January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[helloitsb]

EWX now forecasting up to a half inch of snow accumulation for the Austin metro area by morning. Significant upgrade in anticipated winter weather conditions compared to late afternoon forecast.

Obviously there was never any doubt it would be cold enough but apparently there is more moisture for y'all than they originally thought. Do you think this transpires to more moisture for SETX?

IMO, what it means is that the lack of data from Mexico on this upper air system provided questionable integrity with the models we all saw. It was always a possibility and that's why your HGX forecasters stuck to their guns, wisely I think. They knew this was a possibility. It would seem to this amateur weather enthusiast that this development would mean more moisture for SE Texas as well. Stronger system ... a little further north than predicted ... a little wetter.

Good analysis, thanks!

Also, they cancelled my classes at Lone Star, less Emily Dickinson, more weather watching for tonight

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Yep, NAM shows low more to the NE

[tireman4]

[quote="jgreak"]Latest from Jeff..seems out of sync with the latest talk here on the board...anyone care to chime in?

I cannot speak for Jeff. I think he will be on shortly and can answer that straight out. I think he is continuing to watch the system as it starts. He did mention that this is starting two hours earlier than expected. We are talking and discussing in real time, which makes this board amazing. Like Mr. T and I stated, one model does not make a trend and I think Jeff is sticking by that. If it starts a trend in the GFS and Euro, then he will factor that in. Signs that changes are happening. From Porta on S2K:


EWX has updated its forecast for the Austin metro area indicating that up to a half inch of snow accumulation is possible by morning.

Stay tuned folks. As Sraintx states, stepping down...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

With my dew point so low I think the 20s by 6 am look likely if precip comes in abundance. It's a perfect set up for a sharp temp drop.

I'm zip code 77301

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z HIRES NAM is very impressive with the precip shield across our Region. There are multiple embedded upper level wave of energy spreading across S Central and SE Texas extending into Louisiana.

[Paul Robison]

The 00Z HIRES NAM is very impressive with the precip shield across our Region. There are multiple embedded upper level wave of energy spreading across S Central and SE Texas extending into Louisiana.

This means higher icing levels, doesn't it?

[Andrew]

HISD is now closed tomorrow

[TxJohn]

No snow? Too warm aloft?

[jgreak]

All the major school districts have now closed (Humble, Fort Bend, Cy Fair, Houston) for Tuesday

[TexasBreeze]

All the major school districts have now closed (Humble, Fort Bend, Cy Fair, Houston) for Tuesday

Klein ISD closed tomorrow.

[nuby3]

every time the storm is coming from the SW the models struggle as it's blind in Mexico. pops have exploded now on the NWS page 60 tonight and 70 tomorrow

[ajurcat]

I get lost - more precipitation now?

[nuby3]

it's gonna be significant

[jgreak]

Incredible how quickly things can and do change in this part of the world. Stay tuned folks, don't count this one as dead yet!

[cisa]

I will more than likely be one the road Poter to Conroe. Any thought to road conditions 7am to 8:30 ish?

[Portastorm]

Sleet reported in the Hill Country between Kerrville and Junction and some reports surfacing now of light rain mixed with a few sleet pellets in Williamson County, just to the northwest of Austin.

[Kingwood31]

Incredible how quickly things can and do change in this part of the world. Stay tuned folks, don't count this one as dead yet!

And to think 3 hrs ago all hope was lost..well..it might still be...but things r looking better lol

[Texaspirate11]

Bush Airport - 200 plane cancellations
Metro information:
http://www.ridemetro.org/
Metrolift for the disabled will only service those who need immediate medical attention.

[TxJohn]

Our temps need to start dropping seriously....we're still at 50-52. Dew point at 29 though....so..

[don]

0z GFS is slightly wetter, but still not as wet as the Nam.