February: Clear Skies & Moderating Temps To End The Month
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srainhoutx
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Austin ISD has cancelled classes for tomorrow.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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Paul Robison
Andrew wrote:Texas has delayed classes till noonsrainhoutx wrote:Austin ISD has cancelled classes for tomorrow.
Is this because of the power situation I just mentioned, Andrew?
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Portastorm
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Paul Robison wrote:Andrew wrote:srainhoutx wrote:Austin ISD has cancelled classes for tomorrow.
Texas has delayed classes till noon
Is this because of the power situation I just mentioned, Andrew?
AISD indicated they are canceling classes due to "weather and road conditions." Read into that what you want. I'm not privy to the details of tonight's conference call, but I do know they held one and EWX must really be thinking that tomorrow morning is going to be ugly in Austin. I have never seen AISD call off school the night before when nothing was happening weatherwise. The shaky power grid issue could be a factor as well. If I see any discussion of that I'll post it here.
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Paul Robison
[/quote][/i]
AISD indicated they are canceling classes due to "weather and road conditions." Read into that what you want. I'm not privy to the details of tonight's conference call, but I do know they held one and EWX must really be thinking that tomorrow morning is going to be ugly in Austin. I have never seen AISD call off school the night before when nothing was happening weatherwise. The shaky power grid issue could be a factor as well. If I see any discussion of that I'll post it here.[/quote]
Dear Andrew or Nuby3:
It's been my understanding that ERCOT is only alerting us about this as a PRECAUTION, not as a full ALERT. Could somebody shed a little bit of light on what's going on for me, please?
AISD indicated they are canceling classes due to "weather and road conditions." Read into that what you want. I'm not privy to the details of tonight's conference call, but I do know they held one and EWX must really be thinking that tomorrow morning is going to be ugly in Austin. I have never seen AISD call off school the night before when nothing was happening weatherwise. The shaky power grid issue could be a factor as well. If I see any discussion of that I'll post it here.[/quote]
Dear Andrew or Nuby3:
It's been my understanding that ERCOT is only alerting us about this as a PRECAUTION, not as a full ALERT. Could somebody shed a little bit of light on what's going on for me, please?
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Portastorm
- Posts: 800
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- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
930 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014
.UPDATE...
EXPECTED WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ON TRACK AS OF THIS WRITING. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING AND DELAYED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
ABOUT 4 AM FRIDAY INSTEAD OF MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS
CONTINUES IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN ALOFT WITH DRY AND COLD AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON LOCAL ROADWAYS...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO LIQUID AFTER
AROUND NOON OR 1 PM FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES COME UP FROM THE
FREEZING MARK.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
930 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014
.UPDATE...
EXPECTED WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ON TRACK AS OF THIS WRITING. MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
WEATHER GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING AND DELAYED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
ABOUT 4 AM FRIDAY INSTEAD OF MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS
CONTINUES IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE TEENS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY. THIS WILL CREATE
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN ALOFT WITH DRY AND COLD AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE...RESULTING IN A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW.
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED ON LOCAL ROADWAYS...BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO LIQUID AFTER
AROUND NOON OR 1 PM FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES COME UP FROM THE
FREEZING MARK.
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Kingwood31
- Posts: 140
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- Location: Kingwood,tx
- Contact:
[/i]Paul Robison wrote:
AISD indicated they are canceling classes due to "weather and road conditions." Read into that what you want. I'm not privy to the details of tonight's conference call, but I do know they held one and EWX must really be thinking that tomorrow morning is going to be ugly in Austin. I have never seen AISD call off school the night before when nothing was happening weatherwise. The shaky power grid issue could be a factor as well. If I see any discussion of that I'll post it here.[/quote]
Dear Andrew or Nuby3:
It's been my understanding that ERCOT is only alerting us about this as a PRECAUTION, not as a full ALERT. Could somebody shed a little bit of light on what's going on for me, please?[/quote]
Everything will be ok man
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Paul Robison
Kingwood31 wrote:[/i]Paul Robison wrote:
AISD indicated they are canceling classes due to "weather and road conditions." Read into that what you want. I'm not privy to the details of tonight's conference call, but I do know they held one and EWX must really be thinking that tomorrow morning is going to be ugly in Austin. I have never seen AISD call off school the night before when nothing was happening weatherwise. The shaky power grid issue could be a factor as well. If I see any discussion of that I'll post it here.
Dear Andrew or Nuby3:
It's been my understanding that ERCOT is only alerting us about this as a PRECAUTION, not as a full ALERT. Could somebody shed a little bit of light on what's going on for me, please?[/quote]
Everything will be ok man[/quote]
Not worried, only curious:
Do U work for ERCOT, Kingwood?
It has snowed three times this winter. It is not the most. The most snow days in Houston are in 1973 and 1985. It snowed 7 times in 7 calendar days those winters. January 1985 had 6 snowfall events in 6 calendar days, which remains the most in one month. 1972-1973 had the most over 1 inch snowfall event with three.
Last edited by Ptarmigan on Thu Feb 06, 2014 9:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Kingwood31
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- Location: Kingwood,tx
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My brother does..he told me it's just a precaution their taking to make sure nothing happens
After what happened in Atlanta I'm sure AISD & other such Austin area entities are being extremely cautious. Maybe too much. I'm a little surprised they didn't issue a 2 hour start delay and then update tomorrow morning.
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Portastorm
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- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
- Contact:
texoz wrote:After what happened in Atlanta I'm sure AISD & other such Austin area entities are being extremely cautious. Maybe too much. I'm a little surprised they didn't issue a 2 hour start delay and then update tomorrow morning.
So am I, actually. They did have that option. My guess is that the NWS doesn't expect temps to rise above freezing until after 12 noon. The drizzle/light sleet looks likely so the question becomes what happens on the ground. Bridges/elevated roadways are guaranteed to freeze like they have the last two times. Roadways this time are in play too since we've been below freezing for close to 24 consecutive hours.
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Paul Robison
texoz wrote:After what happened in Atlanta I'm sure AISD & other such Austin area entities are being extremely cautious. Maybe too much. I'm a little surprised they didn't issue a 2 hour start delay and then update tomorrow morning.
Better to overreact than underreact, texoz.
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Andrew
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Paul Robison wrote:texoz wrote:After what happened in Atlanta I'm sure AISD & other such Austin area entities are being extremely cautious. Maybe too much. I'm a little surprised they didn't issue a 2 hour start delay and then update tomorrow morning.
Better to overreact than underreact, texoz.
Wrong, both can be equally as bad.
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If overreaction is better, then it's clear that...Paul Robison wrote:Better to overreact than underreact, texoz.
You're the Best, Paul...
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Andrew
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014
...LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...
.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AND
SWING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING HELPING TO DEVELOP
DRIZZLE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING AND SHOULD SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. THE DRIZZLE SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGING FROM AROUND 5 TO 7 AM. ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT TO VERY LIGHT BUT WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD COLLECT ON BRIDGES...METAL
SURFACES...AND WINDOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING BUT BY 10 AM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND
FREEZING. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR A FEW HOURS
FOR THE VERY FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD THE
COLD AIR HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER.
TXZ176-195>198-210-211-071600-
/O.CON.KHGX.WW.Y.0003.140207T1100Z-140207T1600Z/
MADISON-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-COLORADO-AUSTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISONVILLE...CALDWELL...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...
COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE
950 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM
CST FRIDAY...
* TIMING...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM BETWEEN 5 AND 7
AM SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE BACK TO AROUND FREEZING BY 10 AM BUT IF
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWER TO RISE DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER THEN THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED UNTIL NOON OR
1 PM ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
GENERALLY NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION TO CROCKETT
LINE.
* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ON BRIDGES...WINDOWS AND EXPOSED METAL SURFACES. SLICK
AND TREACHEROUS CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THESE AREA
BRIDGES.
* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILL READINGS OF 18 TO 26 DEGREES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME SLICK
AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF ICE ON THESE BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES MAY MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS.
&&
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014
...LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING...
.AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT AND
SWING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING HELPING TO DEVELOP
DRIZZLE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING AND SHOULD SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. THE DRIZZLE SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD RANGING FROM AROUND 5 TO 7 AM. ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT TO VERY LIGHT BUT WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD COLLECT ON BRIDGES...METAL
SURFACES...AND WINDOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING BUT BY 10 AM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND
FREEZING. THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR A FEW HOURS
FOR THE VERY FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD THE
COLD AIR HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER.
TXZ176-195>198-210-211-071600-
/O.CON.KHGX.WW.Y.0003.140207T1100Z-140207T1600Z/
MADISON-BURLESON-BRAZOS-WASHINGTON-GRIMES-COLORADO-AUSTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISONVILLE...CALDWELL...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...
COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE
950 PM CST THU FEB 6 2014
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 AM
CST FRIDAY...
* TIMING...FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM BETWEEN 5 AND 7
AM SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE ADVISORY AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RISE BACK TO AROUND FREEZING BY 10 AM BUT IF
TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWER TO RISE DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER THEN THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED UNTIL NOON OR
1 PM ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
GENERALLY NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION TO CROCKETT
LINE.
* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE ON BRIDGES...WINDOWS AND EXPOSED METAL SURFACES. SLICK
AND TREACHEROUS CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THESE AREA
BRIDGES.
* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILL READINGS OF 18 TO 26 DEGREES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME SLICK
AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF ICE ON THESE BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES MAY MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS.
&&
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
0z GFS is not as cold as the 18z run, but still colder than previous model runs for next weeks system, we'll have to see if future model runs trend colder.
something is brewing.
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Andrew
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may want to keep an eye on tonight before looking at next week. Already seeing moisture streaming in from Brownsville heading north.
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Paul Robison
Uh-oh!
From ERCOT:
Risk of rotating outages increases in Valley
Consumers urged to conserve in order to help avoid the need for these outages
8 p.m., Feb. 6, 2014 -- There is an increased risk that ERCOT will need to instruct Valley-area transmission and distribution service providers to begin rotating outages in the Rio Grande Valley area due to high power demands and transmission import limitations into the area. The highest likelihood of rotating outages is until about 9 p.m. this evening and between 6 and 9 a.m. Friday morning.
The transmission system capacity sending power to the Valley area is affected by a planned outage on a line that is being upgraded to improve future electric capacity to the region. The line cannot be returned to service in time to serve increased power demand associated with the extremely cold weather that is driving up power demands.
Rotating outages are controlled, temporary interruptions of electric service that are typically limited to 10-45 minutes before being rotated to a different neighborhood. If rotating outages become necessary to protect the transmission grid, they will continue as long as needed to maintain the grid reliability and prevent a more serious situation.
The specific locations and durations are determined by local utilities. Some customers may experience longer outages if power surges cause equipment failure during the restoration process. Customers can minimize power surges by turning off appliances, lights and other equipment, except for one task light to determine when power has been restored.
Although ERCOT has requested conservation across the entire region, the need is particularly acute in the Rio Grande Valley area due to the transmission issue. ERCOT is asking consumers in the Rio Grande Valley area to reduce energy consumption this evening and during the morning peak hours.
■Keep your thermostat as low as is comfortable, preferably no higher than 68 degrees.
■Turn off and unplug non-essential lights and appliances.
■Avoid running large appliances such as washers, dryers and electric ovens during peak energy demand hours (6-9 a.m. and 4-8 p.m.).
■Close shades and blinds at night to reduce the amount of heat lost through windows.
■Large consumers of electricity should consider shutting down or reducing non-essential production processes.
How high could the risk rise for SE TX, Kingwood31?
From ERCOT:
Risk of rotating outages increases in Valley
Consumers urged to conserve in order to help avoid the need for these outages
8 p.m., Feb. 6, 2014 -- There is an increased risk that ERCOT will need to instruct Valley-area transmission and distribution service providers to begin rotating outages in the Rio Grande Valley area due to high power demands and transmission import limitations into the area. The highest likelihood of rotating outages is until about 9 p.m. this evening and between 6 and 9 a.m. Friday morning.
The transmission system capacity sending power to the Valley area is affected by a planned outage on a line that is being upgraded to improve future electric capacity to the region. The line cannot be returned to service in time to serve increased power demand associated with the extremely cold weather that is driving up power demands.
Rotating outages are controlled, temporary interruptions of electric service that are typically limited to 10-45 minutes before being rotated to a different neighborhood. If rotating outages become necessary to protect the transmission grid, they will continue as long as needed to maintain the grid reliability and prevent a more serious situation.
The specific locations and durations are determined by local utilities. Some customers may experience longer outages if power surges cause equipment failure during the restoration process. Customers can minimize power surges by turning off appliances, lights and other equipment, except for one task light to determine when power has been restored.
Although ERCOT has requested conservation across the entire region, the need is particularly acute in the Rio Grande Valley area due to the transmission issue. ERCOT is asking consumers in the Rio Grande Valley area to reduce energy consumption this evening and during the morning peak hours.
■Keep your thermostat as low as is comfortable, preferably no higher than 68 degrees.
■Turn off and unplug non-essential lights and appliances.
■Avoid running large appliances such as washers, dryers and electric ovens during peak energy demand hours (6-9 a.m. and 4-8 p.m.).
■Close shades and blinds at night to reduce the amount of heat lost through windows.
■Large consumers of electricity should consider shutting down or reducing non-essential production processes.
How high could the risk rise for SE TX, Kingwood31?