February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

The 21SREF and SPC 21Z SREF mean are a bit too close for comfort across portions of Central/E and SE Texas extending E into LoLouisiana.

[Paul Robison]

I hope we don't have to conserve electricity again Monday and Tuesday night!

[Brandy3835]

What do you think for the Beaumont area just cold rain ?

[Paul Robison]

Dear Kingwood 31:
Your brother works for ERCOT, right? Do they feel that electricity will once again be an issue with this upcoming cold front?

[Kingwood31]

Probably not,it wasn't much of a issue last time..he doesn't see much of a issue thus time either

[Kingwood31]

TV mets seem like a cold rain nothing frozen around here so...maybe a surprise for the last time early tues morning

[cristina6871]

I know we've all had our share of winter (don't get me wrong - I enjoy the cold weather); after this week, is there any chatter or indication there may be more - towards the end of the month?

[basketballrox]

So I live in San Marcos which is about 30 minutes south of Austin. Do you think any of us here in central Texas could get a significant ice/snow event? I'm not very familiar with all the models and such, but I do know the basics. It seems there will be more precipitation than there were in the last events here.

[Paul Robison]

Dear srainhoutex:

Do you think any of us here in SE Texas could (will?) get a significant icing event after all? According to the latest disco, HGX is holding off any advisories at this time, but (I suppose) that could change.

[basketballrox]

Well considering all major weather outlets here I'm the Austin area have been forecasting 7-10 degrees too warm the last few events I don't trust them with one degree lol I'm definitely going to keep my eyes and ears open and watch this board among other sites as well. Y'all are a huge help! Thanks for all you do!

[Andrew]

For our northern counties the global models are pretty close to getting freezing temps here before precip gets here. Could lead to interesting results if models are only a couple degrees too warm. Plus dewpoints do look low enough to possibly get some evaporative cooling. Keep an eye on things

[Paul Robison]

For our northern counties the global models are pretty close to getting freezing temps here before precip gets here. Could lead to interesting results if models are only a couple degrees too warm. Plus dewpoints do look low enough to possibly get some evaporative cooling. Keep an eye on things

What about our southern counties, Andrew? Esp. Harris County?

[srainhoutx]

The over night guidance has trended a bit colder and the chances of a wintry mix have increased mainly N of the I-10 Corridor beginning early Tuesday morning and extending into the daytime hour of Tuesday into Tuesday night as temperature struggle to reach the low to mid 30's inland and near 40 along the Coast. The fly in the ointment is a Coastal Low that appears to develop along the Middle Texas Coast as a warm nose above the surface is in place, temperatures near or just below freezing develop early Tuesday and may continue into early Wednesday. The WPC Winter Weather morning Outlook is suggesting the potential of a high impact societal winter weather event may develop across portions of E Texas extending E into Louisiana as the Coastal Low slowly moves E toward New Orleans. I would not be surprised to see various Winter Weather Advisories and even Winter Storm Watches or Warnings issued later today across portions Central/SE Texas and Ice Storm Warnings issued across portions of Louisiana. Stay tuned as the complex and complicated Winter Weather event unfolds and more data becomes available throughout today.

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014

VALID 12Z MON FEB 10 2014 - 12Z THU FEB 13 2014

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST/MID-ATL
STATES...

A HIGH SOCIETAL IMPACT WINTER STORM IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND THEN PROCEEDING POTENTIALLY UP THE EAST COAST BY
MIDWEEK.

A VERY COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN WITH SPLIT FLOW REGIME REMAINS QUITE
ACTIVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY... WHILE A MAMMOTH DOME OF SURFACE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONSUMES THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY.
AN IMPRESSIVE AND DYNAMIC IMPULSE NEAR THE NRN ROCKIES WILL GLIDE
ALONG THE NRN STREAM AND REACH THE MID MS VALLEY ON MON.
MEANWHILE... THE LAST SHORT WAVE FROM THE PAC TROPICAL PLUME WILL
ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE ACTIVE SRN BRANCH AND TRACK FROM
CENTRAL CA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE OVERALL CONFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF EACH FEATURE AND UPPER VORTEX OVER
ONTARIO WILL LOCK IN A MAMMOTH AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST... WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP
NEAR THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST. ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE WITH INCREASING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OVERRUN AND SURGE INTO THE FRESHLY RE-ESTABLISHED
COLD SECTOR FOR A STREAK OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SERN KS/ERN OK THROUGH
AR... WHILE RAIN TRANSITIONS OVER TO FREEZING RAIN FROM EAST AND
CENTRAL TX/NRN LA INTO NRN/CENTRAL MS/AL. THE GUIDANCE HAS
NARROWED THE SPREAD SOME DESPITE THE TOUGH SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND
WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE/BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF... WITH THE GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATION THREAT FROM SHV TO
BHM.

THE FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES ALOFT
ALONG WITH FURTHER UPSTREAM DYNAMICS ON TUES. THE NRN STREAM
IMPULSE TRACKS FROM MID MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST COAST... WHILE
THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THE SLIGHT BACKING IN THE FLOW ALOFT IS DUE TO RIDGE AMPLIFYING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PAC DYNAMICS MOVING INTO THE PAC NW ON
MON BEFORE DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS THE GENERALLY SUPPRESSED PRECIP SHIELD ON MON
WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AND LIFT TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTHEAST... WHILE THE UPSTREAM DYNAMICS CAPITALIZE ON THE
EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE TO POSSIBLY INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY WED MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY... IF
YOU ARE CONFUSED... YOU CAN IMAGINE THE REMAINING FORECAST SPREAD
WITH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WPC STAYED VERY CLOSE
TO THE COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR QPF AMOUNTS AND A
BLEND OF THESE TWO WITH THE 21Z/09 SREF MEAN FOR PRECIP TYPE. AN
IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF ICING WITH SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE
NRN/NERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... AS A 1030+ SURFACE
RIDGE DAMS. EXPECT POSSIBLE .10 TO MAYBE .50 INCH ICING FROM ERN
TX THROUGH NRN LA INTO CENTRAL MS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THEN THE
ACTION SHIFTS ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL GA INTO MUCH OF SC AND MOST OF NC
WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY THE BEGINNING OF A
PARALYZING ICE STORM ACROSS CENTRAL SC INTO NERN GA.

THEN FINALLY ON WED... THE DIGGING UPSTREAM DYNAMICS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY CATCH UP WITH THE SRN STREAM DYNAMICS
TO POTENTIALLY PHASE OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC TO INTERACT WITH THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST... WHILE ONE OF THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE CONFLUENT ZONES ALOFT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE EAST. A TRUE BAROCLINIC LEAF PRECIP
SHIELD WILL EVOLVE FEATURING CONTINUED ICING FROM EAST OF ATL
TOWARD CAE THEN SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD RDU AND A VERY HEALTHY
DEFORMATION ZONE OF BANDING SNOWFALL FROM SWRN NC/NWRN SC NEWRD TO
SWRN/CENTRAL VA BEFORE POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH THE DC/BALT METRO
AREAS. THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN POSSIBLY PARALYZING IF NOT
HISTORICAL WITH ADDITIONAL .50 TO .75 INCH AXIS FROM AHN TO CAE TO
RDU AND 8 TO 10 INCHES OR SNOW FROM AVL/GSP TO ROA/LYH/CHO. WPC
CONTINUED THE COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
SREF MEAN... THOUGH MUCH MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT IS BEGINNING
TO CLUSTER CLOSER TO THE ECMWF ON A FULL FLEDGED PHASED COASTAL
WINTER STORM.

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Another cold storm system heading for the area.

First item this morning is the widespread dense sea fog that covers nearly the entire region. Warm moist warm continues to flow inland across the chilled nearshore waters leading to very thick sea fog. Visibilities have been averaging ¼ to 1/8 a mile all night long with near zero around the inland bays and the coast. Will not see much improvement with the fog until the strong polar cold front currently along a line from Cleveland to Conroe to Hempstead pushes across the area.

Next item is the incoming cold front and how cold and how wet behind the boundary which brings P-type into question especially up north tonight and again Tuesday night. Shallow arctic boundary is currently cutting the area in half this morning and slowly pushing southward. Front should reach metro Houston around 900am and the coast by early afternoon. Dense fog south of the boundary will improve with the frontal passage, but light rain and drizzle will be developing behind the boundary as the shallow cold air mass is overrun by moist warm flow aloft. Temperatures are at highs currently and will be falling throughout the day with late afternoon temperatures ranging from the upper 30’s up north to lower 40’s along US 59 under gusty north winds.

An upper level storm system approaches from the west tonight into Tuesday with good lifting of warm moist air over the surface arctic cold dome. Expect widespread light rain and drizzle all night with developing heavier showers. Given the warm layer aloft, do not expect any frozen precipitation…so the question then becomes how cold will the surface temperature be. Current guidance is suggesting most of the area will remain above freezing with the exception of the area from roughly College Station to Livingston where temperatures may fall to 31-32 by Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings support a freezing rain profile if the surface temperature is able to reach freezing. At this point this looks fairly marginal, but close enough for some concern for those northern set of counties for some light icing Tuesday morning…Brazos, Madison, Walker, Polk, Houston, Trinity, Burleson Counties.

Tuesday will be miserable with widespread cold rain and temperatures hovering in the mid to upper 30’s for all areas. Should see enough temperature recovery up north to end any freezing rain threat by mid morning. Next critical period then becomes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as surface temperatures look a bit colder during this time period with the freezing line progressing southward to a Columbus to Conroe line Wednesday morning. Upper level storm system should be pushing eastward across the area with drying taking place by Tuesday night however any delay in this system would support a freezing rain/sleet mixture along and north of a line from Columbus to Livingston late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This is looking marginal due to a lack of precipitation falling, but surface temperatures will be running about 2-3 degrees colder than Tuesday morning during this period…currently still think any icing will be minor.

For Houston metro, not expecting any ice concerns tonight into Tuesday morning and think most if not all the precipitation will end prior to any freezing temperatures on Wednesday morning.

As with all winter weather events there is some uncertainty especially since temperatures are going to be so marginal this go around compared to some of the previous threats in the recent weeks.

Rainfall amounts will average .25 to .75 of an inch across the area with the heaviest rainfall likely east of I-45 and along the coastal areas.

Storm system will exit eastward on Wednesday and expect to finally see dry NW flow aloft establish. This will result in clearing skies and more seasonable temperatures for the end of the week after several weeks of below normal temperatures. Lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s and 70’s look on target for Thur-Sun. Moisture does begin to increase off the Gulf again by Friday and once again with very cool nearshore water temperatures…we could be fighting dense sea fog if winds are light enough by next weekend.

[unome]

from NWS Amarillo - never heard of such a thing before !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdN3Va4Yp_Q

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
742 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195-196-198-102100-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
GRIMES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...NAVASOTA
742 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD RETURN TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...AND THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
ON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS GENERALLY ALONG
AND TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE LAKE SOMERVILLE AREA TO NEW
WAVERLY TO THE LIVINGSTON AREA. AT THIS POINT...ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THESE LOW
AMOUNTS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON
ELEVATED ROADS...OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING POTENTIAL WINTER
WEATHER EVENT.

[Kingwood31]

from NWS Amarillo - never heard of such a thing before !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UdN3Va4Yp_Q

That's what we need here in houston to get snow fall lol

[Portastorm]

Well considering all major weather outlets here I'm the Austin area have been forecasting 7-10 degrees too warm the last few events I don't trust them with one degree lol I'm definitely going to keep my eyes and ears open and watch this board among other sites as well. Y'all are a huge help! Thanks for all you do!

At this point, all model guidance suggests any wintry "mischief" will remain north and west of Austin proper. Even the latest short-range SREF ensemble model shows that Austin will be a bit too warm for icy conditions. Same for San Marcos.

Key phrase here "At this point" ... stay tuned.

[Andrew]

im very angry about this lines for the frozen precip. just north of i10/ our northern counties,,,a college station to huntsvolle line. im sick of everything being on the northern edge.

There has been a pretty good mix this winter With respect to location, but this is SE Texas. If you want more Winter precipitation I suggest moving North

[nuby3]

im very angry about this lines for the frozen precip. just north of i10/ our northern counties,,,a college station to huntsvolle line. im sick of everything being on the northern edge.

There has been a pretty good mix this winter With respect to location, but this is SE Texas. If you want more Winter precipitation I suggest moving North

I understand both perspectives though. I love snow and want it more than anything. SNOW SNOW SNOW MMMMmmmmm. the more, the better. but I can not move because I have a great job doing something I really like doing and I make a ton of money and hardly work any hours