NOVEMBER: Warming Up To End The Month
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srainhoutx
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The SPC SREF is suggesting some potential icing problems for portions of N Central Texas extending in to Oklahoma Friday evening into early Saturday.
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an interesting blog on Weather Underground by Christopher C. Burt, Weather Historian - about the front coming thru Texas, more info at the link: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weathe ... trynum=216
A powerful cold front is expected to plow through Texas on Thursday dropping temperatures in Amarillo from the 70°s to 30°s in just a few hours. A little snow may follow. This front will be what they call in Texas a ‘blue norther’. They occur several times every year (and sometimes several times in a single month) from November through April. Here are some extreme examples of the phenomenon.
One of the most extreme blue northers on record occurred just last April (2013) when a cold front plowed south into northern Texas and dropped the temperature at Amarillo from a high of 89°F on the afternoon of April 22nd to a coldest-ever-so-late-in-the-season temperature of 20°F by the morning of April 24th. This, however, does not entirely explain just how extreme and fast the drop in temperature was. After reaching a record high of 89°F at 4 p.m. on April 22nd in Amarillo the thermometer had fallen to 86°F at 7 p.m. just prior to the frontal passage. The wind was blowing from the SW at 14 mph. By 9 p.m. it was 58°F with the wind from the north at 37 mph with gusts to 55 mph. By midnight it was 38°F and by 2 a.m. on April 23rd it was 33°F and snowing. The temperature continued to drop to a low of 29°F by 6 a.m. So, all in all, a 60°F (33.3°C) drop in temperature over just about 12 hours.
But wait, there’s more! There were FOUR blue northers to hit Texas in just that single month of April 2013! The first one hit on April 8-9 with a similar drop in temperature at Amarillo from 89°F on April 8th to 29°F on April 9th with winds gusting to almost 50 mph. Another struck on April 14-15 dropping the temperature from 88°F to 39°F and then yet another struck on April 17-18th.
Perhaps the single most extreme blue norther in Texas history was that associated with the famous arctic outbreak of February 1899, the greatest such in the annals of U.S. weather history. In his classic weather book Texas Weather author George W. Bomar states that temperatures on the afternoon of February 3, 1899 had almost reached 100° at sites along the Rio Grande (specifically 99° at Fort Ringgold and 97° at Fort McIntosh—now known as Laredo). The cold front swept through Texas on February 8-9 and by February 12th the dome of high pressure was centered over the state with Abilene measuring a barometric pressure reading of 31.06”. Temperatures had fallen below zero F° across the northern two-thirds of the state with a minimum of -23°F at Tulia on February 12th. Fort Ringgold registered 7°F and McIntosh (Laredo) 5°F also on the 12th, all-time record low temperatures for the sites.
The blue norther expected to race across Texas on Thursday is not expected to be of historical significance with temperature drops of only about 40°F at most locations.
A powerful cold front is expected to plow through Texas on Thursday dropping temperatures in Amarillo from the 70°s to 30°s in just a few hours. A little snow may follow. This front will be what they call in Texas a ‘blue norther’. They occur several times every year (and sometimes several times in a single month) from November through April. Here are some extreme examples of the phenomenon.
One of the most extreme blue northers on record occurred just last April (2013) when a cold front plowed south into northern Texas and dropped the temperature at Amarillo from a high of 89°F on the afternoon of April 22nd to a coldest-ever-so-late-in-the-season temperature of 20°F by the morning of April 24th. This, however, does not entirely explain just how extreme and fast the drop in temperature was. After reaching a record high of 89°F at 4 p.m. on April 22nd in Amarillo the thermometer had fallen to 86°F at 7 p.m. just prior to the frontal passage. The wind was blowing from the SW at 14 mph. By 9 p.m. it was 58°F with the wind from the north at 37 mph with gusts to 55 mph. By midnight it was 38°F and by 2 a.m. on April 23rd it was 33°F and snowing. The temperature continued to drop to a low of 29°F by 6 a.m. So, all in all, a 60°F (33.3°C) drop in temperature over just about 12 hours.
But wait, there’s more! There were FOUR blue northers to hit Texas in just that single month of April 2013! The first one hit on April 8-9 with a similar drop in temperature at Amarillo from 89°F on April 8th to 29°F on April 9th with winds gusting to almost 50 mph. Another struck on April 14-15 dropping the temperature from 88°F to 39°F and then yet another struck on April 17-18th.
Perhaps the single most extreme blue norther in Texas history was that associated with the famous arctic outbreak of February 1899, the greatest such in the annals of U.S. weather history. In his classic weather book Texas Weather author George W. Bomar states that temperatures on the afternoon of February 3, 1899 had almost reached 100° at sites along the Rio Grande (specifically 99° at Fort Ringgold and 97° at Fort McIntosh—now known as Laredo). The cold front swept through Texas on February 8-9 and by February 12th the dome of high pressure was centered over the state with Abilene measuring a barometric pressure reading of 31.06”. Temperatures had fallen below zero F° across the northern two-thirds of the state with a minimum of -23°F at Tulia on February 12th. Fort Ringgold registered 7°F and McIntosh (Laredo) 5°F also on the 12th, all-time record low temperatures for the sites.
The blue norther expected to race across Texas on Thursday is not expected to be of historical significance with temperature drops of only about 40°F at most locations.
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srainhoutx
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A complex and complicated forecast for much of Texas and Oklahoma is unfolding this morning regarding the timing of the arrival of the much talked about Arctic front and what we may see weather wise into the weekend extending into early Tuesday.
Currently surface observations suggest the Arctic boundary is moving faster than previously though and is running a good 12-18 hours faster than was expected. As is usually the case with a very dense and cold air mass, this is not too surprising that the computer model would under estimate the speed. First things first…showers are moving N to NE from the Gulf and that should continue today and increase in coverage across the Region and we should begin to see some storms develop to our NW across Oklahoma and N Texas later tonight. A line of showers and storms will sweep S during the overnight hours tonight ushering in the arrival of the coldest air of the season on Friday.
Wintry Weather Advisories have been issued across Oklahoma and will likely be needed later today across the Panhandle and further S into the Permian Basin and the Big Country near Midland/Odessa. There is a chance that Winter Weather Advisories or even a Winter Storm Watch will be hoisted for the Dallas/Ft Worth area as freezing temps at the surface and over running precip begins to fall leading to an ice threat mainly on elevated surfaces by Friday afternoon into the evening hours.
We may see a brief break from the over running precip as the much talked about upper air cold core close low develops in Southern California. This feature is expected to deepen rather rapidly and there are some strong indications that this low will be near the 3 standard deviation below normal for late November standards making it a strong storm system that we usually do not see this time of year. Abundant tropical moisture from the Pacific will wrap up this storm system and indications are that it will be a bit further E over Arizona bringing flooding rains to the Phoenix area and heavy higher elevation snow to Eastern AZ into New Mexico.
This storm system appears to stay rather strong and remain a closed low as it cross New Mexico on Saturday and moves E into Texas on Sunday. The current projected storm track appears to be just S of Lubbock to near Austin and then very close to SE Texas during the morning hours of Monday. The latest run of the 06Z GFS brings this upper air feature very close to Bryan/College Station and Montgomery County, so it will be worth monitoring. There still remains relative good agreement that a Coastal Low will develop along the Middle Texas Coast on Sunday and slide NE toward Lake Charles on Monday into Tuesday. Currently the latest HPC/WPC Day 3 Outlook does suggest an icing potential for portions of Central and E Texas. Temperature profiles at the surface continue to drop with each run of the computer models, but warmer air above the shallow dense cold air at the surface do not support snow. What we may see is a chance of sleet as the cold air layer deepens a bit to about 3000 ft. Areas near Dallas may see heavy sleet thus warranting a Winter Storm Watch. Temps across SE Texas are expected to drop into the mid 30’s or very close to freezing Sunday night into Monday morning. Regardless, it is going to feel very cold with brisk N to NE winds and very chilly rain at the least. Stay Tuned.
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EST THU NOV 21 2013
VALID 12Z THU NOV 21 2013 - 12Z SUN NOV 24 2013
...DAY 1 ...
...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH FORCES THE BEST BAROCLINICITY
SOUTH. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AFFORDED BY RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
DYNAMICS ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWS ACROSS THE FAVORED
TERRAIN OF WESTERN WY WHICH THEN SAGS SOUTH AND EAST. LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WHERE THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO SUPPORT
SNOW...BUT ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS OVER PARTS OF KS/OK LATE
IN THE PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.
...CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE GREAT BASIN...
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROF
WILL BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NV AS THE TROF MOVES INLAND. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE INITIALLY PRETTY HIGH BUT DECREASE AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
VALUES LOWER.
...DAYS 2 AND 3...
...SOUTHERN CA COASTAL RANGES/CENTRAL-SOUTHERN SIERRA TO THE
ROCKIES...
THE SYSTEM WHICH BEGINS TO BRING SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CENTRAL SIERRA WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH LATE THU INTO
FRI...CLOSING OFF A DEEP CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO SPIN SOUTH TO
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL BRING SNOWS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE SIERRA. SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG
THE WASATCH AND DEVELOP ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM OF NORTHERN AZ AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE SAN JUANS WHERE A MODERATE RISK AND EVEN A
SMALL HIGH RISK FOR A FOOT OR MORE IS INDICATED IN THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK. AN UPPER JET COUPLET...LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO ALL CONTRIBUTE TO THE HEAVY
SNOW THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.
MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE EAST...A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST
TO UNDERCUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER THAN A QUARTER-INCH STILL APPEAR
UNLIKELY...THERE IS STILL ENSEMBLE AND NOW SOME OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME IN WHICH TO WARRANT SPOTTY AREAS OF ICING
CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EASTWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX INTO EASTERN KS.
WPC PROBABILITIES GAVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH MOVED TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW.
BANN
06Z GFS 500mb Chart: 00Z Euro Charts:
Currently surface observations suggest the Arctic boundary is moving faster than previously though and is running a good 12-18 hours faster than was expected. As is usually the case with a very dense and cold air mass, this is not too surprising that the computer model would under estimate the speed. First things first…showers are moving N to NE from the Gulf and that should continue today and increase in coverage across the Region and we should begin to see some storms develop to our NW across Oklahoma and N Texas later tonight. A line of showers and storms will sweep S during the overnight hours tonight ushering in the arrival of the coldest air of the season on Friday.
Wintry Weather Advisories have been issued across Oklahoma and will likely be needed later today across the Panhandle and further S into the Permian Basin and the Big Country near Midland/Odessa. There is a chance that Winter Weather Advisories or even a Winter Storm Watch will be hoisted for the Dallas/Ft Worth area as freezing temps at the surface and over running precip begins to fall leading to an ice threat mainly on elevated surfaces by Friday afternoon into the evening hours.
We may see a brief break from the over running precip as the much talked about upper air cold core close low develops in Southern California. This feature is expected to deepen rather rapidly and there are some strong indications that this low will be near the 3 standard deviation below normal for late November standards making it a strong storm system that we usually do not see this time of year. Abundant tropical moisture from the Pacific will wrap up this storm system and indications are that it will be a bit further E over Arizona bringing flooding rains to the Phoenix area and heavy higher elevation snow to Eastern AZ into New Mexico.
This storm system appears to stay rather strong and remain a closed low as it cross New Mexico on Saturday and moves E into Texas on Sunday. The current projected storm track appears to be just S of Lubbock to near Austin and then very close to SE Texas during the morning hours of Monday. The latest run of the 06Z GFS brings this upper air feature very close to Bryan/College Station and Montgomery County, so it will be worth monitoring. There still remains relative good agreement that a Coastal Low will develop along the Middle Texas Coast on Sunday and slide NE toward Lake Charles on Monday into Tuesday. Currently the latest HPC/WPC Day 3 Outlook does suggest an icing potential for portions of Central and E Texas. Temperature profiles at the surface continue to drop with each run of the computer models, but warmer air above the shallow dense cold air at the surface do not support snow. What we may see is a chance of sleet as the cold air layer deepens a bit to about 3000 ft. Areas near Dallas may see heavy sleet thus warranting a Winter Storm Watch. Temps across SE Texas are expected to drop into the mid 30’s or very close to freezing Sunday night into Monday morning. Regardless, it is going to feel very cold with brisk N to NE winds and very chilly rain at the least. Stay Tuned.
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 AM EST THU NOV 21 2013
VALID 12Z THU NOV 21 2013 - 12Z SUN NOV 24 2013
...DAY 1 ...
...NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH FORCES THE BEST BAROCLINICITY
SOUTH. STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE AFFORDED BY RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION
DYNAMICS ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SNOWS ACROSS THE FAVORED
TERRAIN OF WESTERN WY WHICH THEN SAGS SOUTH AND EAST. LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WHERE THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO SUPPORT
SNOW...BUT ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPS OVER PARTS OF KS/OK LATE
IN THE PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.
...CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE GREAT BASIN...
AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION OUT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROF
WILL BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SIERRA INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL NV AS THE TROF MOVES INLAND. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD BE INITIALLY PRETTY HIGH BUT DECREASE AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESS
VALUES LOWER.
...DAYS 2 AND 3...
...SOUTHERN CA COASTAL RANGES/CENTRAL-SOUTHERN SIERRA TO THE
ROCKIES...
THE SYSTEM WHICH BEGINS TO BRING SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CENTRAL SIERRA WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH LATE THU INTO
FRI...CLOSING OFF A DEEP CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO SPIN SOUTH TO
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL BRING SNOWS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE SIERRA. SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG
THE WASATCH AND DEVELOP ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM OF NORTHERN AZ AS
WELL. THE HEAVIEST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE SAN JUANS WHERE A MODERATE RISK AND EVEN A
SMALL HIGH RISK FOR A FOOT OR MORE IS INDICATED IN THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK. AN UPPER JET COUPLET...LOW-MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO ALL CONTRIBUTE TO THE HEAVY
SNOW THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.
MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE EAST...A SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST
TO UNDERCUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER THAN A QUARTER-INCH STILL APPEAR
UNLIKELY...THERE IS STILL ENSEMBLE AND NOW SOME OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF ENOUGH PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING AT THIS TIME IN WHICH TO WARRANT SPOTTY AREAS OF ICING
CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EASTWARD INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX INTO EASTERN KS.
WPC PROBABILITIES GAVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DISCOUNTING THE NAM WHICH MOVED TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW.
BANN
06Z GFS 500mb Chart: 00Z Euro Charts:
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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Portastorm
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- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
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As is always the case in these situations, I think it's important to pay attention to the trends of the forecast. For example, for my area of south central Texas, forecasts over the last 24-36 hours have shown a downward trending of temperatures and increasing mention of the possibility of mixed wintry precip with rain. As they say, "the TREND is your friend."
Something else we're seeing in the modeling is that the models are trending towards a solution of a deeper (strength-wise) and deeper (latitude wise) cold core upper low this weekend. A further south track in the state means more areas may be subject to wintry weather before the weekend ends.
As srainhoutx said so well, with very cold but shallow airmasses like these, they are not quick to leave and they often move much faster than what the models suggest.
Something else we're seeing in the modeling is that the models are trending towards a solution of a deeper (strength-wise) and deeper (latitude wise) cold core upper low this weekend. A further south track in the state means more areas may be subject to wintry weather before the weekend ends.
As srainhoutx said so well, with very cold but shallow airmasses like these, they are not quick to leave and they often move much faster than what the models suggest.
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srainhoutx
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Morning Update from Jeff:
Major changes coming in the next 24 hours as a powerful cold front sweeps across the state.
Today-early Friday:
Warm and moist onshore flow off the Gulf will provide an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms today-Friday. Temperatures will be in the humid 70’s for most of the entire period. Waves of showers will move inland off the Gulf of Mexico and northward across the area as moisture deepens ahead of a strong cold front on Friday. This will be the last warm day for a while!
Starting to push dewpoints over the near shore water temperatures so expect areas of dense sea fog to begin to form today and especially tonight as onshore winds weaken and persist until the front crosses the area on Friday.
Friday-Saturday:
Powerful polar cold front roars across the state bringing much colder weather. Dense shallow air mass should arrive across our NW counties near sunrise Friday and be off the coast by early afternoon. High temperatures will occur prior to the frontal passage in the upper 70’s and then plummet into the 40’s and 50’s behind the front. SE winds of 10mph will shift to the north and increase to 20-30mph behind the front. Strong frontal lifting and a moist air mass will support widespread shower and thunderstorm development along the boundary. Shallow nature of the dense cold air will result in continued warm Gulf air mass being lifted up and over the frontal surface across the entire into Saturday with widespread periods of light to moderate rainfall continuing into Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday will hold nearly steady in the low to mid 40’s with gusty N winds. Rainfall amounts Friday-Saturday will average .5 to 1.5 inches.
Saturday night-Sunday night:
Winter Storm heads for TX
Strong upper level storm system over the SW US begins to move eastward toward TX with a firm cold air mass in place. Expect dry but cloudy conditions across SE TX most of Sunday as the cold dome deepens. Strong upper level system approaching from the west will result in the forcing of surface low pressure off the lower TX coast which will begin to swing moisture back over the surface cold dome. Expect to see increasing light rainfall by Sunday evening west and north of SE TX. Highs Sunday will hold in the 40’s.
While forecast soundings show a warm nose, it appears that enough dry air in the mid to surface layer may result in enough cooling to onset precipitation as sleet from near Fort Worth along and west of I-35 to NW of San Antonio. Surface temperatures in this region will be just above freezing, but could drop to freezing allowing some accumulation of sleet/ice Sunday night into Monday morning west of I-35. This area is being monitored for the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch.
Locally, looking at forecast soundings at both CLL and UTS for Monday morning suggest dewpoints in the upper 20’s at the surface and surface temperatures in the mid 30’s. This would suggest a brief window for some evaporative cooling from College Station to Lufkin at the onset of light rain Sunday night. Such setups in the past have resulted in P-type of sleet or rain/sleet mix at the onset of the precipitation and this is a possibility. With surface temperatures expected to be above freezing and the ground still very warm do not expect any accumulation over our area.
Monday-Tuesday:
Winter storm pushes across TX with accumulating ice/sleet possible over W/NW/N TX and portions of the Hill Country. Southward surface low will move NE along the TX coast resulting in widespread cold rain and windy conditions. Expect rain to develop from SW to NE early Monday as warm Gulf air is lifted over the cold air locked in at the surface. Surface winds will increase out of the ENE on Monday and tide levels will begin to rise along the coast as winds increase. Surface low should progress across our coastal waters early Tuesday resulting in peak winds late Monday night and greatest rainfall potential Monday afternoon and evening. Highs Monday will again be locked in the 40’s. Surface low moving east of the area on Tuesday will likely end rain chances and shift winds around to the NW keeping the cold air in place. Highs Tuesday may stay in the 40’s also…but could reach the lower 50’s depending on if any sun breaks through late in the day.
Thanksgiving Outlook:
TX should lie between storm systems, but cold air will remain in place across the state. Lows in the 30’s on Thursday with highs in the 50’s under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. GFS continues to show a shallow moist layer trapped in the frontal inversion both Wednesday and Thursday which may keep low clouds locked in place and highs colder than the 50’s. Looks like the cold finally begins to modify in about a week or the Friday after Thanksgiving.
Major changes coming in the next 24 hours as a powerful cold front sweeps across the state.
Today-early Friday:
Warm and moist onshore flow off the Gulf will provide an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms today-Friday. Temperatures will be in the humid 70’s for most of the entire period. Waves of showers will move inland off the Gulf of Mexico and northward across the area as moisture deepens ahead of a strong cold front on Friday. This will be the last warm day for a while!
Starting to push dewpoints over the near shore water temperatures so expect areas of dense sea fog to begin to form today and especially tonight as onshore winds weaken and persist until the front crosses the area on Friday.
Friday-Saturday:
Powerful polar cold front roars across the state bringing much colder weather. Dense shallow air mass should arrive across our NW counties near sunrise Friday and be off the coast by early afternoon. High temperatures will occur prior to the frontal passage in the upper 70’s and then plummet into the 40’s and 50’s behind the front. SE winds of 10mph will shift to the north and increase to 20-30mph behind the front. Strong frontal lifting and a moist air mass will support widespread shower and thunderstorm development along the boundary. Shallow nature of the dense cold air will result in continued warm Gulf air mass being lifted up and over the frontal surface across the entire into Saturday with widespread periods of light to moderate rainfall continuing into Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday will hold nearly steady in the low to mid 40’s with gusty N winds. Rainfall amounts Friday-Saturday will average .5 to 1.5 inches.
Saturday night-Sunday night:
Winter Storm heads for TX
Strong upper level storm system over the SW US begins to move eastward toward TX with a firm cold air mass in place. Expect dry but cloudy conditions across SE TX most of Sunday as the cold dome deepens. Strong upper level system approaching from the west will result in the forcing of surface low pressure off the lower TX coast which will begin to swing moisture back over the surface cold dome. Expect to see increasing light rainfall by Sunday evening west and north of SE TX. Highs Sunday will hold in the 40’s.
While forecast soundings show a warm nose, it appears that enough dry air in the mid to surface layer may result in enough cooling to onset precipitation as sleet from near Fort Worth along and west of I-35 to NW of San Antonio. Surface temperatures in this region will be just above freezing, but could drop to freezing allowing some accumulation of sleet/ice Sunday night into Monday morning west of I-35. This area is being monitored for the issuance of a Winter Storm Watch.
Locally, looking at forecast soundings at both CLL and UTS for Monday morning suggest dewpoints in the upper 20’s at the surface and surface temperatures in the mid 30’s. This would suggest a brief window for some evaporative cooling from College Station to Lufkin at the onset of light rain Sunday night. Such setups in the past have resulted in P-type of sleet or rain/sleet mix at the onset of the precipitation and this is a possibility. With surface temperatures expected to be above freezing and the ground still very warm do not expect any accumulation over our area.
Monday-Tuesday:
Winter storm pushes across TX with accumulating ice/sleet possible over W/NW/N TX and portions of the Hill Country. Southward surface low will move NE along the TX coast resulting in widespread cold rain and windy conditions. Expect rain to develop from SW to NE early Monday as warm Gulf air is lifted over the cold air locked in at the surface. Surface winds will increase out of the ENE on Monday and tide levels will begin to rise along the coast as winds increase. Surface low should progress across our coastal waters early Tuesday resulting in peak winds late Monday night and greatest rainfall potential Monday afternoon and evening. Highs Monday will again be locked in the 40’s. Surface low moving east of the area on Tuesday will likely end rain chances and shift winds around to the NW keeping the cold air in place. Highs Tuesday may stay in the 40’s also…but could reach the lower 50’s depending on if any sun breaks through late in the day.
Thanksgiving Outlook:
TX should lie between storm systems, but cold air will remain in place across the state. Lows in the 30’s on Thursday with highs in the 50’s under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. GFS continues to show a shallow moist layer trapped in the frontal inversion both Wednesday and Thursday which may keep low clouds locked in place and highs colder than the 50’s. Looks like the cold finally begins to modify in about a week or the Friday after Thanksgiving.
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wxman57
- Global Moderator
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I see a striking similarity in the pattern this weekend to the Thanksgiving 1993 Arctic outbreak. 500mb flow nearly identical. That was the time of what we refer to in the office as the "Leon Lett Bowl", the Dallas Cowboy's game with the fumble as they played in freezing rain/sleet/snow:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUYVifM0vCQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUYVifM0vCQ
Looks like we could see our first freeze by Thanksgiving.wxman57 wrote:Don't see any snow/ice chances way down here, but the latest GFS does indicate that I need to move a lot farther south next week:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12znov20.gif
Ptarmigan wrote:Looks like we could see our first freeze by Thanksgiving.wxman57 wrote:Don't see any snow/ice chances way down here, but the latest GFS does indicate that I need to move a lot farther south next week:
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12znov20.gif
BRING ON THE COLD...and whatever else it brings
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1031 AM EST THU NOV 21 2013
VALID 12Z SUN NOV 24 2013 - 12Z THU NOV 28 2013
...LOW CROSSING THE SOUTH AND TURNING UP THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK
A CONCERN FOR TRAVEL..
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HANGING BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SPREAD DOWNSTREAM REMAINS ENORMOUS. WHEN
THAT WAVE FINALLY EJECTS, ITS NORTHERN EXTENT WILL BE SUBJECT TO
THE PHASE OF THE PROGRESSION OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS SAILING ASTRIDE
THE CANADIAN BORDER. RELIED ON THE 06Z/21 GEFS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC
BACKGROUND FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES THIS PACKAGE. THIS
PARTICULAR ENSEMBLE MEAN KEPT MORE BAGGINESS IN THE ISOBARIC
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY--A
REFLECTION OF A CLUSTER OF ITS INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS THAT INDICATED A
SLOWER EJECTION. SLOWER IS USUALLY BETTER WITH REGARD TO THE
PROGRESS OF SUCH SOUTHWEST HANGBACK TROUGHS, SO WANTED TO HEDGE
BETS IN THAT DIRECTION. PERUSAL OF THE 20 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
COMPRISING THE 06Z/21 GEFS MEAN SHOWED DRAMATIC VARIATION--SOME
DRY, COLD SOLUTIONS FOR THE EAST COAST--SOME SNOWY ONES FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC--SOME RAINY, WINDY ONES ALL
THE WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION TYPE ASIDE, THE WAVE WILL
STILL AFFECT MAJOR AIRPORTS FROM DALLAS TO ATLANTA, AND PROBABLY
THE BIG HUBS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE ALWAYS-BUSY TRAVEL
DAYS BEFORE THANKSGIVING.
THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE TWO EARLY SEASON ARCTIC OUTBREAKS FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FIRST SHOULD DELIVER A FRIGID
BLAST TO MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY. THE
SECOND IS SLATED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE SAME AREAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE SOUTHERN WAVE ON THANKSGIVING DAY. CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT
BASIN, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD BE IN A NO-MAN'S-LAND
REGION BETWEEN THE SPLIT STREAMS.
CISCO
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1031 AM EST THU NOV 21 2013
VALID 12Z SUN NOV 24 2013 - 12Z THU NOV 28 2013
...LOW CROSSING THE SOUTH AND TURNING UP THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEK
A CONCERN FOR TRAVEL..
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL HANGING BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION SPREAD DOWNSTREAM REMAINS ENORMOUS. WHEN
THAT WAVE FINALLY EJECTS, ITS NORTHERN EXTENT WILL BE SUBJECT TO
THE PHASE OF THE PROGRESSION OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS SAILING ASTRIDE
THE CANADIAN BORDER. RELIED ON THE 06Z/21 GEFS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC
BACKGROUND FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES THIS PACKAGE. THIS
PARTICULAR ENSEMBLE MEAN KEPT MORE BAGGINESS IN THE ISOBARIC
PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY--A
REFLECTION OF A CLUSTER OF ITS INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS THAT INDICATED A
SLOWER EJECTION. SLOWER IS USUALLY BETTER WITH REGARD TO THE
PROGRESS OF SUCH SOUTHWEST HANGBACK TROUGHS, SO WANTED TO HEDGE
BETS IN THAT DIRECTION. PERUSAL OF THE 20 ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
COMPRISING THE 06Z/21 GEFS MEAN SHOWED DRAMATIC VARIATION--SOME
DRY, COLD SOLUTIONS FOR THE EAST COAST--SOME SNOWY ONES FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC--SOME RAINY, WINDY ONES ALL
THE WAY INTO NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION TYPE ASIDE, THE WAVE WILL
STILL AFFECT MAJOR AIRPORTS FROM DALLAS TO ATLANTA, AND PROBABLY
THE BIG HUBS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE ALWAYS-BUSY TRAVEL
DAYS BEFORE THANKSGIVING.
THE OTHER STORY WILL BE THE TWO EARLY SEASON ARCTIC OUTBREAKS FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FIRST SHOULD DELIVER A FRIGID
BLAST TO MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY. THE
SECOND IS SLATED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE SAME AREAS IN THE WAKE OF
THE SOUTHERN WAVE ON THANKSGIVING DAY. CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT
BASIN, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD BE IN A NO-MAN'S-LAND
REGION BETWEEN THE SPLIT STREAMS.
CISCO
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
-
wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
Made a comparison graphic with the current GFS 500mb prog valid 00Z Nov. 25, 2013 at the top and a 72hr 500mb forecast valid for the same date in 1993 that I saved that Thanksgiving Day. Note what I wrote on top of it back then.
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
I love cold and we need the rain, but the tailgating and game in Baton Rouge is going to be nasty.
Baylor and Okie Lite may need skates for their game in Stillwater.
Baylor and Okie Lite may need skates for their game in Stillwater.
Team #NeverSummer
WXMan57 - Where do you find these graphs at? I want to see what Beaumont looks like if it is available.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
I make them using data from this website (http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READYcmet.php) and an Excel spreadsheet. I have a link to a tutorial I made over at Storm2K. It has links to my spreadsheet:djmike wrote:WXMan57 - Where do you find these graphs at? I want to see what Beaumont looks like if it is available.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 2&t=109958
Here's one for Beaumont:
Ah! Thank you!!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
I added a "sticky" here in the Weather Forum with the instructions and links to files for making custom meteograms:
http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1897
http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1897
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Andrew
- Site Admin
- Posts: 3440
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
- Location: North-West Houston
- Contact:
Some of these storms had a little bit to them farther north:
TORNADO WARNING
TXC293-212000-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0034.131121T1925Z-131121T2000Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
125 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 200 PM CST
* AT 125 PM CST...TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMNT OBSERVED
A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GROESBECK...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GROESBECK AROUND 135 PM CST...
FORT PARKER STATE PARK AROUND 145 PM CST...
TORNADO WARNING
TXC293-212000-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0034.131121T1925Z-131121T2000Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
125 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 200 PM CST
* AT 125 PM CST...TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS AND LAW ENFORCEMNT OBSERVED
A TORNADO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GROESBECK...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GROESBECK AROUND 135 PM CST...
FORT PARKER STATE PARK AROUND 145 PM CST...
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
NWS San Angelo issues Winter Storm Watch and NWS Midland/Odessa issues a Winter Weather Advisory.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>145-156>159-221000-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-
MCLENNAN-
330 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013
...WINTER STORM OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A
LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING. SLEET MAY BE
HEAVY AND ACCUMULATE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PARIS...TO DALLAS
TO LAMPASAS WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE EVEN
FARTHER NORTHWEST...OR NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE...TO
WEATHERFORD... TO COMANCHE WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EVEN COLDER.
THE CHANCE OF SLEET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING
AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. IF TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED A SIGNIFICANT ICE
STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE DFW
METROPLEX. CURRENTLY...THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.
THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS STILL EVOLVING...AND AS MORE WEATHER
DATA IS ANALYZED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE FORECAST MAY
CHANGE. AT THIS TIME RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.
$$
HAMPSHIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-129>134-141>145-156>159-221000-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-
COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-
MCLENNAN-
330 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013
...WINTER STORM OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE
REGION. AT THE SAME TIME A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND PROVIDE FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY.
A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. A
LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SLEET IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING. SLEET MAY BE
HEAVY AND ACCUMULATE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PARIS...TO DALLAS
TO LAMPASAS WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO NEAR FREEZING.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE EVEN
FARTHER NORTHWEST...OR NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE...TO
WEATHERFORD... TO COMANCHE WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EVEN COLDER.
THE CHANCE OF SLEET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING
AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. IF TEMPERATURES ARE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COLDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED A SIGNIFICANT ICE
STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INCLUDING THE DFW
METROPLEX. CURRENTLY...THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.
THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS STILL EVOLVING...AND AS MORE WEATHER
DATA IS ANALYZED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE FORECAST MAY
CHANGE. AT THIS TIME RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS.
$$
HAMPSHIRE
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
NWS Lubbock issues Winter Storm Watch.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity