NOVEMBER: Warming Up To End The Month

[Paul Robison]

Well, where did this little bit of weather come from?

It's coming from the West. It's a trough that taps into abundant tropical moisture form the EPAC. Heavy rainfall I'm not too concerned about, personally, but we did have some powerful storms with damaging winds over Halloween. I guess the $64,000 question here is: will the same thing happen next week? Deja vu, in other words? Anybody?

[TexasBreeze]

Well, where did this little bit of weather come from?

Yup and it came in with gusty winds and heavy rain at my house!

[Rip76]

Very strange.
It's pouring here.

[Ptarmigan]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 020157
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
857 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE HI-RES MODELS WERE PICKING UP ON TROUGH AXIS AND
DEVELOPING SOME HIGH BASED CONVECTION. UPDATED HOUSTON TAFS TO
INCLUDE VCSH/-TSRA IN TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL 04Z. EXPECT WIND SHIFT AS
CONVECTION PASSES. COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMMEND AS NECESSARY.

39

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
HELP GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LIKED
THE RAP13 COMBINED WITH THE NAM12 FOR THE BEST CHANCES TO BE
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 45 AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDORS. THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END AS THE WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A HOUR OR TWO AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT FRI NOV 1 2013/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.

AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS HAS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REACHING KCLL SHORTLY WITH
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH N TX AND W C TX. COLD FRONT WILL BE
PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIND SHIFT. CIGS SHOULD ALL BE VFR.

KCLL/KUTS/CXO...FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 03-05Z.
KIAH/KHOU/KSGR...FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN 06Z-08Z.
KLBX/KGLS...FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 08-09Z. KLBX MAY BE ONLY
TERMINAL WITH VSBY ISSUES. DEWPOINTS STILL IN LOW/MID 60S SO WITH
CALM WINDS/CLEAR SKIES...COULD GET FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY BEFORE
FRONT. WILL GO WITH 4SM BUT VERY POSSIBLE VSBY COULD GO AS LOW AS
1/2SM. THINK ENOUGH WIND FOR KGLS AND NOT EXPECTING FOG.

ONLY ISSUE TOMORROW FOR ALL TERMINALS WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS. ADDED GUSTS TO 25KTS FOR MOST TERMINALS TOMORROW.

39

&&

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Due to trough coming from the west. I remember something like this happened in August 2004.

[SusieinLP]

Uh where did the rain come from? Lol

Loud thunder just now.

[txflagwaver]

Was flipping channels and saw Fox26 weather radar...ran outside and grabbed the Halloween stuff that had dried off....just in time. I love the way Mother Nature has to show us she is NOT predictable

[Paul Robison]

Question:
Will the dynamics of next week's system be similar to Halloween's, together with the potential for widespread /strong to severe storms?

[srainhoutx]

After a nice couple of days across the Lone Star State that has been influenced by high pressure and cooler temps, that pattern will begin to transition as our surface winds switch back to an onshore flow off the Gulf later today and PW's slowly increase along with cloud cover. EPAC TS Sonia will begin to turn N then NE and head inland across the Baja Peninsula late tonight into Monday as a deep Western trough drops S into California. It does appear showers will begin to develop overnight mainly along the Middle Texas Coast and slowly increase in areal coverage Monday into Tuesday. PW's increase further to near the 2 inch range by Wednesday as a cold front approaches and may allow for additional showers and storms to develop. The best dynamics appear to be further N and W with this front, so the chances for a heavy rainfall event look better for potions of Oklahoma and Kansas. Out West a chilly/snowy pattern does appear to be taking shape with snow falling at the higher elevations across most of the West. Northern New Mexico may see rounds of heavy snowfall in the Angel Fire/Taos ski areas as well as all of Colorado ski areas. The pattern again cools down following the frontal passage late Wednesday night promising a pleasant cool zonal weather pattern for next weekend.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon update from Jeff:

Next large scale storm system to affect TX currently dropping down the US west coast.

Another strong upper level storm system will impact the state early to middle part of this week. Southeast low level flow is already returning low level Gulf moisture to the coastal bend and the western sections of SE TX this afternoon while a stream of mid and high level moisture spills NE from TS Sonia off the west coast of MX south of Baja. Sonia will make landfall along the western Mexican coast over the next 48 hours with her moisture being brought NE across TX ahead of the main upper level storm. At the moment it looks like the main moisture from Sonia will pull across the state prior to the arrival of the main dynamics associated with the upper level storm system.

Moisture return and increasing disturbances in the noisy SW flow aloft will help promote a chance of scattered showers on Monday. High resolution models, most notably the TX TECH model, continues to show a “stream” of showers off the western Gulf inland over the Matagorda Bay region for a decent period of time from late tonight through Monday. Other short term guidance also shows these “streamer” lines off the Gulf, but not as pronounced nor in the same location for an extended time like the TTU model. With Gulf moisture increasing, can not rule out a shower for most areas on Monday into Tuesday. By later on Tuesday, lift from the main storm system will begin to approach the region and expect an increase in shower/thunderstorm development.

Main dynamics and front cross the area on Wednesday and this is when the greatest potential for heavy will be. Models show moisture values pushing 1.8-2.0 inches of PW which is again near maximum levels for this time of year, but not as high as the Halloween Day event. This storm system is a little more progressive and looks like the potential for cell training is less and focused more toward N TX and OK where maximum QPF (rainfall amounts) are currently being forecasted. With that said, another widespread 1-2.5 inches does look possible with this event and with grounds saturated and rivers peaking early in the week, even this amount of rainfall could result in significant run-off and additional watershed responses. Still plenty of time to watch and refine rainfall forecasted amounts and locations, but at the moment this event does not look as high on the rainfall totals as the Halloween storm system.

Hydro:

Flood waves currently passing through are river basins from the rainfall last week.

Colorado: River crested below flood stage at Columbus and will crest below flood stage at Wharton and Bay City

San Bernard: above flood stage at East Bernard and Boling and forecast to rise near Flood Stage at Sweeny by the middle of the week

Navasota: River crested just below major flood levels this weekend and should fall below flood stage by the middle of the week

Brazos: River will begin a secondary rise at Hempstead, Richmond, and Rosharon. All points are forecasted to crested below flood stage, although Rosharon will be very close to flood stage

Note: additional rainfall this week both over our region and north/west of SE TX could impact current river forecast crest levels and recessions.

[jcarr]

I was not aware it was going to be this windy.

Cool and windy, good chili weather.

[Paul Robison]

How do MUCAPE and SHEAR values look for the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday time frame? Anybody have any data they'd like to share with me about that?

[srainhoutx]

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
459 AM EST MON NOV 04 2013


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID NOV 04/1200 UTC THRU NOV 07/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


UPDATE

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE.


DAYS 2 AND 3...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR BEING FUNNELED INTO THE REGION ON A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY DURING DAY 3. THERE WAS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP AND EVOLUTION OF THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH...BUT THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET
AND 21Z SREF MEAN WAS USED TO TRY TO MITIGATE THE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND THE FORECAST QPF SUPPORTS THE
ASSIGNMENT OF A SLIGHT RISK AREA TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY ON DAY 3.

ON DAY 2...A SHORT WAVE CROSSING FROM UT INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PUSH A SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO TX.
INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED VIA DIVERGENCE IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 110 KNOT JET STREAK CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL STREAK
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NORTHERN TX
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...TRANSPORTING PRECIPTABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES (WHICH IS BETWEEN TWO AND THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH VEERING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE COLUMN.

THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A DEVELOPING LINE OF
LOW TOPPED CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHEAST
KS. THERE WAS SOME MODEL SPREAD ON THE PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WITH
RESPECT TO THE QPF AXIS...AND THE FORECAST MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES
THE 00Z ECMWF IN THOSE RESPECTS. A LARGE AREA OF 0.75 TO 1.50
INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED ACROSS NORTHEAST TX...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS. THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE THREE HOUR FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS...SO FOR NOW NO EXCESSIVE AREA WAS ASSIGNED.

SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION SHOULD
KEEP THE FLOW SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE ON DAY 3. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ALIGNED WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SOUTHERN
PART. A 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TX
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL PUMP HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING BETWEEN TWO
AND THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL). AGAIN...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN A VEERING LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT...SUPPORTING LOW TOPPED CONVECTION.

A LARGE AREA OF 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES OF QPF WAS PLACED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST MI INTO SOUTHEAST TX. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE LESS
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE NORTHERN PART...LEADING TO A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
AND MID MS VALLEY. IN THESE AREAS...QPF VALUES SHOULD AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.25 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
EASTERN TX. WHILE THESE VALUES ARE GENERALLY BELOW THE THREE HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS...THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
COULD SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES... LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING. WITH THIS IN MIND...A SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
ASSIGNED FOR THE ABOVEMENTIONED AREA FOR DAY 3.

[Paul Robison]

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 AM CST MON NOV 04 2013

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX...

LAGGING PIECE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY ENCOURAGING SFC PRESSURES TO BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS
DRIVING A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD. VERY MOIST
AIR MASS...BUT WEAKLY BUOYANT WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES...WILL PROVE
CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SUGGEST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG
OF CAPE MAY PROVIDE ADEQUATE BUOYANCY FOR UPDRAFTS TO PENETRATE
LEVELS NECESSARY FOR THE PRODUCTION OF LIGHTNING WITHIN THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL/SOUTH TX.
FARTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT...WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE NOTED
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN
TOO SHALLOW TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR LIGHTNING NORTH OF
I-20.

..DARROW.. 11/04/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0513Z (11:13PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME


Hate to feed the trolls, folks, but IMHO we'll likely have a serious LIGHTNING threat with this front. Take this front seriously, please.

[srainhoutx]

Morning update from Jeff:

Another upper level storm system approaching from the west this morning.

Moisture is increasing across the region mainly from the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Radar shows a defined “streamer” line over the Matagorda Bay region where moisture convergence is greatest. Expect to see scattered showers today as moisture increases off the Gulf of Mexico.

Main storm system and front arrive into the region on Wednesday. Lift and moisture will be maximized along this feature with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected along and ahead of the boundary. PWS peak in the 1.7-1.9 inch range which is high for this time of year, but below the Halloween storm event. Think heavy rainfall is possible, but not prolonged and not to the totals of last week. Main dynamics will be north of our area over N TX where heavier rains look more likely.

Rainfall amounts across SE TX will average 1-2 inches with isolated totals of up to 3 inches possible. See hydro section below.

Cold front will blast off the coast Wednesday evening ushering in a much colder air mass. Lows will fall into the 40’s for the end of the week with highs in the upper 60’s under mostly clear skies. Clouds begin to return by the weekend as we potentially establish an overrunning weather pattern with moist Gulf air gliding up and over the cool dome at the surface. Could see rain chances back as early as Sunday.

Hydro:

Flood Waves are passing through area rivers at this time.

San Bernard River: River is near bankfull at East Bernard and Sweeny and above flood stage at Boling. River will remain high through the end of the week

Brazos River: Flood Wave peak has passed Richmond this morning and will reach Rosharon Wednesday morning. Crests will be below flood stage at both points.

Colorado River: Flood wave has passed Wharton and Bay City and the river is in a rapid fall

Navasota River: Minor flooding continues at Normangee and this will continue through Wednesday

Trinity River: River will be rising downstream of Lake Livingston due to flood gate operations at the lake. Current rises are expected to be below flood stage.

Additional rainfall over SE TX and N TX over the next 48 hours will likely result in additions run-off and potential new rises/flood waves on area rivers.

[Paul Robison]

Morning update from Jeff:

Another upper level storm system approaching from the west this morning.

Moisture is increasing across the region mainly from the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Radar shows a defined “streamer” line over the Matagorda Bay region where moisture convergence is greatest. Expect to see scattered showers today as moisture increases off the Gulf of Mexico.

Main storm system and front arrive into the region on Wednesday. Lift and moisture will be maximized along this feature with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected along and ahead of the boundary. PWS peak in the 1.7-1.9 inch range which is high for this time of year, but below the Halloween storm event. Think heavy rainfall is possible, but not prolonged and not to the totals of last week. Main dynamics will be north of our area over N TX where heavier rains look more likely.

Rainfall amounts across SE TX will average 1-2 inches with isolated totals of up to 3 inches possible. See hydro section below.

Cold front will blast off the coast Wednesday evening ushering in a much colder air mass. Lows will fall into the 40’s for the end of the week with highs in the upper 60’s under mostly clear skies. Clouds begin to return by the weekend as we potentially establish an overrunning weather pattern with moist Gulf air gliding up and over the cool dome at the surface. Could see rain chances back as early as Sunday.

Hydro:

Flood Waves are passing through area rivers at this time.

San Bernard River: River is near bankfull at East Bernard and Sweeny and above flood stage at Boling. River will remain high through the end of the week

Brazos River: Flood Wave peak has passed Richmond this morning and will reach Rosharon Wednesday morning. Crests will be below flood stage at both points.

Colorado River: Flood wave has passed Wharton and Bay City and the river is in a rapid fall

Navasota River: Minor flooding continues at Normangee and this will continue through Wednesday

Trinity River: River will be rising downstream of Lake Livingston due to flood gate operations at the lake. Current rises are expected to be below flood stage.

Additional rainfall over SE TX and N TX over the next 48 hours will likely result in additions run-off and potential new rises/flood waves on area rivers.

Well, our problems may be bigger than that, Srainhoutx. Look:

000
FLUS44 KHGX 052140
HWOHGX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-062145-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
340 PM CST TUE NOV 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS
GENERALLY AVERAGING LESS A QUARTER INCH. SOME LOCATIONS COULD
RECEIVE UP TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS.
HOWEVER NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND HALF AN
INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. SOME FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IN A FEW SPOTS WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...ALTHOUGH FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE MOST LOCATIONS.
IN ADDITION WIND GUSTS 40 MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
OF THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
40mph or greater? Why not try for 60-80? HELP!

[Andrew]

Paul you crack me up. You never fail to amaze me with some of these comments. I assure you 40mph may even be on the high side. Looking at expected soundings for tomorrow around the time of the front shows virtually zero CAPE. As a result it will be hard to get any elevated storms. Looks like a mostly saturated atmosphere too which would eliminate evaporation (again limiting wind chances). I am sure there will be one or two storms ahead of the front that COULD MAYBE create some slightly stronger gusts of wind but I highly doubt it.

[Katdaddy]

Thunderstorms likely today as a strong cold front pushes through SE TX. Some heavy rainfall possible however the progressive nature of the front will keep totals low compared to Halloween. SPC has only a general thunderstorm threat but nothing severe. Skies clearing this evening and then some very nice Fall weather the next several days.

[redneckweather]

Yep, it looks like the front is moving at a pretty good clip so rain totals will be on the low side.

[srainhoutx]

The front has a bit of chill with it as well. Temps are in the upper 40's/low 50's across Central Texas. We may see some temps in the low to mid 40's across SE Texas tomorrow morning and a day or two of pleasant weather before another disturbance moves across the Lone Star State Saturday into Sunday in the zonal flow.

[txflagwaver]

The rain shield was up here today. Beautiful sunny day. Now just waiting for the cold air