cristina6871 wrote:I was talking to my mom about the 1973 rare snow storm (I was just a tot). And she mentioned another snow event in the very early 1990s. Just curious, when might that have been. It wasn't just a dusting according to her.
You are probably thinking the snow event on December 22, 1989. There was no snow between 1990 to 1993. It snowed on February 1, 1994. However, there was an ice storm on December 22-23, 1990.
0z GFS is kinda interesting from Thursday-Sunday. Its just as cold as the 18z was, but whats interesting is that the cold air stay put through the weekend as a 2nd surge of moisture pushes through after Fridays storm system.If it trends any colder things could get interesting...
Both the 18z and 0z GFS have trended a little colder for this coming week. Meteogram plots of 2m temps support colder conditions than currently forecast by the NWS. In fact, if you take the raw data from the 0z run, the average temperature over the next 8 days is only 39.6F at IAH and it doesn't get above 53F.
I think we are going to see the downward trend continue with temperatures for this coming week. My hunch is the GFS is still a few degrees too warm with the fronts. The source region temps in Canada aren't overly cold, but that 1056+ mb high on the 0z is really impressive. We would be expecting very cold temps if there was a cross polar flow setup ahead of this.
Sunday’s cold front has pushed well into the Gulf this morning with cold and cloudy conditions across the entire region.
North winds still ongoing this morning helping keep the cold air flowing southward off the snow covered central plains. Next storm system is clearly noted in water vapor images coming ashore over southern California and will arrive across the state of TX tonight into Tuesday. No longer expect the warm frontal boundary to push inland, but it could at least get close to the coast. With this in mind think we will see mainly light rain and showers…early Tuesday…similar to yesterday as lift and moisture increases.
While models attempt to show some clearing today, moisture is trapped in the frontal inversion and many times this is hard to mix out until the inversion breaks. Think clouds will be very slow to break up if at all and this will have a direct impact on high temperatures. If we stay cloudy highs will only reach the mid 40’s, if the sun does break out this afternoon highs could reach the lower 50’s.
Storm system on Tuesday will be fast moving and expect rain chances mainly in the morning with a good deal of snow expected across the southern plains into the central plains…which could become very important for our late week forecast. Expect rain chances to end fairly quickly on Tuesday afternoon and may even see a brief period of clearing as a strong more “arctic” like air mass pours into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Late Week Storm System:
Yet another in the series of storms moving ashore on the west coast will impact TX toward the end of the week. This is where the forecast gets somewhat interesting as there will be a lot at play come Thursday and Friday across the region. First will be the cold air mass which arrives on Wednesday. This air mass does not look overly cold, but with a large developing snow pack over the central plains this week…think forecast models are warming the incoming air mass too much as it pushes southward over the upstream snow cover. Next storm system begins to approach the state on Thursday with increasing moisture being forced into the cold air mass. Given the dry surface layer think it will take a period of time for precipitation to start to reach the ground as the air mass will have to saturate from aloft to the surface. Should start to see light rain/drizzle reach the surface Thursday evening. Coastal trough developing off the lower TX coast on Thursday night and only slowly moves up the coast on Friday will help to spread moisture inland from the coast. Current thinking is that this will be mainly light rainfall and drizzle.
Critical factor then becomes surface air temperature Thursday night into Friday morning. GFS has both CLL and IAH falling to 30 degrees Friday morning with a significant warm layer of air above the surface. This is yet again pointing toward a freezing rain/freezing drizzle profile for potentially part of the region. Since we are still several days away from any potential event and the models have not been showing very good agreement over the last 48 hours….will keep everything rain for the period from midnight to noon on Friday at this point, but the potential is there for some degree of winter precipitation across portions of SE TX toward the end of the week.
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This air mass isn't overly cold compared to previous fronts we've had already this year. The reason for that is the source region in Canada is not very cold (for Canada). A quick check on wunderground shows that the coldest temps in Canada are currently in the N central part of the country around the low -30s. The origin of the front coming down will have it's source in NW Canada where temps are only -10s with a few isolated -20s.
The 12z GFS has a 1050+ mb high moving into Montana but stalls it and doesn't drive it down to TX. This results in temps forecasts in the mid to upper 30s for a couple of days. Not quite cold enough for frozen precip.
^ This is my amateur analysis of the model, take it with a grain of salt.
The 12Z GFS has a trace of snow dipping south to about Waco on Sunday. Temps in the low 40s here Sunday, though. It's possible there could be some light snow in central to north Texas Sunday as the upper low goes by - assuming the 12Z GFS is correct (doubtful). We may be able to squeeze out a low in the upper 20s by next Monday. Not exactly bitter Arctic air.
wxman57 wrote:The 12Z GFS has a trace of snow dipping south to about Waco on Sunday. Temps in the low 40s here Sunday, though. It's possible there could be some light snow in central to north Texas Sunday as the upper low goes by - assuming the 12Z GFS is correct (doubtful). We may be able to squeeze out a low in the upper 20s by next Monday. Not exactly bitter Arctic air.
We've had multiple mornings in the 20s.....no big deal. Our lowest this season was 21....doubt we'll top that.
Paul Baustista wrote:im sick of the negativity. it will be cold enough for frozen precip.
Dude...just speaking for myself...but can you lighten up a bit? We've all read the warnings of keeping the posts to weather related topics. We all (well most of us) want to see snow but come on man....WE DON'T LIVE WHERE SNOW IS COMMON. It's not negative for educated weather persons to post their views based upon the knowledge that they have been taught. It's only perceived as negative by you because that's not what you want to read.
The 00Z Euro ensembles (12Z won't be in for another hour or two) point to deepening low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska after this week. Such a pattern change would prevent any intrusions of Arctic air into Texas after the next 7 days. The more zonal flow across the U.S. could increase our rain chances (assuming it verifies, of course), and it would significantly reduce the chance for any further frozen precipitation here. I don't see any temps approaching what I'd call warm (75+) here for the next 2 weeks, though.
WORD ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPE...GFS MODEL QPF FIELDS DO NOT SHOW A
LOT OF PRECIP THUR INTO FRI. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR KCLL AND EVEN
TO SOME DEGREE KIAH WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE BASICALLY
FROM 06Z TO 18Z FRIDAY. GFS HAS COLDER TEMPS THAN THE ECMWF BUT
THINK FREEZING LINE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO COLLEGE STATION TO
HUNTSVILLE COME FRI MORNING. TOP DOWN PRECIP TYPE METHODOLOGY
SHOWS AT LEAST DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND IN THE
CASE OF KCLL...FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
RAIN/DRIZZLE IN FORECAST BUT REALLY KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
TIME FRAME FOR THE FROZEN VARIETIES OF PRECIP. 39
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Heh, so much for those who religiously follow computer models and their output. Models busted today in Austin by 5-6 degrees too warm at both reporting locations ... Mabry topped out at 46, Bergstrom at 45. Models suggested high temps in the low 50s today. Not even close.
Portastorm wrote:Heh, so much for those who religiously follow computer models and their output. Models busted today in Austin by 5-6 degrees too warm at both reporting locations ... Mabry topped out at 46, Bergstrom at 45. Models suggested high temps in the low 50s today. Not even close.
Glad you mentioned a busted forecast cuz I really didn't know where to place this article.
But, its so interesting....you can remove it if y'all want too
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared! Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Portastorm wrote:Heh, so much for those who religiously follow computer models and their output. Models busted today in Austin by 5-6 degrees too warm at both reporting locations ... Mabry topped out at 46, Bergstrom at 45. Models suggested high temps in the low 50s today. Not even close.
Glad you mentioned a busted forecast cuz I really didn't know where to place this article.
But, its so interesting....you can remove it if y'all want too
It wouldn't bother me one bit if no seasonal forecasts are produced for 2014.As long as I know three things about an impending storm I will be ok.
1.where it is.
2.how strong it is.
3.where is it going.
Portastorm wrote:Heh, so much for those who religiously follow computer models and their output. Models busted today in Austin by 5-6 degrees too warm at both reporting locations ... Mabry topped out at 46, Bergstrom at 45. Models suggested high temps in the low 50s today. Not even close.
Glad you mentioned a busted forecast cuz I really didn't know where to place this article.
But, its so interesting....you can remove it if y'all want too
It wouldn't bother me one bit if no seasonal forecasts are produced for 2014.As long as I know three things about an impending storm I will be ok.
1.where it is.
2.how strong it is.
3.where is it going.
predicting the future is something only a fool believes he can do. when we can't nail down a local forecast 5 days out, it doesn't make sense to give credibility to something even further into the future and even more complicated to predict. Really, we need to see these types of long range predictions as nothing more than for entertainment value. or to "see how close they get".
predicting the future is something only a fool believes he can do. when we can't nail down a local forecast 5 days out, it doesn't make sense to give credibility to something even further into the future and even more complicated to predict. Really, we need to see these types of long range predictions as nothing more than for entertainment value. or to "see how close they get".[/quote]
nuby, I disagree. I live right off of Galveston Bay. My area is the target. You can't live here and not be too prepared or to aware.
Even in a bust year, we'll always be on the watch. We live on Mother Nature's playground. We have seen all too often that she can take it back. If we get lackadaisical, we can make really idiotic life threatening decisions. Yeah, it was a bust year. A time where they can figure it out and only get better. Rita was a disaster, but they corrected it and I'm proud to say, learning from that mistake, Texas is the #1 prepared state in emergency management.
I never want to be Atlanta. Even when they do predict correctly, do you think they took heed when Sandy came? It's our job to be prepared and when it does happen, if it does happen, we're ready. It only takes one.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared! Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
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