January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[TeamPlayersBlue]

29.8 in Sugar Land. Temp dropped a bit actually since sunrise.

[sambucol]

At 8:50, it was 28 in Baytown. An hour later, it's 25.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS has come into somewhat agreement with what the 00Z Canadian had suggested overnight. After a strong Arctic front arrives next Monday afternoon/evening when our temperature may drop to the low to mid 20's, a robust upper air disturbance drops ESE across Mexico and heads across the Southern half of Texas Tuesday evening/early Wednesday.

[Kingwood31]

I don't think any of this ice will melt anytime soon...plus it might refreeze again tonight

[redneckweather]

Everything is now melting quickly here at my house just south of Lake Conroe Dam. Wasn't expecting that so early. Water is now pouring off the roof and into the gutters.

[ticka1]

The 12Z GFS has come into somewhat agreement with what the 00Z Canadian had suggested overnight. After a strong Arctic front arrives next Monday afternoon/evening when our temperature may drop to the low to mid 20's, a robust upper air disturbance drops ESE across Mexico and heads across the Southern half of Texas Tuesday evening/early Wednesday.

are you saying this MIGHT happen again next week? seriously???

[tireman4]

As Ntwx over at S2K stated, the GFS has been amazing on models 3-5 days out. Next week could be interesting. Stay tuned.

[stormlover]

I thought the CMC model did really well with this winter system, it always had more moisture and never backed away from it.

[cperk]

The 12Z GFS has come into somewhat agreement with what the 00Z Canadian had suggested overnight. After a strong Arctic front arrives next Monday afternoon/evening when our temperature may drop to the low to mid 20's, a robust upper air disturbance drops ESE across Mexico and heads across the Southern half of Texas Tuesday evening/early Wednesday.

are you saying this MIGHT happen again next week? seriously???

Yes I think that's exactly what he's saying.

[randybpt]

So all this might happen again srainhoustex

[Kingwood31]

That's a big "might"

[srainhoutx]

are you saying this MIGHT happen again next week? seriously???

As we mentioned a week or two ago, the pattern is shifting back to a somewhat similar synoptic 500mb pattern that is not all that different from what we witnessed in late November. Our source Region of Eastern Alaska/Western Canada will reload with a very strong N Pacific/Gulf of Alaska Ridge with a very negative EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) regime. The PNA (Pacific/North America Oscillation) will drop a negative value suggesting a deep trough develops into the Great Basin and Central North America. Strong shots of very cold air that has been building over Siberia will head across the N Pole and settle on our side of the world. Disturbances at the upper level tend to ride up and over the developing NE Pacific Ridge and drop S into the base of that developing trough. We still have a few weeks for very cold air across our Region as well as disturbance crossing Mexico. We are in the climatological 'prime time' for wintry weather for our Region after all.

[randybpt]

Come on !!! Really what time frame next week ?

[cperk]

That's a big "might"

I won't say big as mentioned on the previous page the GFS 3 to 5 days out has been pretty good.

[tireman4]

As I was stating earlier and restating what Ntwx and Orangeblood at S2K said ( They have the models to back it up)...


With another 2013-14 Texas Winter weather event in the books, it should be noted once again that the GFS had another coup for this winter. It has been deadly within the 5-6 day range the past few months.
Now onward to the next potential setup, it has been awhile since I've seen so much agreement for extreme cold on the extended guidance. The retrograding pattern that was advertised is still on going. Ensembles develop a deep trough in the middle of the country locked by ridging above. Spokes of storms and cold to the mountain west and bleeding cold to the east. Don't look away or you might be caught off guard, as JB likes to say I quote "storms and rumors of storms."

Now again, we are speculating and this is where this board is great. We like to look and analyze items before they even come into view. That is why I am so grateful to the pro and amateur mets that help on this board. You all make this board what Dan envisioned. A great place for the exchange of weather ideas. As I stated in my post, stay tuned. Winter weather in Houston, let alone Texas is tricky to forecast, at best.

[Ptarmigan]

As we mentioned a week or two ago, the pattern is shifting back to a somewhat similar synoptic 500mb pattern that is not all that different from what we witnessed in late November. Our source Region of Eastern Alaska/Western Canada will reload with a very strong N Pacific/Gulf of Alaska Ridge with a very negative EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) regime. The PNA (Pacific/North America Oscillation) will drop a negative value suggesting a deep trough develops into the Great Basin and Central North America. Strong shots of very cold air that has been building over Siberia will head across the N Pole and settle on our side of the world. Disturbances at the upper level tend to ride up and over the developing NE Pacific Ridge and drop S into the base of that developing trough. We still have a few weeks for very cold air across our Region as well as disturbance crossing Mexico. We are in the climatological 'prime time' for wintry weather for our Region after all.

Not often we see two ice storm events in the same winter.

[ronyan]

are you saying this MIGHT happen again next week? seriously???

As we mentioned a week or two ago, the pattern is shifting back to a somewhat similar synoptic 500mb pattern that is not all that different from what we witnessed in late November. Our source Region of Eastern Alaska/Western Canada will reload with a very strong N Pacific/Gulf of Alaska Ridge with a very negative EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) regime. The PNA (Pacific/North America Oscillation) will drop a negative value suggesting a deep trough develops into the Great Basin and Central North America. Strong shots of very cold air that has been building over Siberia will head across the N Pole and settle on our side of the world. Disturbances at the upper level tend to ride up and over the developing NE Pacific Ridge and drop S into the base of that developing trough. We still have a few weeks for very cold air across our Region as well as disturbance crossing Mexico. We are in the climatological 'prime time' for wintry weather for our Region after all.

The temperatures are very cold in Siberia currently, widespread -40s and -50s and even a few -60s. The king of cold for now is Verhojansk -65F. We will need to monitor to see if the cross polar flow develops as suggested by a -EPO and -WPO. This would re-load Canada with bitter cold air, combined with the forecast for the PNA to go negative, this could set the stage for an impressive arctic outbreak in the center of the US come February.

Currently the temps in Western Canada are well above average, watch for that to change dramatically if/when cross polar flow is established.

[jasons2k]

It is drying-out quickly up here now. Onto the next...

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Lingering impacts of freezing/frozen precipitation overnight continues.

Temperature fall has steadied in the last hour and visible satellite images show some good breaks moving into the area from the WNW and NW. Based on latest short term guidance that is actually matching temperature trends…looks like a good part of the area will rise to freezing in the noon to 100pm time period and above freezing by 300pm. This should allow melting of ice on most roadways…but shaded areas will retain ice….especially any roads under freeway overpasses.

North winds continue to blow in the 10-15mph range, so once the ice is melted on the roads there should be some good drying. In fact RH values have fallen from near 96% this morning to 75% currently as dry air continues to pour into the area now that the precipitation has ended.

Should stay above freezing into the early evening hours and then begin to fall back below freezing in the 1000-1100pm time frame tonight mainly away from the coast. Any remaining moisture on the bridges and overpasses will likely re-freeze, but this is highly dependent on the amount of melting and drying this afternoon.

Starting to see some very slow improvements on areas roadways.

[TxJohn]

It's still below freezing at 29 degrees and whatever little ice we accumulated here in my area is MELTING. why? Lol...roads are dry in my neighborhood....everything is pretty much drying out and has been dry since I woke up at around 8am. In my area we just got a little coating of ice...no big deal here....this isn't anything compared to the last ice storm that hit my area.

Still don't get how stuff is melting in 29 degrees...

And regarding the potential next week. I'm not buying anything....things were looking promising for my area up until the hour before this event happened...and nothing really happened for my area. So I personally won't be taking the models seriously....

Parts of Louisiana got some good SNOW out of this....that wasn't even in the forecast....


I say on to the next as well....but if anything it'll be a repeat for my area next week...just a tiny bit of ice.