January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[cperk]

All 3 global models (Euro, GFS, CMC) predict significant snow Tuesday from the Texas coast through the FL Panhandle. NAM does, too, by the way. Generally 1-3". That's the only good use for cold. It's rare to see such good agreement on a snow event. We may really have a shot at snow on Tuesday...

Has wxman57's account been hijacked because he doesn't give up on 70 degree weather this easily.

[TxJohn]

NWS just updated their forecast to 40% of wintry weather next Tuesday. But they also added a chance of wintry weather Monday night going into Tuesday into Tuesday night. However now they introducing freezing rain back into the forecast.

I really hope we get snow instead...

[srainhoutx]

All 3 global models (Euro, GFS, CMC) predict significant snow Tuesday from the Texas coast through the FL Panhandle. NAM does, too, by the way. Generally 1-3". That's the only good use for cold. It's rare to see such good agreement on a snow event. We may really have a shot at snow on Tuesday...

Good to have you back home for this event instead of stuck in Mississippi last Thursday when things got a little crazy around here. I know you wanted to be around more, but at least we have you back when the real fun may start...

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Increasing potential for additional widespread winter precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday.

Appears winter precipitation will start during the mid to late morning hours on Tuesday

Another very strong arctic cold front will blast down the plains today and off the TX coast Monday. Temperatures will fall quickly behind this boundary to freezing by Tuesday morning. Upstream analysis of both surface and temperatures aloft suggest this air mass is about as cold as the air mass the first week of January which brought record cold to many locations across the US. An upper level piece of energy will develop into an upper level low over Baja early in the week and it now appears this system will not cut-off and stall out but instead move across the area in the cold air. Forecast models have really trended wetter overnight with liquid amounts pushing well into our local warning criteria for both ice and snow.

P-type:
Incoming air mass is colder than the last air mass both at the surface and aloft which will likely support a range of P-types across the area. Temperatures will be around 30-33 Tuesday morning and look to fall into the mid 20’s during the day on Tuesday with freezing conditions at all locations by late morning. Expect precipitation to break out from SW to NE during the day with various P-types. Still some uncertainty on the exact thermal profiles:

North of a line from Brenham to The Woodlands to Liberty: sleet changing to snow

North of a line from Columbus to Galveston (including metro Houston): freezing rain and sleet changing to sleet and snow

Coast northward: freezing rain changing to freezing rain and sleet

Thermal profiles show only a modest warm layer in the mid layers and it is possible that effective evaporational cooling of falling precipitation could result in a quicker change to more sleet and snow across a greater part of the area. Much of this depends on just how much warm advection there is in the mid levels.

Accumulations:
Freezing rain and sleet at 26-28 is completely different than at 30-31. Colder temperatures support much more efficient ice formation and almost all liquid freezes producing much more significant glaze. Still some disagreement on the actual liquid amounts, but some of the models are showing between .15 and .40 liquid QPF which could be up to 3.0 inches of snow or around .25 of an inch of ice. A couple models show almost no precipitation across the area as they track the Baja feature further south limiting the precipitation to the coastal bend southward.

Changing P-types will also play havoc with accumulations with more snow resulting in greater accumulations and more freezing rain less. Mix them all together or change the phase over different periods will produce varying amounts.

Still have to keep an eye on the dry air to the north which could cut down on accumulations, but this is looking less of an issue since yesterday.

If the thermal profiles hang on to freezing rain longer across our central and coastal areas…icing is going to be fairly significant possibly pushing over .25 of an inch especially with temperatures forecast to be in the mid to upper 20’s. A quick change to sleet and snow would lower the ice accumulation but increase the snow accumulation…possibly a couple of inches.

Impacts:
Still 48 hours out from any onset of adverse conditions and time for things to change…and they will. Just look how much things have changed since Friday evening. Potential is there for some fairly significant impacts to travel and possibly power.

Confidence has increased over yesterday that precipitation will fall with freezing temperatures, but the amounts and type continue to vary and as with most winter weather events in this area…the confidence is usually not great until the event is nearly ongoing.

A winter storm watch will likely be required either this afternoon or early Monday

Will update again this afternoon after all 12Z (600am) model guidance is in.

[stormlover]

12 nam is more north.

[srainhoutx]

12 nam is more north.

Remember the NAM tends to 'overdo' the qpf but if the trends continue, it would certainly bode well for more wintry weather across Coastal Texas into Louisiana.

[redneckweather]

Man oh man oh ma oh man!!! Snow 15 miles to the north of me a couple of days ago and now it looks like snow will be south of me this go around? Is this some kind of sick joke? Srain, I've never asked for any kind of help before but for the love of god get some moisture up here this next go around! lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Upon futher review, it looks like we get in on the action redneckweather.

We may not see the 3-5 inch isolated amounts, but we should see 1-2, maybe 3.

[tireman4]

All 3 global models (Euro, GFS, CMC) predict significant snow Tuesday from the Texas coast through the FL Panhandle. NAM does, too, by the way. Generally 1-3". That's the only good use for cold. It's rare to see such good agreement on a snow event. We may really have a shot at snow on Tuesday...

First, thank you for all you do around here. We so appreciate you and other pro mets ( Candy Cane, Jeff, David Paul, Larry Cosgrove and others) for what you do for us. Second, will they launch balloons at UH and A&M tomorrow and Tuesday? Did it help last event? Third, are you waiting for the 12z models on Monday before committing on amounts for the Houston-Galveston area?

[Kingwood31]

Upon futher review, it looks like we get in on the action redneckweather.

We may not see the 3-5 inch isolated amounts, but we should see 1-2, maybe 3.

Would kingwood see anything this go around?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yes, greater Houston Metro would be in on the watch.

Let me remind people, that the forecast did a pretty damn good job last time. Even if you didn't see much at your house, forecasts aren't for your house, they are for a metro area.

Some will be big winners, and some will see light amounts again that may not be to their liking. I suggest you be positive and hope for the best, because all of the negative nellies around here were the ones who missed out last time.

[Kingwood31]

So northern burbs of houston are consider "greater hou metro!" Sorry still learning I'm not from here so bear with me please

[Portastorm]

Further west-northwest ... this could even be "bigger" for Austin than the last one as the GFS continues to increase its precip (QPF) amounts.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

So northern burbs of houston are consider "greater hou metro!" Sorry still learning I'm not from here so bear with me please

Yes, sorry... the HGX advisory area includes Harris, Montgomery, Trinity, Brazoria, Houston, Brazos, Galveston, Grimes, Walker, Liberty counties.

That includes places like Conroe, Kingwood, College Station, Navasota, Brenham, Crockett, Huntsville, Anahuac, Freeport, Sugar Land, etc.

[tireman4]

Further west-northwest ... this could even be "bigger" for Austin than the last one as the GFS continues to increase its precip (QPF) amounts.

We must have Champ the Charger on a chase. We just must....

[srainhoutx]

Man oh man oh ma oh man!!! Snow 15 miles to the north of me a couple of days ago and now it looks like snow will be south of me this go around? Is this some kind of sick joke? Srain, I've never asked for any kind of help before but for the love of god get some moisture up here this next go around! lol

The updated 09Z SPC SREF ensemble mean looks a bit better for you as well as Portastorm and all of our folks in Central Texas as well as Louisiana.

[Kingwood31]

So northern burbs of houston are consider "greater hou metro!" Sorry still learning I'm not from here so bear with me please

Yes, sorry... the HGX advisory area includes Harris, Montgomery, Trinity, Brazoria, Houston, Brazos, Galveston, Grimes, Walker, Liberty counties.

That includes places like Conroe, Kingwood, College Station, Navasota, Brenham, Crockett, Huntsville, Anahuac, Freeport, Sugar Land, etc.

Gotcha,thanks!

[redneckweather]

I'm liking the trends. I would be just fine with a thin blanket of snow...just to see everything white for a bit. I've been in this house since 2000 and have yet to see white stuff (that stuff they call snow) stick to the ground. We've had some flurries here and there but nothing stuck. We totally missed out on the 2004 Christmas Miracle and this one is bringing back flashbacks. Say it ain't so Porta!

[Portastorm]

Further west-northwest ... this could even be "bigger" for Austin than the last one as the GFS continues to increase its precip (QPF) amounts.

We must have Champ the Charger on a chase. We just must....

If we can ever get anything worth videoing over here, Tireman ... that's the key. I didn't feel like "chasing" an ice storm last night where I'd likely end up one of the vehicles in need of being rescued off an elevated roadway or bridge!

[wxman57]

Last week, all of the time the models are only hinting at a possibility of maybe getting some snow. This time they're all indicating snow, it's just a question of how much. Will be an interesting week...