January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

[Kludge]

It's dropped from 42 to 37 here over the last 2 hours. With gusts to 25 mph the wind chill is around 27... but it feels like 17. I just dashed outside for a minute, and that's the coldest I've felt in a long time...!

[nuby3]

raining already pretty darn hard here at rayford/sawdust and 45.

[Kingwood31]

Gettingsteady rain here in humble/kingwood

[relic57]

Raining here in Atascocita

[sau27]

Is there any credence to the thought that the rain occurring now and any rain that falls this afternoon/evening will potentialy lead to more icing by allowing the surfaces to cool faster through evaporational cooling (especially once the cold winds really begin blowing).

[Kingwood31]

Is there any credence to the thought that the rain occurring now and any rain that falls this afternoon/evening will potentialy lead to more icing by allowing the surfaces to cool faster through evaporational cooling (especially once the cold winds really begin blowing).

Ya I was wondering the same thing...

[nuby3]

SO FUNNY!! I had thought the exact same thing. I think it must have credence then. more cooling too (wet bulb)

**edit to add : current dew point in Waco is in the teens

I think we are in for a snow storm. just my opinion. everything you want to see, we are seeing. models steadily trend colder/wetter. why shouldn't it continue?

[djmike]

New EUROPEAN model painting the area with 1-2 inches of Snow for Friday morning. We'll see if it verifies.

euro.png (82.41 KiB) Viewed 5089 times

[sau27]

Right, I meant will the rain now allow more wet bulb cooling of roads, not that the rain falling now will freeze later.

[Baseballdude2915]

New EUROPEAN model painting the area with 1-2 inches of Snow for Friday morning. We'll see if it verifies.

euro.png

Wonder what it sniffed out to change in that direction. All the way to the coast too. Hmmm.

[Kingwood31]

Anyone know where I can find radar of the entire state to track the precip?

[Baseballdude2915]

Anyone know where I can find radar of the entire state to track the precip?

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php
http://www.corad.org/texas_radar.htm
http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/easter ... ther-radar


Reports of snow in Tyler.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

The 3 inches in central Montgomery County are right over my house.

[Kingwood31]

So the weather channel has named this " winter storm Kronos" lol wow

[srainhoutx]

I just got stuck behind TXDOT for 15 minutes while they were deicing HWY 6 N over the Addicks Reservior. Traffic is a mess on surface streets and I-10 W bound was backed up while TXDOT worked that area as well. Be safe out there folks.

[redneckweather]

The 3 inches in central Montgomery County are right over my house.

Same here. It's been raining pretty darn good at my house for 2+ hours now. Will be interesting to see how this plays out up this way as the temps get near freezing.

[skidog40]

Anyone know where I can find radar of the entire state to track the precip?

intellicast.com they have an interactive map and can choose anything you want

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

***High impact winter storm event approaching region.***

 

Winter Storm Warning extended until noon on Friday.

 

Discussion:

Arctic cold front making good progress into SE TX currently with 100pm temperatures ranging from  38 at Huntsville behind the front to 64 at Angleton ahead of the front. Post frontal winds gusting to 29mph at Lufkin and 25mph at College Station. 100pm freeze line was analyzed from Midland to north of Waco to SE OK and moving SE. Upstream dewpoints over N TX have fallen into the -1’s  with a 19 dewpoint at Waco. Radar is really starting to light up as moisture is being forced up and over the incoming frontal slope leading to pockets of showers and even a few heavy showers. Front will quickly push off the coast over the next 2-3 hours with strong cold air advection developing across the entire region and 40 degree temperatures pushing southward toward the coast.

 

Of note: it is currently 9F at Pampa, TX and 77 at McAllen, TX

 

P-type:

No big changes with the P-type potential everything still looks like mainly a freezing rain and sleet mixture. Could argue for more snow over our NW areas with some of the latest guidance coming in with upwards of 1-2 inches of accumulation with some possibly (about 30% of up to 4 inches of snow around Huntsville to Crockett). Continues to look like changing P-types throughout the event and multiple mixed phases which will play havoc with accumulation amounts. Point being at this point in the game is that impacts look likely regardless of the precipitation type.

 

Accumulation:

Models this morning look a bit wetter again especially the NAM which is really hitting the area hard with accumulation especially right across the central set of counties or along the I-10 and US 59 corridors. SREF members out of SPC also trending at bit wetter which is an average of 30 run meso scale models. I am still very much wary of the extensive amount of dry air to the north of the region (ie the very low dewpoints noted above) that could really hamper accumulation amounts but one cannot deny the model trend since yesterday afternoon has been wetter (from .05 now closer to .20). Latest updated WPC graphics now include a good part of SE TX within a slight risk area of at least .25 of an inch of ice accumulation and HPC graphics are suggesting between .10 and .30 inches of liquid across much of the region with amounts of .25 to .50 south of I-10 and W of I-45 (see below).  

 

Regardless we are likely going to be easily into warning criteria and the warning is already out with good public messaging on impacts so we are splitting hairs some now on accumulation when essentially the impacts will be the same.

 

Only concern is that if we are closer to the .25 inch range we could see more power problems across the area especially given that strong winds will be ongoing all night into Friday. Wind advisory is up for the coastal counties with frequent gust to +30mph. Evaporative cooling effect of strong winds over high bridges and overpasses such as the Galveston Causeway, Fred Hartman Bridge, and any high connector ramps could result in some quicker ice formation than on more protected bridges.    

 

Impacts:

 

Travel continues to look like a really big problem Friday morning with ice and possibly a thick crusty coat on almost all bridges and overpasses. Surface streets should be fine as ground warmth will keep them at or a few degrees above freezing…unless there is more sleet and snow than expected.

 

Again looking at the potential power issues a little closer now especially if we are closer to the .25 of an inch accumulation.

 

 

Have attached newly received briefing graphics from WFO HGX detailing the situation very well.

 

 

Will update again this evening.

 



 



 

 

 

[djmike]

....and now the school delays/closures have begun here in the Golden Triangle!

[djmike]

KBMT/Beaumont - Meteorologist Patrick Vaughn..... Model data has made a turn for the worse as it now appears that 1 to possibly 3 inches of snow is possible for the Lakes. While the Triangle can expect a mix of freezing rain, sleet and now snow .50 - 1 inch possible.