srainhoutx wrote:A strong cold front is pushing S across N Texas at this hour. Light snow is falling just NE of Amarillo and across Northern Oklahoma ushering in much colder air. Tomorrow we will be lucky to reach 50F with gusty NW winds. The high for tomorrow will likely be whatever the lows tonight are reached before the front passes.
Srain, are we still expecting the "big" arctic blast around the 11th/12th?
Also I noticed that next week we remain cloudy even with our 20 degree weather...and rain around that time period. A local met said the upper air pattern doesn't favor snow so there's no chance....what do they mean by this? I remember you said watch out for the middle of next week...
A much stronger Arctic front arrives Saturday night/early Sunday, John. It appears a re enforcing shot of much colder air arrives Monday into Tuesday of next week. I don't see a big moderation regarding the colder temps next week due to a strong NE wind blowing down from where the coldest air will be located. Parts of the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valley Region may see temps near or below zero with wind chill indices near -10 to -20F.
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TxJohn wrote:
Srain, are we still expecting the "big" arctic blast around the 11th/12th?
Also I noticed that next week we remain cloudy even with our 20 degree weather...and rain around that time period. A local met said the upper air pattern doesn't favor snow so there's no chance....what do they mean by this? I remember you said watch out for the middle of next week...
No big Arctic blast is evident in the long-range models. Euro ensembles have Houston in the 50s-60s around the 11th. Next week's cold will be quite short-lived, and with northwest flow aloft (and no passing disturbances) it will be a quite dry cold.
the juniper/cedar pollen can even be "low" & it bothers me, time to stock up on allergy meds again !
Unfortunately, I'm in the same boat although my daily antihistamine seems to be losing the battle at the moment. No wonder. I just saw a tweet from Austin TV met Mark Murray (KVUE) who said today's cedar pollen count is the highest they've registered in 15 years of recording cedar pollen count values.
Strong cold front has progressed across the area this morning leaving cold and gusty north winds in its wake.
Temperatures have continued to fall this morning under strong cold air advection regime in progress with current readings in the low to mid 30’s up north and near 40 along the coast with N winds of 15-25mph and gusts to 40mph. In the past hour Galveston has gusted to 40mph. Low temperatures combined with the strong winds have driven wind chill values into the low 20’s over our northern counties. A wind advisory is in effect for the central and southern parts of the area today, but think this will be marginal with only a few gust to near 40mph mainly before noon. High level cirrus clouds continue to spill NNE across the area, but should gradually push southward leaving mainly clear skies by late afternoon. Not sure temperatures will warm much…and think the mid to upper 40’s this afternoon will be all we can manage under continued cold air advection and partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Quick hitting polar high will be situated over N TX tonight leading to a very cold night across the region. Dewpoints falling into the 10’s and 20’s by late this afternoon with clear skies and expected light winds will result in a widespread freeze across the area tonight. Lows will likely range from the mid 20’s up north to upper 20’s along US 59 to near freezing along the coast. Could see a few locations very near hard freeze criteria tonight especially in those usually cold locations (Conroe).
Polar high moves quickly eastward Friday with southerly wind returning. Clouds expand northward on Saturday and possibly enough moisture return for a few showers with temperatures warming back into the 60’s in a similar day to New Year’s Day.
Big question is how strong will be next front be on Sunday. Pretty good pool of very cold air currently over NW Canada and this appears poised to head SE into the US this weekend. Appears TX will be on the SW edge of this bitter cold air mass, but close enough to possibly produce some of the coldest weather since early 2011. Arctic boundary should pass across the region Sunday morning with temperatures quickly falling during the day on Sunday. GFS model is forecasting some “really” low dewpoints into the 10’s and 1’s across the region by next Monday and with mainly clear skies and a 1038mb arctic high centered over OK by Monday evening it could get fairly cold by Tuesday morning. Current GFS model guidance shows IAH falling to 25 Tuesday morning suggesting hard freeze criteria will be possible for a large part of the region NW of US 59 with lows possibly in the 10’s over our northern counties (GFS currently showing a 21 for College Station). Will have to keep a close eye on just how much of this cold air moves southward and potentially how cold it could get across the area early next week.
Climate:
2013 ended just as the previous four years with below average rainfall across much of the area. BUSH IAH ended the year with 38.84 inches of rainfall or 10.93 inches below normal. Hobby Airport ended 11.59 inches below normal and Galveston 11.52 inches below normal. College Station faired the best with a rainfall departure of only .71 of an inch below normal. I took a look back at the climate for the past 10 years at BUSH IAH and some impressive rainfall statistics emerged.
The normal annual rainfall for BUSH IAH is 49.77 inches:
Recorded rainfall by year:
2003: 45.76
2004: 65.06
2005: 41.21
2006: 57.86
2007: 65.52
2008: 53.00
2009: 47.01
2010: 42.72
2011: 24.57
2013: 42.32
2013: 38.84
The 5-yr total from 2003 to 2008 was 328.85 inches or 79.56 inches above normal for that 5-yr period
The 5-yr total from 2009 to 2013 was 195.46 inches or 53.39 inches below normal
Note that 2013 is the second driest year in the past 10 years only behind the severe drought year of 2011.
To put this into some perspective there is a 132.95 inch rainfall difference between the first 5-yr block and the second 5-yr block. The last 5 years have been very dry across the region and this dry pattern started after the landfall of Hurricane Ike in September 2008. However if you average out the rainfall over the past 10 years BUSH IAH is running a 26.17 inch rainfall surplus and this is due to the “very wet” years from 2003 to 2008 especially 2004 and 2007. A longer term trend in the climate signal would show a rainfall surplus for the area even though the last five years have been dry. It is also interesting to note that the rainfall deficit from 2009 to 2013 of 53.59 inches is over an entire year’s worth of rainfall missing (49.77 inches) where the period from 2003 to 2008 has a surplus of 79.56 inches or well over a year’s worth of rainfall on the positive side…so both astounding statistics effectively cancel each other out in the 10 year averaging of the rainfall.
On the temperature side of things 2013 ended slightly below normal (-.3 of a degree) and this coming off of the hottest year ever recorded for Houston in 2012 and previous very warm years in 2011 and 2010. Much of this cooling was in December which averaged almost 2-4 degrees below normal across the region…so yes it has been cold so far this winter.
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1110 AM EST THU JAN 02 2014
VALID 12Z SUN JAN 05 2014 - 12Z THU JAN 09 2014
...SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IN RECENT HISTORY WILL SPREAD INTO THE
MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY...NORTHEAST...AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...GENERAL FLOW PATTERN AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
THE DOMINANT FEATURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE A DEEP VORTEX
SPINNING ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S./SOUTHERN CANADIAN
BORDER....WHICH WILL CARVE OUT ANOMALOUS HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. A LEADING SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BROAD
TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY A SURFACE LOW WHILE IT TRACKS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND AS THE DEEP VORTEX LIFTS OUT INTO EASTERN
CANADA...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN BEHIND IT.
ALSO...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE BEGINNING TO SUPPRESS OVER THE WESTERN
U.S. SHOULD ALLOW A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES ALOFT TO MOVE INLAND
OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE ANOMALOUS TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. AND
WITH THE TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED STRONG ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...THE
06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF APPEAR TO BE ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE
TRACK/DEPTH OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUT
WEST...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS ALL IN FAVOR OF SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALLOWING WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE
ONSHORE...THERE ARE STILL IMPORTANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES THAT NEED
TO BE RESOLVED. CURRENTLY...THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS
TO OFFER THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION SINCE IT HINTS AT MORE OF A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN RESPONSE TO THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IN PLACE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THE WPC DAY 3-7 FORECAST WAS BASED PREDOMINANTLY ON THE 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH ALIGNED WELL WITH THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF FOR THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IMPULSES
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
A FRIGID AIRMASS SPREADING OVER THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...OHIO
VALLEY...NORTHEAST...AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE THE BIG STORY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF -10 TO -20
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S....BUT THE EPICENTER OF THE BITTER COLD SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY...WHICH COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEARLY 40 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BY MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD...A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW
SHOULD SET UP TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THE SURFACE
CYCLONE WILL ALSO BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS WHILE WRAPPING INLAND OVER
EASTERN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE SHOULD
BEGIN TO MODERATE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS OUT WEST WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. WEAK ENERGY MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD BRING
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/GREAT BASIN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK.
GERHARDT
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srainhoutx - can you tell me what your last post means for SE Texas? from what I've been reading, it's not going to get really cold in the long term for us.
Hello Cristina. The core of the arctic air will slide off to the northeast but we will get a good glancing blow. Cold but dry air will be in store for us the beginning of next week. Nothing out of the ordinary for this time of year. Don't get me wrong, it will be a strong front (short lived) but nothing we haven't seen before.
I like their experimental graphical forecast site, many different options - looks like Fri & Tue nights will get chilly here, per the minimum temperature option
Jacksonville, FL is forecasting a low of 26 and 24 on Monday and Tuesday (real feel in the mid to upper teens)....and Atlanta is forecasting a low of 9 degrees with a real feel temp of -9 on Monday. Now that's some cold weather
Coldest morning of the Winter season so far in NW Harris County. 28F at 4:00 AM and may drop another degree or two before sunrise. The overnight guidance has trended a bit colder with the Arctic front expect to push through late Saturday night into early Sunday. Temperatures may make a run into the low 20's early Monday and Tuesday. Hard Freeze Warnings may be needed for a large portion of SE Texas early next week.
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Widespread freeze ongoing this morning across the area with lows down into the mid 20’s from Conroe to Huntsville and NE toward Lake Livingston. However a much bigger and stronger cold snap is on the way for early next week.
Upper level pattern will remain amplified through the period with high pressure ridging over the eastern Pacific into Alaska which will send another shot of very cold arctic air southward this weekend. Models continue to come in colder and colder with this air mass as more of the air mass pours southward down this plains before shifting eastward. This air mass means business and may set low temperature records in the northern plains which for January is very impressive…the forecast high temperature for Fargo, ND early next week is around -20F. Arctic boundary will plow through the region on Sunday with temperatures quickly falling into the 30’s and 40’s during the day. Luckily winds will stay up Sunday night, but still expect a widespread freeze and wind chill values into the 10’s and 20’s over the entire region.
Big concern is Monday night into Tuesday morning as arctic high builds overhead and winds go nearly calm under clear skies and very low dewpoints (8-16 degrees over the area). Expect temperatures to fall below freezing shortly after sunset and remain below freezing for up to 12-15 hours. Looks like lows could fall into the upper 10’s across our northern counties with low to mid 20’s along the US 59 corridor and even freezing at the coast. Will likely need a hard freeze warning for most areas for next Monday night as many areas will fall below 25 degrees for more than 2 hours. Tropical plants will need protection along with any exposed outdoor pipes and sprinkler systems. We are still a good bit of time before the event so temperatures could trend upward or downward over the weekend…but residents should take advantage of the “warmer” weather on Saturday to prepare for the upcoming very cold conditions.
Large arctic high begins to shift eastward next Wednesday allowing a moderation of temperatures and a return of moisture and possibly some low rain chances to the region.
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The 06Z GFS continued the trend with much below normal temps as well as just how deep this Arctic air mass appears to be. It is somewhat rare to the Polar Vortex displaced so far S into the Western Great Lakes Region. Also of note is the trend for a major Winter Storm to once again wrap up and head NE across Indiana/Ohio into Eastern Canada. Some locations from St Louis on NE may be measuring 6-10 inches of snow. The snow looks to extend as far S as the Texas Panhandle and across Oklahoma after the Artic front passes on Saturday.
01032013 06Z GFS gfs_T2ma_namer_13.png
01032013 06Z GFS gfs_z500a_namer_25.png
01032013 07Z prb_24hsnow_ge01_2014010312f054.gif
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Looks like it shifted a bit West.
Perhaps a little. The Gulf of Alaska Ridge is a bit stronger with its ridging into interior Alaska and there is a bit more of a SE Ridge that was not shown in previous guidance, but mentioned as a possibility by the Climate Prediction Center a couple of days ago. Also we know that the MOS/MAV/MEX text guidance is not doing well at all with the magnitude of the cold air already as witnessed yesterday across the Great Lakes Region into the Mid Atlantic and NE where temperature were a good 10 to 20 degrees below what those text guidance were indicating as night time lows. I don't think we will see that large of a bust down here, but there is still a lot of uncertainty as to just how cold we could get as Jeff mentioned, so stay tuned and take those precautions to protect your property for an good 12-15 hour below freezing if need be.
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This arctic coming down is comparable to drought weather during the summertime. As Ed would say, what good is dry cold weather if their isn't a little fun with it. Good for nothing, that's what. lol Thankfully it will be short lived. I'd rather have a deep Canadian front (high's around 30 and low's around 28) with a low riding over the cold up the Texas coast than this bitter cold dry nose bleed stuff coming down.
