December: New Years Eve Outlook

[wxman57]

No one is saying beach weather for Christmas, and this weekend's front won't miss us. The front will move through between sunrise and noon on Sunday most likely, but it's not going to be a strong Arctic front. It will drop low temps into the 30s with highs in the 50 degree range for early next week. Probably mid 40s for the low and a high in the upper 50s to low 60s for Christmas. You won't find me at the beach with those temps.

[snowman65]

People need to keep in mind that forecasts and model runs more than 10+ days out are just that. No machine can predict the weather that far out because the weather is in constant change. Remember where we live. Do not get wrapped up in the hoopla. It is very rare that a ARCTIC OUTBREAK forecast, anything outside of 7 days, actually happens. If we ever get lows in the 30's and highs around 50 over Christmas here, I call it a success. Don't get me wrong, I love bone chilling cold spells, but I also remain realistic when it comes to weather in S.E TX, and know these events are very rare. It's all about timing with these systems. Dec 23-27 is a very small window for it to hit. It just goes with living here....I don't make the rules

[srainhoutx]

Morning Update from Jeff:

Cold polar high pressure over the region this morning with temperatures in the upper 20’s to low 30’s at many locations.

Current polar high will begin to move eastward later today allowing weak onshore flow to develop. Still expecting sunny skies and a gradual warming trend through the end of the week. South winds and moisture return will really get cranking about Wednesday as dewpoints surge into the 60’s by Thursday. With nearshore water temperatures running in the 51-57 degree range, expect the development of dense sea fog from Wednesday night into the weekend as the incoming warm moist air mass is chilled to saturation by the cool shelf waters. May not see much if any improvement during the day along the coast Thursday-Saturday with fog spreading inland each evening. Overnight lows will warm from near freezing this morning to the 60’s by Friday with afternoon highs warming into the 70’s by Wednesday and Thursday.

Next storm system to affect the area will begin to take shape over the SW US this week and approach TX late in the week into next weekend. A sustained period of onshore flow will boost moisture levels by the end of the week. Additionally jet stream dynamics looks fairly favorable for thunderstorms will this system especially on Saturday. Could even see some severe storms if instability is enough along with some heavy rainfall.

Biggest trend over the weekend has been to back away from the idea of any major arctic outbreak Christmas week. The developing longwave trough looks to remain more progressive with the upper air pattern not fully blocking allowing only a glancing blow of colder air out of Canada. A shallow polar front should arrive into TX over the weekend and could push off the upper TX coast by late Saturday evening, resulting in much colder conditions on Sunday compared to the 70’s on Saturday. Timing of this front remains very much in question as models continue to try and stall it over or just north of our region, and while possible this seems somewhat unlikely given the dense cold nature of the air mass behind the boundary.

 

[jasons2k]

ACK! It was NOT supposed to freeze this am. NWS had me at 36, TV forecasts looked good, and therefore I did not cover my plants.

I woke-up to a chilly 30 degrees! Major bust, people!!!

Needless to say, I am NOT a happy camper this morning. This is worse than having a hard freeze but having prepared for it.

[srainhoutx]

ACK! It was NOT supposed to freeze this am. NWS had me at 36, TV forecasts looked good, and therefore I did not cover my plants.

I woke-up to a chilly 30 degrees! Major bust, people!!!

Needless to say, I am NOT a happy camper this morning. This is worse than having a hard freeze but having prepared for it.

We have heavy frost ALL the way to ground level here in NW Harris County this morning, Jason. My temps was 28 F. It is the heaviest frost we have seen the season so far.

[srainhoutx]

ACK! It was NOT supposed to freeze this am. NWS had me at 36, TV forecasts looked good, and therefore I did not cover my plants.

I woke-up to a chilly 30 degrees! Major bust, people!!!

Needless to say, I am NOT a happy camper this morning. This is worse than having a hard freeze but having prepared for it.

We have heavy frost ALL the way to ground level here in NW Harris County this morning, Jason. My temp was 28 F. It is the heaviest frost we have seen the season so far.

[unome]

7 hrs at or below freezing at Hooks - so far, it looks like most everything survived in our yard in the Cypress area - closer, private weather stations and the meso map's 24-hr low,( http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php ) don't have it getting as cold or staying below freezing that long (for us)

wishing I had put the x-mas lights on the flowering hedges & tossed a blanket over them :(

[TxJohn]

I totally understand that this far out it's hard to make a definitive forecast....but most of the models have been trending warmer in the last few days....you can't ignore that. It's becoming clear that it's gonna be quite mild for the rest of December.

[TxJohn]

Joe bastardi tweeted it won't be as cold as he feared initially.


I guess it's really over for us. Hopefully we get one more significant Arctic blast and snow potential before winter is over

[TxJohn]

Looking at pics of the frost this morning posted by ppl on Twitter. That was some good frost...looked like snow! Very beautiful.

[srainhoutx]

There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the progression and strength of the Baja upper low and just where it will track across Northern Mexico before shearing out. It is also noteworthy that the guidance is suggesting the upper trough may linger to our W a bit longer and may not clear our Region until Christmas Eve. It also looks wet mainly N and E for those with travels plans and potential wintery N of where the surface low that is expected to develop near the lee side of the Southern Rockies.

[TexasBreeze]

Joe bastardi tweeted it won't be as cold as he feared initially.


I guess it's really over for us. Hopefully we get one more significant Arctic blast and snow potential before winter is over

Really? It's not even winter yet...

[srainhoutx]

I would keep an eye on the Friday afternoon into late Saturday time frame. There are growing indications that the Baja upper low crossing Northern Mexico and finally approaching Texas on Saturday may have a bit of negative tilt suggesting a potential severe weather episode may develop across portions of Central/N/SE Texas and points NE. It also appears that there is growing potential for lee side cyclogenesis or a strong surface low pressure system developing near the Panhandle and heading ENE during the weekend. We have transitioned from discussing a potential Arctic Outbreak to that of a potential severe weather event. That is certainly a swing and very typical of our weather extremes in Texas during December.

[Paul Robison]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
520 PM CST MON DEC 16 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST MON DEC 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ON TAP WITH LIGHT WINDS & CLEAR SKIES. GRADUAL
WARMUP THEN ENSUES AS ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES AND INCREASES THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MCLDY CONDITIONS AND ISO WAA DZ/-RA
WILL PROBABLY BE BACK IN THE AREA ON THURS FOLLOWED BY A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SEA FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND.

SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INCREASE GOING INTO SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A
POTENT TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INGREDIENTS FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LOOK LIKE A POSSIBILITY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
HERE AND N TX DEPENDING UPON HOW FINER DETAILS PLAY OUT. RIGHT NOW
IT APPEARS AS THIS S/W MIGHT TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
APPROACHES N TX LATE SAT WITH OTHER FAVORABLE PARAMETERS IN PLACE
(SFC BOUNDARY, STRONG LLVL JET, RRQ OF UPPER JET, LOW LI`S, ETC,
ETC). BEST CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR JUST N OF SE TX ATTM BUT WE`RE
STILL TALKING SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND MODEL GUESSES ARE BOUND TO
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.


P.S. Could be worst destruction of property since Hurricane Andrew ('92). Millions might be left without power thru Christmas Day! STAY TUNED!

[Katdaddy]

Not even near that Paul.

[Paul Robison]

Not even near that Paul.

Also do not appreciate the term: Fun-derstorm! I have seen storms from systems like this generate UNBELIEVABLY powerful lightning and winds. I was nearly killed by an exploding transformer once(!) If SPC is right, wind damage/power outages will be widespread. STAY TUNED!

[cristina6871]

wow! we go from arctic blast to severe weather....now that's Texas weather. Is it Friday night or Saturday night - or during the day the weather is supposed to be rocky?

On another note....I was looking at pictures of the 1973 snow even (was just a tot but there are pictures).......what are the chances that will ever happen again?

[jasons2k]

Somehow I got lucky with this morning's freeze. Just some minor burn on the banana tips, but actually it's not as bad as the last freeze. I'm in a little warm spot so my bananas, cannas, etc. are still intact.

Looking forward to some storms myself on Friday. A few watch boxes and a good old-fashioned squall line would be a nice way to start the holiday break, personal preference.

[jeff]

Not even near that Paul.

Also do not appreciate the term: Fun-derstorm! I have seen storms from systems like this generate UNBELIEVABLY powerful lightning and winds. I was nearly killed by an exploding transformer once(!) If SPC is right, wind damage/power outages will be widespread. STAY TUNED!

I don't think SPC said anything close to that...in fact the Day 4-8 period has too low a potential to include a risk at the moment.

[Paul Robison]

Not even near that Paul.

Also do not appreciate the term: Fun-derstorm! I have seen storms from systems like this generate UNBELIEVABLY powerful lightning and winds. I was nearly killed by an exploding transformer once(!) If SPC is right, wind damage/power outages will be widespread. STAY TUNED!

I don't think SPC said anything close to that...in fact the Day 4-8 period has too low a potential to include a risk at the moment.

There WILL be a risk, I'm sure, Jeff.