January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[helloitsb]

0z GFS is slightly wetter, but still not as wet as the Nam.

Same trend though I suppose

[TexasBreeze]

20 degrees is a long ways to go. Still concerns.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Our temps need to start dropping seriously....we're still at 50-52. Dew point at 29 though....so..

You're at 29 and dropping. This isn't a timing thing... When precip starts you will plummet, but in the meantime you will slowly drop. No worries. Temp is the least of my worries now that I see my dew point at 19.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Walked outside... Sprinkles and temp went from 48 to 44 in no time

[Kingwood31]

Tims fb update...


There are some inconsistencies in the evening model runs, which are just now trickling in. One model shows very little precip in Houston with this storm while another is showing .17” of moisture between Tuesday morning and mid-afternoon, falling as freezing rain with some ice pellets mixed in. That’s similar to last Friday, enough to glaze the overpasses.

The late afternoon run of our exclusive PinPoint FutureTrack shows a slightly wider band of freezing rain mixed with sleet (shades of pink) by mid-morning Tuesday.

While some drizzle will fall overnight, temperatures will stay above freezing until daybreak Tuesday. That means the roads might be wet for the morning rush hour, but not necessarily icy.

The duration of the frozen precip is much shorter than last week’s storm with the models ending the freezing rain/sleet by mid-afternoon, followed by some partial clearing. If that happens, the sun might be able to melt the icy bridges and begin to evaporate the moisture. That means the roads might be in better shape late afternoon, than they will be during the midday hours.

I still don’t expect any significant snow, not even in the northern counties this time. The upper atmosphere is just too warm (above freezing).

That said, expect surprises. A burst of moderate to heavy freezing rain and sleet falling in the wrong location could create a big problem on the roads.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Getting a light shower now

[Kingwood31]

David's fb update.....


Update: Ok, latest computer model runs are coming in just a little bet wetter, meaning greater ice/sleet potential, for all of southeast Texas on Tuesday. I see that Austin has increased their forecast from a trace, up, to a half inch of snow.

In our area it still looks like you will have to live from Conroe (Hwy 105) northward to get any real snow (an inch or less in most spots) but it would not surprise me at all for some spots in Houston, Harris county to get at least a few flurries before it ends Tuesday evening. Winter weather has a way of surprising us all here in southeast Texas.

I'll keep you posted here overnight and We go live at 4am, or earlier if warranted, on 11News this morning.

[Kingwood31]

So Tim says precip ends tues afternoon....David says tues evening.....will see

[MontgomeryCoWx]

CS is dropping... Strong north wind too

[TxJohn]

FXUS64 KHGX 280351
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
945 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.UPDATE...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS MEXICO WILL
ULTIMATELY BE THE SPARK THAT INITIATES WHATEVER LIFT WILL GENERATE
TUESDAY PRECIPITATION. WHILE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO TRACK THE
PROGRESSION...OR DOWNSTREAM EVOLUTION...OF ENHANCED OMEGA/PVA
PRODUCED BY THESE WEAK WAVES THEY ARE NEVERTHELESS A MARKER TO TRACK
OR FOLLOW. TONIGHT`S UPDATES WERE TO TEMPS/POPS/WX THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE OF AN ADJUSTMENT. FOR POPS HAVE BLENDED THE
00Z NAM AND THE 12Z WRF (ARW) OF SWATHING HIGH CHANCE/LOW QPF UP
NORTH DURING THE MORNING...TRANSITIONING THIS FURTHER SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES
BEFORE DAWN...TURNING OVER TO A WINTER MIX OF EITHER FREEZING RAIN
OR LIGHT SLEET ALONG AND NORTH THE HIGHWAY 105 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
MORNING. THIS PRECIP TYPE WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE COAST FROM MID-
LATE AM THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY
WARM BUT...JUST UPSTREAM... TEMPS/DEW POINTS ARE BELOW
FREEZING/SINGLE DIGITS. THIS LOWER LAYER DRY AIR FILTERING IN MAY
THWART PRE-DAWN PRECIPITATION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SATURATION
FROM PACIFIC MOISTURE HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE UPPER LAYERS TOMORROW
MORNING FOR ICE CRYSTALS/ SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS TO PARTIALLY MELT
WITHIN A WARMER 5-10K FT LAYER...THEN PARTIALLY RE-FREEZE INTO SLEET
IN THE LOWER 5K FT. ROADWAYS MAY BECOME WET WITH EARLY DAY DRIZZLE
OR VERY LIGHT RAIN...THEN FREEZE THROUGH THE DAY. ICE FORMING ON
ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR TRAVEL
TOMORROW. ALL AND ALL...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS EVENT WILL
UNFOLD SIMILAR TO FRIDAY`S EVENT. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THERE
APPEARS TO BE LESS NORTHERN SNOW ACCUMULATION AND THERE MAY BE MORE
OF A SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA SLEET/ICE PROBLEM GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. 31

[stormlover]

Tim is up and down!' Hasn't been consistent all day!!' He's a all model guy!!

[TxJohn]

NWS upped tomorrows precip chance to 70% for my area....but adds a 40% chance of wintry mix for tonight....but ups our low from 29 to 32.

[jasons2k]

Add Conroe ISD to the list of closures.

[Mr. T]

The 0z GFS is quicker and further east with the upper low. It also has a bit more precip, but not as much as the NAM

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Walked outside... Sprinkles and temp went from 48 to 44 in no time

Exactly what were thinking, dewpoint rose to what though? Much at all?

[TxJohn]

Mayor just announced all city facilities will be closed tomorrow.

[djmike]

Tim is up and down!' Hasn't been consistent all day!!' He's a all model guy!!

I thought the exact same thing when I just read his update. Sounded like he was ready to write it completely off. Oh how things can change in no time. We will see...

[Ptarmigan]

20 degrees is a long ways to go. Still concerns.

Temperatures can drop by over 10 degrees in a short time.

[jasons2k]

DFW: 27/-3 (yes, that's minus a three DP)
College Station: 39/12
Hobby: 53/31

The colder air is finally filtering in....

Edit to add: That Temp/DP spread in College Station would probably immediately drop to freezing with precip/wet bulb cooling.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Walked outside... Sprinkles and temp went from 48 to 44 in no time

Exactly what were thinking, dewpoint rose to what though? Much at all?

Dew point back to 20.7