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And the backlash has begun....right before the 4pm newscasts. Houston mets are backtracking and doing damage control.

I'm loving the Facebook posts of our weathermen (speaking on the uncertainty but backing away from the teens) and the comments....

There isn't any backlash, and all temps are still in play.

One thing we know for sure, is we will be below normal.

TxJohn wrote:And the backlash has begun....right before the 4pm newscasts. Houston mets are backtracking and doing damage control.

I'm loving the Facebook posts of our weathermen (speaking on the uncertainty but backing away from the teens) and the comments....

Soon enough, you will learn like the rest of us have that it is generally best to follow the thinking of wxman57 rather than model-to-model/run-to-run shifts and the latest longer-range tv met forecasts. If he doesn't think the models that are losing the cold air/pushing it east will turn out to be accurate, then I won't either...

I don't have a problem with the early heads up on a potential winter event. I understand that the we're talking about a relatively loooong time in model land. I also know that because such occurances are rare in SE Texas, there's not a lot of historical data to work with. I kinda think there is a possiblity we'll get slammed sometime this winter, just don't know when.
I remember the BIg Chill of 1983. It was about 70 in Galveston that morning. By sunset, temps were in the low 30's and dropping. I also remember patching busted pipes under the house in 20 degree weather and waiting in long lines to buy plumbing supplies. A lot of the older houses have pier and beam foundations with exposed pipes. Since prolonged freezes don't happen that often, wrapped pipes were rare.

That said, being forewarned of a possible prolonged freeze might get people thinking about preparing, just sayin'.

That's the idea Stormrider, just an early heads up on what COULD be coming so people can plan ahead. If we don't get pipe busting cold, I'll be very happy.

Thank you for posting David. Your presence here is most welcomed. The GFS is notorious about losing systems about 3-5 days before the event and then they "suddenly" appear again. We are still WAY out before the models finally settle down. There will be lots to talk about as the days wear on until Christmas. My advice ( and I am only an amateur here) is to be prepared for whatever comes our way and be vigilant. This will indeed be a "bear watch" the rest of this month.

So David Paul said highs in the 20s yesterday and today he says 50s. I'd say that's quite a retraction.

People getting so worked up over model forecasts 2 weeks away is just crazy. Models change daily. It was supposed to be brutal cold low 20's this week according to GFS runs from earlier last week. It didn't verify. Extremes are guaranteed in runs 2 wks away.

TxJohn wrote:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:

TxJohn wrote:I'm excitedly waiting for this evening's newscasts. It'll be quite funny.

We got another emotional one from model to model run. Is this Paul Robison redux?

Actually, tonight's forecast will probably say "there's a lot of uncertainty in regards to Christmas week, but we continue to be on lookout for an arctic intrustion...." or something like that.

And the story goes on to say:
"Models are starting to trend away from the potential of dangerously cold Arctic air however. If this trend continues SE Texas may dodge the bullet....which is good news because we don't need any busted pipes and dangerously cold weather. But stay tuned as the models are having a hard time with this Arctic intrusion...we're not a 100% safe just yet ok folks *goes to green screen* "

Thank you for mentioning me. Sorry to troll but unfortunately I got a pet peeve here folks and it goes like this:


Everybody's talking about burst pipes and water deluges. And yes, that's a legit concern, but....

BUT.......

WHAT ABOUT POWER LINES AND ELECTRICITY?
Have y'all forgotten that it was only two years ago that ERCOT ran rolling blackouts because of these temperatures?!?!


Please say this isn't the same thing as 1989 or 2011!
It'd make me feel a lot better.

http://www.click2houston.com/hot-button ... index.html

Dear All,

I think this needs to be said. Meteorology, for all of its advances in the last 50 years, still is an inexact science. The fine men and women who do this for a living do well at what they do. Forecasting can still be hit and miss. It happens. At least the meteorologists are "talking" about the possibility of colder weather. They are at least preparing you all for the idea that it could happen. As we have learned in these parts, anything can happen. Long range forecasting, although getting better, still has its hits and misses. Remember what Wxman 57 and Srain have preached in the past. 1. Look for trends. Not the ups and downs in models, but the trends. 2. Look for the source region. 3. Stay patient. Models do change before finally settling in on a true trend.

Look at the pattern folks....don't focus so much on the model run to run...but the overall upper level pattern. Ridging along the west coast should raise an eye while ridging into the Arctic Circle or N Russia should have our attention as is being suggested on nearly all of the model guidance. The question then becomes how cold will the air mass be.

The ever increasing dependence on social media allows almost no room for explanation of uncertainty in weather forecasting yet this is the avenue that so many obtain their information today. Attempting to describe the complexities of weather forecasting in 160 characters is nearly impossible, but that is the reality forecasters now face.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:BTW, a little respect for the gold taggers.


Yes, WxMan57 is quite the Debbie Downer, but when you get right down to it, we usually have very boring weather, and most promises of excitement a week off on the models crumble a couple of days before the event, so he is just doing his job.

Glutton for punishment, but I'm already thinking about Severe Season 2014. You'd think it has been so long we'd be due. My roof is 15 years old, it needs replacing anyway, deductible on hail damage probably cheaper than just fixing it.

Unless we have a really mild late winter...the nearshore water temps are running near 50...lots of low clouds and sea fog come this spring.

I think a lot of people aren't paying attention to the synoptic setup that is in play here. While long range models still have issues predicting the synoptic setup 10 days or so out, they are a lot better at predicting this than the mesoscale outcome. A lot of people are trying to look at the mesoscale analysis 10+ days out which is obviously the wrong approach. At the longer range you have to ALWAYS look at the bigger picture. The bigger picture paints a setup for a full latitude trough. Most all models are painting a large collapse for the PNA towards the 20th and a very nice blocking pattern out east. On top of everything the source region looks to be pretty chilly. There is going to be some nice cold air advection that is going to originate from the polar regions. I believe the biggest concern at this point is where (and how far south) the polar vortex transitions. The farther south the polar vortex moves, the colder you can expect to see temperatures around here. Still a lot of time to watch things but a lot of things are pointing towards a cold Christmas.

jeff wrote:

Ed Mahmoud wrote:BTW, a little respect for the gold taggers.


Yes, WxMan57 is quite the Debbie Downer, but when you get right down to it, we usually have very boring weather, and most promises of excitement a week off on the models crumble a couple of days before the event, so he is just doing his job.

Glutton for punishment, but I'm already thinking about Severe Season 2014. You'd think it has been so long we'd be due. My roof is 15 years old, it needs replacing anyway, deductible on hail damage probably cheaper than just fixing it.

Unless we have a really mild late winter...the nearshore water temps are running near 50...lots of low clouds and sea fog come this spring.

Should be interesting to see how the colder nearshore water affect severe weather around these parts come spring.

Andrew wrote:I think a lot of people aren't paying attention to the synoptic setup that is in play here. While long range models still have issues predicting the synoptic setup 10 days or so out, they are a lot better at predicting this than the mesoscale outcome. A lot of people are trying to look at the mesoscale analysis 10+ days out which is obviously the wrong approach. At the longer range you have to ALWAYS look at the bigger picture. The bigger picture paints a setup for a full latitude trough. Most all models are painting a large collapse for the PNA towards the 20th and a very nice blocking pattern out east. On top of everything the source region looks to be pretty chilly. There is going to be some nice cold air advection that is going to originate from the polar regions. I believe the biggest concern at this point is where (and how far south) the polar vortex transitions. The farther south the polar vortex moves, the colder you can expect to see temperatures around here. Still a lot of time to watch things but a lot of things are pointing towards a cold Christmas.

As has been said ad nauseum on this and other forums over the years, the models (especially the GFS) is sometimes good at capturing an event 12-13 days out, losing it in the 6-11 day range, and then focusing in much better at 4-5 days out. At this point anyone who buys into a separate model run from the GFS or Euro (operational not ensemble) is going to go up and down like a carnival ride. You'll get reactions from: "Oh my god, it's a pipe buster" to "Pfff, see ... highs in the 50s, this is all hype." And that is what we are seeing here from some. Do so at your own risk.

Besides 1983 and 1989, there was another arctic blast / ice event....can't pin point the year.......it had been cold and rainy, I stepped outside to go visit my neighbor downstairs and steps were iced over....went to bed that night, heard transformer blow and several hours later, everything was covered in ice. I was working so it was after 1989

That was 1997 in Houston

Portastorm wrote:

Andrew wrote:I think a lot of people aren't paying attention to the synoptic setup that is in play here. While long range models still have issues predicting the synoptic setup 10 days or so out, they are a lot better at predicting this than the mesoscale outcome. A lot of people are trying to look at the mesoscale analysis 10+ days out which is obviously the wrong approach. At the longer range you have to ALWAYS look at the bigger picture. The bigger picture paints a setup for a full latitude trough. Most all models are painting a large collapse for the PNA towards the 20th and a very nice blocking pattern out east. On top of everything the source region looks to be pretty chilly. There is going to be some nice cold air advection that is going to originate from the polar regions. I believe the biggest concern at this point is where (and how far south) the polar vortex transitions. The farther south the polar vortex moves, the colder you can expect to see temperatures around here. Still a lot of time to watch things but a lot of things are pointing towards a cold Christmas.

As has been said ad nauseum on this and other forums over the years, the models (especially the GFS) is sometimes good at capturing an event 12-13 days out, losing it in the 6-11 day range, and then focusing in much better at 4-5 days out. At this point anyone who buys into a separate model run from the GFS or Euro (operational not ensemble) is going to go up and down like a carnival ride. You'll get reactions from: "Oh my god, it's a pipe buster" to "Pfff, see ... highs in the 50s, this is all hype." And that is what we are seeing here from some. Do so at your own risk.

Normally, we tend to look at the Atlantic because of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This winter, we are likely to be more impacted by Pacific in the form of East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and Pacific North America (PNA), which are related.

That is what I have noticed with GFS too. I remember with the February 2011 freeze that the GFS forecasted a freeze 12 to 16 days out, than losing it around 8 to 11 days, and got it better around 5 days.

cristina6871 wrote:Besides 1983 and 1989, there was another arctic blast / ice event....can't pin point the year.......it had been cold and rainy, I stepped outside to go visit my neighbor downstairs and steps were iced over....went to bed that night, heard transformer blow and several hours later, everything was covered in ice. I was working so it was after 1989

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:That was 1997 in Houston

It was the January 1997 freeze. January 1997 started quite warm with highs of 80 on January 3, 1997. Freezing rain fell January 12-14, 1997.