January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[Baseballdude2915]

Heller is on point. Good and as accurate summary one can make prior to watching the low begin to move into the area . Still an exciting and highly dynamic event so let's keep our heads up.

[Wood6818]

My initial observations looking out across TX and OK today are that the airmass is not as cold as the models had been predicting a few days ago. This is why the models have trended a little warmer with temps in the past few runs. I'm not too hopeful of seeing any snow in central Houston tomorrow. Can't rule it out, but I'm expecting mostly freezing rain and sleet to ice up bridges/overpasses during the afternoon. Surface roads will probably remain ice-free. Similar to last Friday.

Well That just about sums it right there to me. if the colder air is not in place then thats issue number one right?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It's 57 in my area...I thought we were supposed to be in the upper 40s by now? The front is coming in warmer than expected.

No its not... the cold air hasn't transferred down yet. It's coming.

[TexasMetBlake]

It's 57 in my area...I thought we were supposed to be in the upper 40s by now? The front is coming in warmer than expected.

That's sort of an incorrect statement. The 850 mb front is lagging the surface front by 150 miles or so. College Station is already in the 40s and it's in the mid 30s in Dallas.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It's 57 in my area...I thought we were supposed to be in the upper 40s by now? The front is coming in warmer than expected.

That's sort of an incorrect statement. The 850 mb front is lagging the surface front by 150 miles or so. College Station is already in the 40s and it's in the mid 30s in Dallas.

Candy explained it better than me.

[TexasMetBlake]

Heller is on point. Good and as accurate summary one can make prior to watching the low begin to move into the area . Still an exciting and highly dynamic event so let's keep our heads up.

This is the same guy who predicted 3-5 inches of widespread snow in February 2011, right?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Heller is a good dude, but a notorious model hugger.

[TxJohn]

My initial observations looking out across TX and OK today are that the airmass is not as cold as the models had been predicting a few days ago. This is why the models have trended a little warmer with temps in the past few runs. I'm not too hopeful of seeing any snow in central Houston tomorrow. Can't rule it out, but I'm expecting mostly freezing rain and sleet to ice up bridges/overpasses during the afternoon. Surface roads will probably remain ice-free. Similar to last Friday.

Yup...this seems to be the thinking now. Tim Heller was right after all.....also someone on another forum has been saying no snow, only ice for Houston since the event watching began.

Models are trending drier and warmer.

This is a repeat of Friday...and we can go back and forth all day....but the general thinking right now is freezing rain/sleet. Repeat of Friday. I doubt snow will fall in Houston.....I mean we were supposed to be in the 40s by now...we're in the upper 50s and the sun is peeking out!

Some people will be disappointed that they don't get the 3 inches to 6 inches of snow predicted.

I saw this coming....but.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'm curious what Cosgrove thinks of the situation.

[Kingwood31]

My initial observations looking out across TX and OK today are that the airmass is not as cold as the models had been predicting a few days ago. This is why the models have trended a little warmer with temps in the past few runs. I'm not too hopeful of seeing any snow in central Houston tomorrow. Can't rule it out, but I'm expecting mostly freezing rain and sleet to ice up bridges/overpasses during the afternoon. Surface roads will probably remain ice-free. Similar to last Friday.

Yup...this seems to be the thinking now. Tim Heller was right after all.....also someone on another forum has been saying no snow, only ice for Houston since the event watching began.

Models are trending drier and warmer.

This is a repeat of Friday...and we can go back and forth all day....but the general thinking right now is freezing rain/sleet. Repeat of Friday. I doubt snow will fall in Houston.....I mean we were supposed to be in the 40s by now...we're in the upper 50s and the sun is peeking out!

Some people will be disappointed that they don't get the 3 inches to 6 inches of snow predicted.

Chill man,the mets have said here NUMEROUS times the cold air will get here tonight.. It's lagging behind

I saw this coming....but.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

My initial observations looking out across TX and OK today are that the airmass is not as cold as the models had been predicting a few days ago. This is why the models have trended a little warmer with temps in the past few runs. I'm not too hopeful of seeing any snow in central Houston tomorrow. Can't rule it out, but I'm expecting mostly freezing rain and sleet to ice up bridges/overpasses during the afternoon. Surface roads will probably remain ice-free. Similar to last Friday.

Yup...this seems to be the thinking now. Tim Heller was right after all.....also someone on another forum has been saying no snow, only ice for Houston since the event watching began.

Models are trending drier and warmer.

This is a repeat of Friday...and we can go back and forth all day....but the general thinking right now is freezing rain/sleet. Repeat of Friday. I doubt snow will fall in Houston.....I mean we were supposed to be in the 40s by now...we're in the upper 50s and the sun is peeking out! Some people will be disappointed that they don't get the 3 inches to 6 inches of snow predicted.

I saw this coming....but.

It doesn't matter where we are supposed to be temp wise. The bolded part is immaterial. The 850 lag is a little slower and will come and take us below freezing.

And you mean to tell me the guy that says he knows nothing about Meteorology and asks frequent questions, "saw this coming" ... Okay....

Just say you are a pessimist and you are taking your feelings out on the board. I can appreciate that.

[Kingwood31]

David Paul's fb page...


Update: Winter Storm Warning in effect for Tuesday. Icy bridges expected. This looks like a repeat of last Fridays winter mix, only a bit later start. Here's the Timeline:

6am-9am: Sleet and snow begin to fall in our northern third before sunrise Tuesday. Bridges and overpasses from Huntsville to Conroe will quickly ice up.

9am-3pm: Sleet begins mid morning along the I-10 corridor and bridges from the Woodlands to Houston and Katy to Baytown will ice up quickly. Ice accumulations of .10" of ice/sleet and 1/2" to an inch of snow on top of the ice possible. What a mess.

Noon-6pm: Looks to start as a cold rain from Pearland south to Galveston, then slowly turns over to freezing rain and sleet by mid afternoon and early evening. Again, Ice bridges and overpasses including the Galveston causeway will be the main threat.

This is southeast Texas, so as usual, things could change. Please share and check back for updates. I'll be here updating through the night.

[jabcwb2]

[quote][/quote]

P-types (Updated):

North of HWY 105: sleet with some snow

North of US 59 (SW) and I-10 (E) of Houston: freezing rain mixed with some sleet, snow flurries possible toward the end

Coast to US 59 (SW) and I-10 (E): freezing rain changing to freezing rain and sleet mix, a few flurries possible

Accumulations: (Updated)

Hwy 105 north: 1-1.5 inches of snow. A trace - .05 of an inch of ice

US 59 north: .05 to .15 inch of ice/sleet. Trace amounts of snow

Coast to US 59: .10 to .15 inch of ice/sleet. Dusting of snow possible

Matagorda Bay area: .05-.10 inch of ice accumulation.

Based on what I read from Jeff's most current update, most precip appears to be on the east side of Houston?

[TxJohn]

I may not have a met degree and such...but I do tons of reading from multiple sources and I understand the very basics and can follow pretty well....and the general trend is there..

Tim Heller is gonna nail this forecast. I expect other mets to jump on this train in their 10pm weather reports.

[Andrew]

I may not have a met degree and such...but I do tons of reading from multiple sources and I understand the very basics and can follow pretty well....and the general trend is there..

Tim Heller is gonna nail this forecast. I expect other mets to jump on this train in their 10pm weather reports.

No point in arguing about it now. We will see who verifies and who is the supreme forecaster after the event happens. Right now arguing about that is useless.


On another note, it is interesting to note that we are starting to see some returns out west of San Antonio. Water vapor shows some good mid level moisture crossing the region from the Pacific. The shortwave coming from the lee of the rockies is a little on the dull side and I feel like that could make or break the area.

[djmike]

From the words of Larry Cosgrove on a FB post about 15 min ago.

"Drop the warning fellows...I say the models are on to something in this case, this is Louisiana's storm..."

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I may not have a met degree and such...but I do tons of reading from multiple sources and I understand the very basics and can follow pretty well....and the general trend is there..

Tim Heller is gonna nail this forecast. I expect other mets to jump on this train in their 10pm weather reports.

I'm just repeating what you've told us the past month on this board. That's all. Most of us here don't have a met degree here and are amateur enthusiasts.

With that said, rule #1 of discussing Weather, espeicially in SE Texas.... Don't speak in absolutes. You tend to do that a lot, and some of the new people here might mistake you for a subject matter expert.

Second, you remind me of my best friends when it comes to sports. He's the eternal pessimist. Harp on how the Aggies or Texans are going to lose or how they will blow it, and when they do lose, say "I told you so..."... when they win, he's hanging naked from the rafters in jubilation, and writes it off as luck. My point is, it's easy going through life being a pessimist and throwing blanket statements against the wall. If you don't think something is going to happen offer some meat and potatoes to your argument.... NOT "so and so said so", because for every "bust" forecast from Heller, there's a material "going to happen" forecast from someone else.

[Ptarmigan]

Another freezing rain with sleet. That is not a good thing. I rather have snow as it is less likely to shut down roads and make it dangerous to drive on.

[Andrew]

I am deleting messages that are not weather related. This is getting out of control and this forum is not here to decide who is a better forecaster and who is to blame. These type of comments are not helpful to anyone.

[Snowman]

models have trended even drier for the whole storm in general. The GFS and the NAM barely show a half inch of precipitation for NOLA