NOVEMBER: Warming Up To End The Month

[djmike]

Well that was big rain dissapointment. Now just waiting for the cold air to arrive. Atleast that is more promising.

[snowman65]

Came down good here in Bridge City for about 10 minutes....gone already.

[srainhoutx]

Morning update from Jeff:

Cold front has progressed well offshore overnight with cool high pressure building into the region. Today will be a good 10-15 degrees colder than yesterday along with gusty NW winds.

Surface high will be near/overhead tonight and with expected mostly clear skies and light winds, temperatures will likely fall to the lowest levels since last April in the low to mid 40’s with possibly a few 30’s up north and northwest. Surface high will shift eastward over the weekend allowing a returning of onshore winds, but moisture return will be fairly slow. Upper level short wave in the increasingly SW flow aloft could generate mostly cloudy conditions by late Saturday, but think the area will remain dry with fairly limited moisture below the mid level cloud bases.

Moisture continues to increase next week ahead of what could be a fairly potent cold front. GFS is suggesting a fairly strong high pressure cell on the order of 1040-1045mb dropping down the plains with origins in the Arctic. It is a little early for big arctic outbreaks and the ECMWF models is not nearly as strong as the GFS with the cold air, so for now the uncertainty for the middle of next week is high.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS continues to advertise a sharp and shallow Arctic air mass sliding S into the Plains from Canada next week.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro holds steady if not even stronger than the previous two cycles and suggests an 1045mb+ Arctic High Pressure settling into the Plains driving a sharp and shallow Arctic front all the way to Coastal Texas and Louisiana next week.

[kayci]

I think it's time for me to find a nice warm sunny beach for me to hibernate on till the spring...

[srainhoutx]

Our latest fall chill will transition to a chance of light showers over the weekend as a couple of short waves pass overhead in the zonal flow aloft. The Euro and GFS are in better agreement that a strong front will pass on Tuesday, but most of the energy associated with it will be off to our east. While it does appear there is a chance we may see our first frost/freeze for our Northern areas, it isn't all that early as we typically get that first frost or freeze in those areas near the middle of November. What may become a bigger weather maker could be lurking the following weekend (November 15-17) as a much stronger front and attending storm complex may develop offering a severe weather chance or even heavy rainfall. That remains to be seen as it is way too out to know with any certainty just how the pattern will develop.

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram off the 12Z GFS. Down to 34 next Wed/Thu with highs in the 53-55 range:

[srainhoutx]

HGX disco left a tease for Paul Robison for the following weekend...

We will keep it a secret since that tease may involve a full latitude trough...

[Paul Robison]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 091148
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
548 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2013

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT WEATHER ON TAP THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY BENEATH/CLOSER TO UPPER JET AXIS
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MAY JUST BE A LOT OF SPRINKLES.
LL DRY AIR INTRUDING FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DIPS DOWN INTO LA AND MAY EVEN BACK DOOR INTO
THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BACK UP
BRIEFLY. ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE PLUNGING SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS MONDAY AND SHOULD DRIVE INTO TX TUESDAY MORNING AND SETX
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE WITH IT BEING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
THAT IT COULD GET HERE 6 HOURS EARLIER WHICH WOULD PLAY HAVOC WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SETX. CURRENT PACKAGE IS BASED
ON THE AFTERNOON PASSAGE. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WITH EXTREMELY LIMITED INSTABILITY
EXPECTING MAINLY JUST SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN. VERY COLD DRY
AIR WILL POUR INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. WE SHOULD SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A COLLEGE STATION TO
CONROE TO CLEVELAND LINE AND TEMPERATURES OF 29-31 WILL BE MUCH
MORE LIKELY FOR THE HUNTSVILLE AREAS NORTHEASTWARD AS RIDGE AXIS
STALLS OVER THE REGION. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE SPREADS LOOK TO BE
NARROWING AND LOWERING. CONFIDENCE ON THIS UPCOMING FREEZE HAVE
GROWN...STILL TO EARLY FOR A FREEZE WARNING TO BE ISSUED BUT
WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA TO BE READY FOR IT.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND MOISTURE RETURNS ON FRIDAY AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TREND IN THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE
SHIFTED THE STORM SYSTEM FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND MONDAY FARTHER NORTH
TAKING SETX OUT OF THE BULLSEYE FOR SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT...BUT
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA STILL CONCERNED THAT THE PATTERN HAS HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR A MAJOR WEATHER EVENT FOR SETX. STAY TUNED.


I'm confused, folks. If the model runs say we're not in danger, why is this guy still worried? Help me out, please!

[skidog40]

snow

[srainhoutx]

Two more days of pleasant weather before the bottom falls out temp wise across our Region on Tuesday. The much anticipated Arctic Cold Front is diving S from Canada this morning and will arrive early Tuesday across Oklahoma/N Texas and be off the Texas Coast by Tuesday afternoon. You will need a coat on Tuesday as temps fall rapidly into the 40's and settle into the 30''s by Tuesday evening with strong and blustery N winds that will actually have a wind chill in the upper 20's to low 30's Tuesday night. Frost and Freeze warnings are likely along and N of the I-10 Corridor and may extended into Wednesday night as well.

A very progressive pattern will develop as a Coastal Low/trough takes shape next weekend bringing a rain and elevated storm chance before another reinforcing shot of cold Canadian air plunges S next Sunday into Monday (a week from tomorrow).

The long range outlook is suggesting a cross Polar flow straight from Siberia may well become established as a deep full latitude trough remains anchored across Western and Central North America with disturbance riding S in the N to NW flow and continued chances for Eastern Pacific moisture and Coastal Low/Trough development along the Texas Coast before yet another Arctic Cold Front arrives.

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Model guidance continues to be in good agreement on a strong cold front reaching the area on Tuesday.

Large cold high pressure cell has dislodged out of NW Canada and is starting is southward progress into the US this afternoon. Arctic boundary has crossed the US border and will arrive into TX early Tuesday and push off the TX coast Tuesday evening. Howling NW winds and falling temperatures can be expected with the frontal passage on Tuesday. ENE to NE surface flow will keep moisture limited ahead of this boundary so not expecting much of any rainfall. Temperatures will fall from the 60/70 on Tuesday into the upper 40’s north of I-10 by sunset.  

Main forecast focus will surround low temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Should continue to see winds in the 10-15mph range into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and this will not be conducive to sub-freezing temps. across the region. Freeze line will at least approach our northern counties early Wednesday, but not expecting a widespread freeze on Wednesday AM. Highs on Wednesday may struggle to reach the lower to mid 50’s which is well below normal for mid-November. Better shot at more widespread freezing temperatures appears possible Thursday morning as winds go calm, but models are also hinting at high level moisture in the form of cirrus clouds possibly blanketing the area leading to temperatures remaining above freezing. Pretty much a toss up at this range as to if locations freeze Thursday AM or not, the potential is certainly there.

Cold polar high shifts eastward late Thursday and models roar moisture back into the region. Given the expectation of this front to clear the entire Gulf, models may be over-estimating current moisture return for Thursday and Friday. However, the moisture eventually comes back by Friday and into the weekend with next weekend looking wet with SW flow aloft and numerous disturbances passing across the area.

Long range models hinting at another strong polar surge around the 18/19 of the month.

[Paul Robison]

Update from Jeff:

Model guidance continues to be in good agreement on a strong cold front reaching the area on Tuesday.

Large cold high pressure cell has dislodged out of NW Canada and is starting is southward progress into the US this afternoon. Arctic boundary has crossed the US border and will arrive into TX early Tuesday and push off the TX coast Tuesday evening. Howling NW winds and falling temperatures can be expected with the frontal passage on Tuesday. ENE to NE surface flow will keep moisture limited ahead of this boundary so not expecting much of any rainfall. Temperatures will fall from the 60/70 on Tuesday into the upper 40’s north of I-10 by sunset.

Main forecast focus will surround low temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Should continue to see winds in the 10-15mph range into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and this will not be conducive to sub-freezing temps. across the region. Freeze line will at least approach our northern counties early Wednesday, but not expecting a widespread freeze on Wednesday AM. Highs on Wednesday may struggle to reach the lower to mid 50’s which is well below normal for mid-November. Better shot at more widespread freezing temperatures appears possible Thursday morning as winds go calm, but models are also hinting at high level moisture in the form of cirrus clouds possibly blanketing the area leading to temperatures remaining above freezing. Pretty much a toss up at this range as to if locations freeze Thursday AM or not, the potential is certainly there.

Cold polar high shifts eastward late Thursday and models roar moisture back into the region. Given the expectation of this front to clear the entire Gulf, models may be over-estimating current moisture return for Thursday and Friday. However, the moisture eventually comes back by Friday and into the weekend with next weekend looking wet with SW flow aloft and numerous disturbances passing across the area.

Long range models hinting at another strong polar surge around the 18/19 of the month.

What are your feelings about the possibilty of severe thunderstorms on Friday/Saturday, Jeff?" And what about ice storms around the 18/19th of the month?

[snowman65]

Any PROS out there wanna reach way out to Thanksgiving week possibilities for Middle Tennessee? That's where I'll be....thx!

[Katdaddy]

Ready for Spring already.

Strong cold front ahead of schedule and to arrive just after lunch. Windy with temps in the 50s by rush hour. Freeze Watch for counties just N of W Houston metro and Wind Advisories for W SE TX and coastal counties.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
508 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2013

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR EXTREME
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THEY ARE FORECAST TO TAPER OFF PRIOR TO SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MAY ALLOW READINGS TO BRIEFLY FALL TO THE
FREEZING MARK. OTHER THAN SUSCEPTIBLE VEGETATION...IMPACT SHOULD
BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE SHORT NATURE...GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 HOURS.
BUT THIS COULD BE THE FIRST FORECAST FREEZE OF THE SEASON...HENCE
THE WATCH. BETTER CHANCES OF A LONGER DURATION FREEZE ARE
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING.

* EVENT...WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH

* TIMING...STARTING THIS MORNING IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THEN
TRANSITIONING TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

[unome]

brrrrrrrrrrr

http://hint.fm/wind/

[ticka1]

No I want to enjoy Fall and Winter - no Spring.....not until next year! Bring on the cold and snow for us winter lovers. Summer was too hot and too long this past year.

I am looking foward to the artic blast and upcoming model runs support another artic blast in 7-10 days that makes me happy happy happy!!!!

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

Freeze Watch issued along and north of a line from Brenham to Conroe to Liberty for Wednesday morning.

Modified arctic boundary plowing through TX this morning. Front will reach our northern counties in the next 1-2 hours and push off the coast by early to mid afternoon. Strong N winds will develop behind the front with gust to 35-40mph especially west of I-45 and along the coast. Fairly significant marine impacts are expected (see below). Temperatures will tumble with the frontal passage with temperatures ahead of the front in the 60’s and falling into the 50’s behind the boundary and then falling into the 40’s by sunset.

Freeze Watch:

Winds will remain gusty overnight, but strong cold air advection may result in an advective freeze into the northern ¼ of the region. Still not overly confident that freezing temperatures will occur, but do expect a few locations within the watch area to fall the freezing. Given this is the first freeze threat of the winter season, sensitive vegetation will need some protection. Could see colder conditions on Thursday morning, but potential for clouds to spill into the area and block cooling is there.

Marine Impacts:

Powerful high pressure cell will push into TX today resulting in strong offshore flow. Gale watch is in effect for the Gulf waters with winds expected to rapidly increase this afternoon into the 35-45mph range as the cold air hits the warm water. Small craft should be aware of the potential for rapidly increasing winds and seas this afternoon. Strong N winds will also drive water levels out of the inland bays and expect tides to run 1-2 feet below normal which could promote vessel groundings.

Outlook:

Polar high quickly shifts eastward by Thursday afternoon and models remain consistent in bringing moisture quickly back into the area by Thursday night. Upper flow becomes increasingly SW aloft with a series of upper level disturbances moving across the state from Friday-weekend. Will see rain chances through this entire period with, but it will be as these disturbances move across when the greatest chances will occur.

[srainhoutx]

The long awaited Arctic cold front is nearing SE Texas at this hour. You'll notice the very strong gusty N/NW winds to near 40 mph as the front passes and temps quickly fall into the 50's. Also a stratus deck of clouds will make it 'feel' even colder.

There are growing indications that a stronger Arctic Front will arrive around the 18th/19th bringing much colder temps to our Region as this air mass looks to head more S than E. Also it is noteworthy that this front may bring moisture with it as a noisy sub tropical jet becomes involved and embedded upper disturbances ride the trough S and impulses move from the SW/W to E across Texas. We may see our first significant Winter Storm with that next Arctic front with wintery mischief in the cold sector and strong to severe storms in the warm sector as that front approaches. A lot can change, and that is a low confidence forecast for this far out, but it is worth monitoring for the cold weather lovers out there. The 'wide view' water vapor imagery clearly does show the full latitude trough advancing E across the Pacific with a strong 500mb upper low at the base of that trough.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1049 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2013

VALID 12Z FRI NOV 15 2013 - 12Z TUE NOV 19 2013

...PATTERN OVERVIEW...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...SENSIBLE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DISTINCT NRN AND
SRN STREAM FLOWS TRANSPORTING AMPLE HEIGHT FALLS/TROUGH ENERGY
ALOFT AND COLD AIR INTO WRN NOAM THIS WEEKEND IN AN AMPLIFYING
PATTERN. FORECAST CONFIDENCES WANE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THESE
PIECES OF ENERGY AND SURFACE REFLECTIONS AS EMPHASIS AND PHASING
POTENTIAL BECOMES INCREASINGLY VARIED WITH MAIN MID-UPPER LEVEL
MEAN TROUGH PROGRESSION OUT TO THE EAST-CENTRAL US. THIS INCLUDES
THE HANDLING OF SIGNIFICANT CANADIAN COLD AIRMASS SURGES DOWN
THROUGH THE CENTRAL THEN ERN US IN A QUITE WINTERLIKE FLOW PATTERN
FOR MUCH OF THE NATION.

THE WEST WILL COOL AND BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH DIGGING IMPULSES SPREADING QPF INCLUDING SOME LOCALLY
HEAVIER TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOWS WITH APPROACH/PASSAGE. THE
DOWNSTREAM TIMING OF MAIN FRONTAL PUSHES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF ENHANCED POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FETCH AND LEAD FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED AND LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINS...SOME WRAP-BACK NORTH-CENTRAL US SNOWS AS DEEPER MOISTURE
FEEDS EVER INLAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
INTO THE SRN/SERN US ALSO FROM THE ATLANTIC...WILL LIKELY FLUXUATE
OVER THE COMING DAYS UNTIL GUIDANCE SETTLES IN BETTER WITH SUPPORT
SPECIFICS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN RECENTLY PROMOTING A DEEPER COLD
INFULTRATION THAN THE CANADIAN/UKMET AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE GFS. WHILE COLD AIR OFTEN WINS IN THESE TYPES OF
PATTERNS...FORECAST SPREAD DOES OFFER SOME REASON TO QUESTION
ECMWF EMPHASIS. ACCORDINGLY...PREFER A SOLUTION BLENDING THE
QUITE COMPATABLE 06 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00 UTC ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN THAT TRENDS WPC FORECAST SUITE GUIDANCE WELL IN THIS
COLDER DIRECTION...BUT NOT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ECMWF.

SCHICHTEL