increase in vertical velocities that results from the two disturbances merging, and moving directly through the Houston/Galveston TX metro at daybreak, sleet and then freezing drizzle/rain will result just before morning rush hour. The vertical velocity profile looks strong enough to generate some convection, too, which hopefully stays south of the freeze line. Hopefully, I say, since thunderstorms in this type of profile would mean ice accumulations in some areas north and west of the city in the order of 1/4 of an inch.

4) precipitation should end around 7 AM CT, followed by clearing and actually milder temperatures into the 50s (F) on Tuesday afternoon.

Sleep well tonight

[srainhoutx]

Newly updated probabilities from the WPC Winter Weather Outlook Desk regarding freezing rain/sleet potential from this evening through tomorrow evening at 00Z.

[nuby3]

People accuse me of being the cold fish on potential weather (that is actually WxMan57), and really, I think this looks like a toss up, where the line of doom lies across the greater NWS HGX area, I wouldn't pretend to know.


But my wife already lost Presidents' Day, and is on the hook for another, and if this happens, a third day, as her school district has no sense of wonder.


They made her go in every Saturday for two months after Ike. To sit in classrooms and hear lectures about teaching.

OTOH, I haven't seen a freezing/frozen event with lightning since the 1993 Leon Lett Miami at Dallas game when I was back in the Metroplex for Thanksgiving. People on TV thought snow, that was mostly sleet with a little snow mixed in. At least in Bedford.

Torn on this one. But I'm sure my wife would rather be teaching on a dreary cold day in March that working in June...

ED- I saw thundersleet in Waco in 2000. it was awesome

[nuby3]

Interesting to me: I live in an apartment on the 2nd floor and I poured water on the concrete out the front door and it froze solid this morning in about 2 minutes. I made icicles on the railing as well. Icicles melted, ice on the concrete still frozen solid. so, even though the air temp is above freezing, should still be on the look out for ice formation on bridges and overpasses

[Portastorm]

I'm thinking we see a temp bust today here in Austin. EWX has us with a high of 41. We're sitting 24 degrees right now with increasing clouds and still major-league cold air advection. I seriously doubt we get above 37-38 degrees. Of course, that'll also mean we'll drop quicker to freezing once the sun sets.

All in all tonight/tomorrow's event has the potential to be the WORST one of the winter for the Austin area. QPF values in the models are much higher than previous events. Only saving grace will be recent warm temps so roads may be slow to ice over. Elevated roadways/bridges will be a joke tomorrow morning if this forecast verifies.

Good thing I didn't bet on this ... LOL ... surface temps in/around AUS metro into upper 30s. I'm gonna be wrong.

[redneckweather]

We had a few breaks of sunshine earlier but thick cloud cover has built back in so think that will be it as far as a warm up today. Temperature is hovering around the freezing mark. Looks like central Montgomery County is in for another school cancellation. The other two times school was cancelled was because of glazing of overpasses with that freezing mist/drizzle. This system looks a good bit stronger than those two.

[nuby3]

fun night in store!!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR3.html

[Texaspirate11]

Ice on the dock today down by the bay.
Wind chill 16.
I'm ready for cane season. Just bring it.

[Andrew]

On phone, but winter storm warning for parts of SE Texas.

[jasons2k]

Winter Storm Warning hoisted for northern areas including Montgomery County:

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... xTpqfldXCc

[Kingwood31]

So it looks like everything in the northern burbs of hou should be ok
Ah ok never mind didn't see the last part of the paragraph