December: New Years Eve Outlook

[Paul Robison]

So much for the 80F weather in League City. Temp dropped 20F just N of Corsicana and now its setting at 38F in Roanoke N of Ft Worth. Its back to Winter for NTX. WXman57 would not like this weather

Severe weather potential still looking possible for SE TX tomorrow.

What did I tell you folks? All areas batten down the hatches for hurricane-force winds and extensive power outages!

[srainhoutx]

The front has passed Waco while Mexia is still S of the front.

[Paul Robison]

The front has passed Waco while Mexia is still S of the front.

Dear srainhoutx:

Does this mean we're better off here in houston than folks in the rest of southeast texas are?

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-212145-
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-
LIBERTY-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
343 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTH OF A COLLEGE STATION TO CROCKETT LINE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF TORNADO. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM MOVING INTO THE
AREA TOWARDS 6 AM SATURDAY. ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND THROUGH THE
MORNING ON SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO
TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE STORMS
WILL MOVE INTO THE COLLEGE STATION AREA BETWEEN 3 AM AND 8 AM
SATURDAY MORNING AND OVERSPREAD THE REST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM
7AM TO 3 PM SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREAT EXISTS FROM NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 MAINLY FROM BRENHAM TO CLEVELAND TEXAS. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND SMALL HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT. THERE IS STILL
SOME POSSIBILITY THAT A CAP OF WARM AIR COULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHICH WILL LIMIT STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR ACTIVATION
ON SATURDAY.

[TxJohn]

Hopefully the front keeps on coming down! Please don't stall....

[Paul Robison]

Hopefully the front keeps on coming down! Please don't stall....

Don't understand. Please explain!

[skidog40]

Hopefully the front keeps on coming down! Please don't stall....

the front is moving fast

[TxJohn]

Hopefully the front keeps on coming down! Please don't stall....

the front is moving fast

GOOD! Chanel 13 weather said it'll probably stall at college station.....hopefully it passes through Houston before it stalls. That would be interesting.

[srainhoutx]

Paul, as HGX and the SPC have noted, capping issues and if, and that is a big if as we often see here in SE Texas, the cap erodes enough just before the squall line pushes through, then some discrete rotating cells could develop ahead of the main squall line. At this time, only the NAM is suggesting that the cap may erode enough to allow for severe storms to fire ahead of the main line. These situations are almost always driven by mesoscale features that we just will not know until in the morning. Has the SPC outlined a Slight Risk for all of SE Texas? Yes they have. The SPC will also update and refine their Outlooks and analysis overnight and into the daytime hours of tomorrow. Our goals as a weather community is to discuss the parameters and then overnight into tomorrow monitor and pass along information as it develops without the hype. We strive to offer good and factual information as a community and that is why nay folfs as well as National Media follow our Weather Board.: Rest assured that we will be following things closely here as well as our Texas Weather Board Facebook and Twitter feeds. Also there have already been reports of a tornado in Mississippi this afternoon and radar indicated rotation in Arkansas this evening. That is well ahead of the storm system currently S of Arizona crossing Northern Mexico (over a 1000 mile to the W of where severe storms have already developed). Later tonight keep an eye out in SW/S Central Texas for storm development. That will give us some clues as to just how things MAY develop here in SE Texas.

[TxJohn]

Srain what if the front reaches Houston before the pacific front?

[Paul Robison]

Paul, as HGX and the SPC have noted, capping issues and if, and that is a big if as we often see here in SE Texas, the cap erodes enough just before the squall line pushes through, then some discrete rotating cells could develop ahead of the main squall line. At this time, only the NAMis suggesting that the cap may erode enough to allow for severe storms to fire ahead of the main line. These situations are almost always driven by mesoscale features that we just will not know until in the morning. Has the SPC outlined a Slight Risk for all of SE Texas? Yes they have. The SPC will also update and refine their Outlooks and analysis overnight and into the daytime hours of tomorrow. Our goals as a weather community is to discuss the parameters and then overnight into tomorrow monitor and pass along information as it develops without the hype. We strive to offer good and factual information as a community and that is why nay folfs as well as National Media follow our Weather Board.: Rest assured that we will be following things closely here as well as our Texas Weather Board Facebook and Twitter feeds. Also there have already been reports of a tornado in Mississippi this afternoon and radar indicated rotation in Arkansas this evening. That is well ahead of the storm system currently S of Arizona crossing Northern Mexico (over a 1000 mile to the W of where severe storms have already developed). Later tonight keep an eye out in SW/S Central Texas for storm development. That will give us some clues as to just how things MAY develop here in SE Texas.

I guess the GFS and the EURO disagree with the NAM, huh?
Sorry for hype, but when it comes to getting one's power back on after thing like this, visions of CenterPoint Energy busy in River Oaks and Piney Point Village getting those rich people's power back on before the rest of us dance in my head.

[srainhoutx]

John, with the very shallow nature of this cold front (only up to about 1500 ft above the surface from aircraft reporting data, the front will likely stall somewhere near Hearne or just N of Bryan/College Station. The upper low and the veering SW winds should allow the front to slow to a stop before reaching Walker/Montgomery Counties. If it makes it as far S as Grimes and Madison Counties, I'll be very surprised. The Pacific front may not arrive until Sunday morning as the Upper Low and associated surface low track NE.

[Andrew]

John, with the very shallow nature of this cold front (only up to about 1500 ft above the surface from aircraft reporting data, the front will likely stall somewhere near Hearne or just N of Bryan/College Station. The upper low and the veering SW winds should allow the front to slow to a stop before reaching Walker/Montgomery Counties. If it makes it as far S as Grimes and Madison Counties, I'll be very surprised. The Pacific front may not arrive until Sunday morning as the Upper Low and associated surface low track NE.

The front has already slowed quite a bit . I don't expect it to move to much farther south.

[srainhoutx]

Paul, it has absolutely nothing to do with restoring power to any given area. It is always related to restoring Hospitals and other critical infrasture, if possible from an emergency management standpoint. I. Worked for over 20 years in Emergency Management Planning and Operations during m tenure as a fire fighter back in the late 70's here in Houston. I am very familiar with operational plans on a wide scale and actually have written Standard Operating Procedures for Emergency Operations before I retired.

[Andrew]

I ignore the troll, myself.


One of the un-bennies of being a mod or admin, I guess.

We take pride here in letting everyone "express" their opinion and we really try not to get involved, but at the same time there are many people who come to this site looking for reliable information. As a result when things get over hyped to an extreme case we do sometimes have to take action to assure the quality of the board.

[sambucol]

We take pride here in letting everyone "express" their opinion and we really try not to get involved, but at the same time there are many people who come to this site looking for reliable information. As a result when things get over hyped to an extreme case we do sometimes have to take action to assure the quality of the board.

Thank you.

[Paul Robison]

We take pride here in letting everyone "express" their opinion and we really try not to get involved, but at the same time there are many people who come to this site looking for reliable information. As a result when things get over hyped to an extreme case we do sometimes have to take action to assure the quality of the board.

Thank you.

Please accept my humble apologies. I do hope nothing severe happens tomorrow, I won't lie about that.

[cristina6871]

Can someone tell me what that means for the cold air? Does that mean it will not cool down as much as they thought it would? That would be a bummer.

[Andrew]

Can someone tell me what that means for the cold air? Does that mean it will not cool down as much as they thought it would? That would be a bummer.

No, this is expected. Once the shortwave/upper level low moves east then the cold air should filter down. Right now the strong flow or veering from the gulf is stalling it. The low will eventually push it through

[Paul Robison]

Best chance for severe is still north and east of the area, right?

[skidog40]

look at all that cold air in Canada, if i remember the old forecast from a week ago said 20's coming to Houston around this time frame. I see a -52 up in central Canada.