NOVEMBER: Warming Up To End The Month

[srainhoutx]

Precip type via the SPC 09Z SREF for Sunday evening.

[Portastorm]

Morning Porta from between Houston and Galveston. Front just making it's way through S/E Houston now with a pretty impressive line of showers with some embedded thunderstorms. Will be up in Llano area tomorrow through next week...will try and provide updates on conditions while up there. How does Austin area look for wintry precip chances? My daughter is up there at UT.

Greater Houston radar: http://wx.apxsolutionsinc.com/wxradarbaserefmetro.php

Well, you'll certainly have some interesting weather to report on when you're up in Llano County. I'm thinking you'll see some winter up there.

As srainhoutx showed with the map, it's going to be real close here in Austin in terms of whether we see an wintry mix or freezing rain or sleet. Our best chances would probably come Sunday into Monday. Right now, it looks like the metro area will stay just wet but that is subject to change.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 221600Z - 222000Z

SUMMARY...MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS SWRN
INTO CNTRL OK INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

DISCUSSION...SUBTLE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ATOP ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE
APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR RASH OF POST FRONTAL SHOWERS
EVOLVING ACROSS NORTH TX INTO SRN OK. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS A
MORE CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS EVOLVED OVER NWRN TX/SWRN
OK. MEAN FLOW WOULD FAVOR THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING NEWD ALONG/JUST
NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR INTO CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

12 SOUNDINGS FROM OUN/AMA/MAF ALL EXHIBIT A VERY WARM LAYER THAT
WILL ENSURE AT LEAST A MIXED PHASE OF PRECIPITATION.
ADDITIONALLY...WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY RESIDES ACROSS NWRN TX AND
THIS WILL ENCOURAGE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVIER PRECIP RATES. LATEST WINTER ALGORITHMS SUGGEST ICE
PELLETS WILL BE COMMON EARLY ACROSS SWRN OK BUT FREEZING RAIN MAY
BECOME MORE DOMINANT BY AFTERNOON FARTHER EAST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
IS NOT AS COOL AS POINTS WEST.

WHILE MORE CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF I-44...AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN TX
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT/DEVELOP INTO SRN OK BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES
COULD EXCEED .05 INCHES PER HOUR.

..DARROW.. 11/22/2013


ATTN...WFO...OUN...

[srainhoutx]

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1109 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2013

VALID 12Z MON NOV 25 2013 - 12Z FRI NOV 29 2013


...MODEL SPREAD--AND STAKES--REMAIN HIGH WITH FUTURE OF
SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH...

WITH THE FLOW OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA EXPECTED TO OPEN BY THE
MEDIUM RANGE, IMPORTANT SHIFTS IN SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FOLLOW.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE LOCATION AND TYPE OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS ARE FAR
FROM CLEAR AT THIS POINT. THE KEY PLAYERS ARE THE POSITIVE-TILT
TROUGH CURRENTLY LODGED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES
DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND THE STREAM OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS DIPPING INTO
THE CANADIAN-BORDER STATES. TIMING AND AMPLITUDE ARE BOTH
CRITICAL--AND SERIOUSLY IN QUESTION. IF THE SOUTHWESTERN WAVE
EMERGES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING A SLACKENING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY, IT WILL MAKE CONSIDERABLE INROADS INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IF NOT, MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE HERDED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST OR
POINTS OFFSHORE. RELIED ON THE 00Z/22 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE
MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE FOR THE WHOLE NATION, LARGELY DUE TO ITS
INHERENT STABILITY VIA THE SHEAR NUMBER OF INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS--AND ITS SKILLFUL TRACK RECORD. RAIN, THUNDERSTORMS, ICE,
SNOW, AND HIGH WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE THREATS FACING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THE BUSY TRAVEL DAYS BEFORE
THANKSGIVING NEXT WEEK. WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SPECIFICS ONCE THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH ACTUALLY BEGINS TO MOVE.


CISCO

[srainhoutx]

Accumulating sleet reported in Lubbock. Roads are becoming a mess.

[weatherguy425]

Good morning from Lubbock.

I spent the morning doing live shots, and I can tell you roads are a mess! I doubt temps will push 30 until Monday. Whatever is falling (freezing rain/sleet combo) if freezing on even surface roads. To think about snow on top of this come Saturday night, and Sunday...

[srainhoutx]

Good morning from Lubbock.

I spent the morning doing live shots, and I can tell you roads are a mess! I doubt temps will push 30 until Monday. Whatever is falling (freezing rain/sleet combo) if freezing on even surface roads. To think about snow on top of this come Saturday night, and Sunday...

Welcome back weatherguy425.

Not to put the "cart before the horse" so to speak, but the GFS in the extended range has been suggesting we will do this all again early in December. But that will be a different Topic.

[ticka1]

Good morning from Lubbock.

I spent the morning doing live shots, and I can tell you roads are a mess! I doubt temps will push 30 until Monday. Whatever is falling (freezing rain/sleet combo) if freezing on even surface roads. To think about snow on top of this come Saturday night, and Sunday...

Welcome back weatherguy425.

Not to put the "cart before the horse" so to speak, but the GFS in the extended range has been suggesting we will do this all again early in December. But that will be a different Topic.

Does the GFS show any winter fun for us in SE Texas?

[Andrew]

HGX:

image1.jpg

[djmike]

The trend for sleet or freezing rain certainly is shifting much further south and east compared to yesterdays N/NW/Ctrl Tx forecast! Everything seems to be determined by a degree or two difference in the mid/upper atmosphere. Silly, but I hope this trend continues and I get to see 1 pellet here in the Beaumont area. Yes, just 1. I'll be happy camper... lol

[srainhoutx]

Active afternoon across Texas and Oklahoma. Many reports are beginning to come in across Central Texas, mainly in the Hill Country from Kerrville on ENE of some light accumulation freezing rain. Also Lubbock has extended their Ice Storm Warning as travel conditions deteriorate and now reports NW of Ft Worth of sleet and freezing rain. The afternoon Updated Freezing Rain Possibility/Percentages Forecasts are out from the HPC/WPC suggesting a much wider area of concern and increasing chances across the I-35 Corridor and extending closer to portions of SE Texas. It is also noteworthy that the W to E spread now includes portions of NE Mexico into NW Louisiana and Arkansas.

[srainhoutx]

Ed, the ASOS sensor at Alliance is malfunctioning via NWS FWD, so discount that one.

[srainhoutx]

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2013

VALID 00Z SAT NOV 23 2013 - 00Z TUE NOV 26 2013

...DAYS 1-3...

GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...REACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID-DAY MON. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ALREADY IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...IT
APPEARS A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM IS ON TAP FOR THE SOUTH...WITH A
FOCUS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT OVERALL BUT THE FORECAST WAS
WEIGHTED MOST TOWARD THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WITH THE TRACK
OF THE UPPER LOW AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR. THE 09Z SREF MEAN WAS
USED OVER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST IN ADDITION TO
THE NAM...BUT THE SREF WAS WEIGHTED LESS FROM SUN-MON GIVEN THE
BROAD NATURE OF ITS LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF.

FROM TONIGHT INTO SAT EVENING...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST WITH STRONGLY DIFLUENT FLOW
IMPACTING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SNOWFALL HERE WILL BE ELEVATION
DEPENDENT WITH SNOW LEVELS ONLY DOWN TO ABOUT 6000 FT - 7000 FT
FOR THE MOGOLLON RIM IN ARIZONA...BUT AN INITIALLY ROBUST STREAM
OF MOISTURE WILL BE SURGING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THIS MOISTURE
STREAM WEAKENS AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND DURING THE DAY ON SAT BUT
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TIED TO THE UPPER LOW AND LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS INTO THE WASATCH
OF UTAH AND SAN JUANS OF COLORADO. A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BUT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT A
MIXTURE OF SNOW/ICE TO MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ACROSS TEXAS AND NEW
MEXICO.

FROM SAT EVENING INTO SUN EVENING...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A 700 MB LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
ELONGATE AND PERHAPS OPEN UP BY 00Z/25. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY SLEET AND 0.25 INCH ICE ACCUMULATION LIKELY WITH
A PROMINENT WARM NOSE CENTERED NEAR 750 MB AND COLD LAYER FIRMLY
IN PLACE VIA NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS FROM
48 HOURS AGO APPEAR TO BE POORLY RESOLVED WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF
COLD AIR CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS WEST TEXAS...BUT IT IS NOT
CLEAR IF THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE SHORT RANGE WITH
TODAYS NAM/GFS. IT WAS GENERALLY NOTED THAT THE NAM WAS COLDER IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT
THIS DIFFERENCE WAS SPLIT IN THE FORECAST THINKING IN AN ATTEMPT
TO MITIGATE THE KNOWN COLD BIAS IN THE NAM.

FROM SUN EVENING TO MON EVENING...REMNANT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE BENEATH THE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF THE UPPER LOW
BUT THE MOISTURE SOURCE WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
WITH THE NAM/SREF DEPICTING 24 HR ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF .50 TO 1.0
INCH FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF
DALLAS/FORT WORTH. THIS APPEARS OVERDONE BUT THE MODELS HAVE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A .50 TO 1.5 INCH STRIPE OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN
THE 24 HRS ENDING 00Z/26 ACROSS TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...WITH THE
NORTHERN EDGE CO-LOCATED WITH A DEFINED WARM NOSE ATOP A DEFINED
SUB-FREEZING LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. QUESTIONS OF THE DEPTH
OF THE COLD DOME AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE STAYING BELOW FREEZING TO
SUPPORT ICE EXIST. PROBABILITIES REFLECT A LOW-MED CHANCE OF 0.25
INCHES OF ICE...WITH SLEET AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW FARTHER NORTH
TOWARD THE RED RIVER AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS FOR DAY 3.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
342 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE IS TAPERING
OFF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COLD DOME
NEAR THE SURFACE...BUT AMOUNTS AFTER SUNSET SHOULD BE IN THE TRACE
TO FEW HUNDREDTHS AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNRISE. WE HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN IN GILLESPIE AND
KERR COUNTIES. BETWEEN THE REPORTS AND EXPECTATION OF A STEADY
TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY FOR PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE
BURNET...LLANO...BLANCO... AND KENDALL COUNTIES. WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY FREEZING PRECIPITATION IN METRO AUSTIN OR SAN ANTONIO TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CLOUDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT OF MOIST GULF
AIR CONTINUES OVER THE COLD DOME OF AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY...AND THE MAIN CUTOFF
LOW NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL PASS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE LIKELY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...MAYBE UP TO 1/4
INCH OF ICING. WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z
MONDAY. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY BECOME A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL AND WHETHER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
TO WARRANT NO MORE THAN A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

THE UPSHOT FOR PLANNING PURPOSES IS ALL OUTDOOR EVENTS WILL BE
COLD AND DAMP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PATCHY ICING IS LIKELY ON
BRIDGES IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING OF ALL ROADS...PLANTS...AND SURFACES IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...NO SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN METRO SAN ANTONIO. SIMILARLY...NO
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN METRO AUSTIN TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS SUNDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADS.

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
354 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH NOON SATURDAY...

.MOIST GULF AIR LIFTED OVER COLD AIR NEAR THE GROUND WILL COMBINE
WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE GROUND WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS IN THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT EXCEPT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHEN
MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ICING
WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE TIMING...AREA...AND AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION ARE UNCERTAIN...HENCE A WATCH FOR THE PERIODS BEYOND
TONIGHT. THE VERTICAL PROFILE IS CLASSIC FOR FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT...BUT IT COOLS WILL TIME AND APPEARS CLOSER TO A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...NO FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
METRO SAN ANTONIO. METRO AUSTIN HAS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

TXZ171-172-189-190-230600-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.A.0001.131123T1800Z-131125T1800Z/
/O.EXA.KEWX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-131123T1800Z/
LLANO-BURNET-KENDALL-BLANCO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...BOERNE...BLANCO
354 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT PRIMARILY FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NOON
SATURDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...PATCHY ICE MAY DEVELOP ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD BE COVERED AND PETS
BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

TXZ183>188-230600-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WS.A.0001.131123T1800Z-131125T1800Z/
/O.CON.KEWX.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-131123T1800Z/
VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-GILLESPIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DEL RIO...ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...
KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG
354 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT PRIMARILY FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH NOON
SATURDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...PATCHY ICE MAY DEVELOP ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD BE COVERED AND PETS
BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
417 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-230600-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...HOPE...
PRESCOTT...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...MAGNOLIA...EL DORADO...
SHREVEPORT...BOSSIER CITY...MINDEN...HOMER...RUSTON...
FARMERVILLE...MANSFIELD...COUSHATTA...BIENVILLE...JONESBORO...
MONROE...MANY...NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD...COLFAX...COLUMBIA...
JENA...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...
PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...
JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...
CARTHAGE...NACOGDOCHES...CENTER...LUFKIN...SAN AUGUSTINE...
HEMPHILL
417 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

...WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE FOUR
STATE REGION MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE REGION AND COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING.

WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COLD AIR THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET
OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30 WHILE
LIQUID RAIN IS EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY EVENING...A TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED NORTH A LINE FROM MINEOLA TEXAS
TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS. A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND
SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS A LINE FROM TYLER
TEXAS...TO SHREVEPORT AND FARMERVILLE LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ENOUGH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR A TRANSITION TO ALL
LIQUID RAIN.

SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN
INCH. THE GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN A TENTH OF
INCH...ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS EAST TEXAS WEST OF A LINE FROM
MINEOLA TO LONGVIEW.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
TYPE...AMOUNT...AND DURATION. WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED IF TEMPERATURES FAIL TO WARM AS
QUICKLY AS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WHICH WOULD AFFECT
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS.

THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS STILL EVOLVING. AS MORE INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE...THE FORECAST MAY CHANGE.
RESIDENTS...TRAVELLERS...AND ANYONE WITH INTERESTS IN THE FOUR
STATE REGION SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

[PaulEInHouston]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
450 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...
/TONIGHT AND TOMORROW/

THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.

EARLIER TODAY, WE HAD AN AREA OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION AFFECT THE BIG COUNTRY AND PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY
RESULTING IN LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN. WHILE THE ACCUMULATIONS WERE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
IN MOST CASES, THIS STILL CAUSED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS RANGE
FROM LIGHT RAIN TO UNKNOWN PRECIP WHICH IS LIKELY A MIX OF SLEET,
FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN. ELSEWHERE, THE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OR
BECOME VERY LIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FAIRLY GOOD
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH LOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
WITHOUT A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TO
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE INTENSE LIFT, MOST OF THE LIFT FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROVIDED BY ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE COLD AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR AT SNOW PRODUCING TEMPERATURES
OVER THE TOP OF A WARM LAYER (UP TO +7 CELSIUS), AND THEN SUB
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BELOW THE INVERSION TO THE SURFACE, THROUGH
MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS, THE BULK OF ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF EITHER FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT SLEET. AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A SAN SABA TO MASON TO SONORA
LINE MAY ACTUALLY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WITH MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH OF A WINTRY MIX, ALONG WITH ISOLATED TOTALS HIGHER THAN ONE
TENTH, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT
LOWS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR AREAS
GENERALLY NORTH OF AN OZONA TO BRADY TO BROWNWOOD LINE WITH MID 30S
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THAT LINE.

20

.LONG TERM...

THE WINTER STORM WATCH STARTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER WINTRY PRECIPITATION INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY, AS THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES TEXAS. NAM
AND GFS BRING PRECIPITATION BANDS IN...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY, WILL BEGIN IT AT 6 PM. SNOW
MIXTURE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH A COLDER SOUNDING AND A SATURATING PROFILE
IT MAY ALL SLEET AND SNOW IN THE BIG COUNTRY, AS THE NAM SOUNDING
HAS A -6 C MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER COLDER LAYER. FARTHER
SOUTH, ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THERE SHOULD BE MORE FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET MIXTURE. AMOUNTS OF FROZEN PRECIPITATIONS ARE
PROBLEMATIC AS USUAL, BUT COULD SEE AN INCH OF SLEET/SNOW/FROZEN
RAIN MIXTURE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS PUSHED EAST
TO JUNCTION...MASON...BRADY...BROWNWOOD AND SAN SABA, WHERE A
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL OF 1/2 INCH, OR EVEN 3/4 INCH IS POSSIBLE.
IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

WINTERY PRECIPITATION DOES TAPER OFF MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION. WINTERY MIX STILL
POSSIBLE BUT AMOUNTS MAY BE LOW. MAIN WEATHER THREAT MAY BE FROM
JUNCTION TO SAN SABA WHERE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE MAY STILL BE
ONGOING.

A FEW LIGHT LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR FLURRIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. IF THERE
ARE ARE FEW FLURRIES, THE MAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF
I-20.

04

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 29 33 26 30 28 / 50 50 50 70 50
SAN ANGELO 28 33 28 31 27 / 50 70 70 70 50
JUNCTION 32 36 32 33 29 / 60 70 70 80 80

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...COLEMAN...CONCHO...
CROCKETT...FISHER...HASKELL...IRION...JONES...KIMBLE...MASON...
MCCULLOCH...MENARD...NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN SABA...SCHLEICHER...
SHACKELFORD...STERLING...SUTTON...TAYLOR...THROCKMORTON...TOM
GREEN.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BROWN...CALLAHAN...COKE...
COLEMAN...CONCHO...CROCKETT...FISHER...HASKELL...IRION...JONES...
KIMBLE...MASON...MCCULLOCH...MENARD...NOLAN...RUNNELS...SAN
SABA...SCHLEICHER...SHACKELFORD...STERLING...SUTTON...TAYLOR...
THROCKMORTON...TOM GREEN.

[Belmer]

Good evening everyone! Hope everyone is enjoying the cool like weather just in time for the holidays. Just thought I would give a report up here in Norman, OK. First half of the day started off cold and dry. Starting raining/sleeting right around noon and has continued for the better part of the day. Was quite a bit of sleet for a couple of hours, but since has transitioned to mainly all freezing rain. Got a couple pictures of my car a little bit ago. Being from Houston, never thought about buying an ice scraper, though, I'm going to have to add that to my Christmas list it looks like as I currently do not have one and can not get in my car right now as it is frozen shut.
Thankfully, the ice event looks to be diminishing up here as we have a break on Saturday before our next big storm system on Sunday that looks to bring anywhere from 1-4 inches of snow for most of the state along I-40.
For those that like the winter precip in Houston, crossing my fingers y'all see something late Sunday night into Monday morning.

As Srain, has pointed out, things look interesting once again as we get into the first week of December.







Looking from inside my car out my front windshield.

[srainhoutx]

Winter Storm Watch issued for Austin Metro and Winter Storm Warnings issued for Dallas/Ft Worth Metroplex for Sunday into Monday.

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the deepening short wave and a secondary 1051mb Arctic surge dropping S from Canada during the day into tomorrow as the U/L in S California/Arizona moves E across New Mexico and then turns SE across the Lubbock area and heads across Central/SE Texas late on Monday into Tuesday. The 03Z SREF as well as the 06Z HIRES NAM/NAM and the 00Z Euro have been steady with this solution for a couple of cycles. I would not be surprised to see Winter Weather Advisories hoisted for portions of SE and E Texas mainly N off I-10 later today if the trends continue. Also as the U/L/trough swings thru, there may be a chance of some light to moderate snow as the column cools sufficiently before the Winter precip ends late Monday into early Tuesday. It is concerning to see the QPF generation output via some of the guidance and the HPC/WPC did cut the QPF of the NAM almost in half to the .50/1.00 inch range as their in house blend suggests the QPF may be a bit to high. The fly in the ointment continues to be the Coastal Low development offshore of the Lower/Middle Texas Coast and if it will be far enough offshore to allow for the mid levels to sufficiently cool. Regardless this looks like a very messy and rather widespread event and is unseasonably early to see such an event for a large portion of Texas extending E into Arkansas and NW Louisiana. HGX is mentioning they may need to issue a Winter Weather Advisory of areas along and N of a Brenham/Conroe/Huntsville/Lake Livingston line later today or early tomorrow. It is also noteworthy that HGX is mentioning the possibility of snow/sleet/freezing rain into Metro Houston early on Tuesday as the upper low phases with the Northern stream as the precip begins to end. Right now no accumulation is expected. 1-2 inch rainfall amounts area expected as a strong short wave and the Coastal Low pass to our S. Stay Tuned!