OCTOBER: Halloween Storm: Severe Storms/Flash Flood Threat?

[ticka1]

Looks like models are still trying to usher in our first real cold front on the 2013 Fall season - around October 6th. I am looking forward to it!!!!

[srainhoutx]

Typhoon Pabuk remnants screaming across the Pacific Ocean are a sign the westerly's are about to kick in. Usually these Western Pacific storms moving E wreak havoc with the guidance and I suspect this storm will be no different. There are indications that a very deep trough will be carved out across the Western US as the system moves toward the Pacific NW bringing significant low elevation rains and higher elevation snow totals. My hunch is the second week of October may bring that first legitimate shot of colder air to Texas as the jet stream buckles and drops a bit further S than the Canadian border. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

The models are coming into somewhat better agreement that the first significant fall season cold front will clear the Region next weekend. With a stalled boundary washing out early next week and rather strong onshore flow off the Gulf with PW's above 2 inches, heavy rainfall will likely continue into the work week. It appears a very slow moving 5H low will also meander over the Southern Plains suggesting severe weather potential will increase late week and a squall line will accompany that strong front with much cooler temps and dry air for late next weekend.

[sambucol]

The models are coming into somewhat better agreement that the first significant fall season cold front will clear the Region next weekend. With a stalled boundary washing out early next week and rather strong onshore flow off the Gulf with PW's above 2 inches, heavy rainfall will likely continue into the work week. It appears a very slow moving 5H low will also meander over the Southern Plains suggestinng severe weather potential will increase late week and a squall line will accompany that strong front with much cooler temps and dry air for late next weekend.

What kind of much cooler temps can we expect hopefully?

[srainhoutx]

^^
Maybe some night time lows in the 50's with highs in the 70's. Perhaps a bit cooler further N. We will see.

[sambucol]

Thanks! Hoping it happens

[Paul Robison]

The models are coming into somewhat better agreement that the first significant fall season cold front will clear the Region next weekend. With a stalled boundary washing out early next week and rather strong onshore flow off the Gulf with PW's above 2 inches, heavy rainfall will likely continue into the work week. It appears a very slow moving 5H low will also meander over the Southern Plains suggestinng severe weather potential will increase late week and a squall line will accompany that strong front with much cooler temps and dry air for late next weekend.

What kind of much cooler temps can we expect hopefully?

Well, the forecast models are still flipflopping around with the strength and exact timing of the front, but all the models (that I know of) are in agreement that this will be a fast front with much less chances for rain than what we had over the weekend. FWIW, here's a quote from the SPC:

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE
WRN TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THUR/D4...AND INTO
THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY ON FRI/D5. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ON D4 ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS NOT
EXPECTED.

THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE ON
FRI/D5 NEAR THE SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS SRN MN...IA...WI...AND NRN
IL...WITH A LESSER THREAT ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AS FAR SW AS
OKLAHOMA. THE STRONGEST VEERING WIND PROFILES AS WELL AS STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL COEXIST NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. IN THIS
SCENARIO...SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS A SQUALL LINE
AS THE STRONGEST FORCING SURGES EWD. FOR SRN AREAS...LAPSE RATES
WILL NOT BE AS STEEP...AND FORCING SHOULD BE STRONGLY LINEAR.


Was this helpful? Or was I minimizing rain/storm potential too much? Answers to these questions would be greatly appreciated.

P.S. What wind speeds can we expect in the area the day of the cold front? Anyone know?

[txflagwaver]

OK...so will we get some of this or will it split around again?
Looks like a split...

http://www.my-cast.com/#77586,+TX

[srainhoutx]

The upper low over E Texas combines with deep Gulf moisture and a diffuse frontal boundary that will lift N are a recipe for showers and storms as we are seeing this morning. Friday night/early Saturday that much anticipated strong fall cold front should rapidly move in and perhaps a line of showers or storms will accompany that front. It does look like some fall like continental air will be pulled down by a deep upper low over the Northern/Central Plains. The first snow of the season may be on tap for the Northern Plains as well as a severe weather event well to our N. Time for that first pot of home made deer chili as the temps will cool to the low to mid 50's and warm to the mid to upper 70's with low 80's near the Coast.

[Ptarmigan]

The upper low over E Texas combines with deep Gulf moisture and a diffuse frontal boundary that will lift N are a recipe for showers and storms as we are seeing this morning. Friday night/early Saturday that much anticipated strong fall cold front should rapidly move in and perhaps a line of showers or storms will accompany that front. It does look like some fall like continental air will be pulled down by a deep upper low over the Northern/Central Plains. The first snow of the season may be on tap for the Northern Plains as well as a severe weather event well to our N. Time for that first pot of home made deer chili as the temps will cool to the low to mid 50's and warm to the mid to upper 70's with low 80's near the Coast.

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/HGX_loop.gif

The heat of the day will produce more thunderstorms later in the afternoon. Nice to see a cold front for a change.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1126 AM CDT TUE OCT 1 2013

TXC039-071-167-201-011815-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0071.131001T1626Z-131001T1815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAMBERS TX-BRAZORIA TX-HARRIS TX-GALVESTON TX-
1126 AM CDT TUE OCT 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1122 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL
CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
RAINFALL RATES ARE AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
EASTERN PASADENA...LEAGUE CITY...BAYTOWN...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...
GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON ISLAND EAST END...TEXAS
CITY......LA PORTE...DEER PARK...DICKINSON...LA MARQUE...SANTA
FE...SEABROOK...WEBSTER...HITCHCOCK...KEMAH...CLEAR LAKE...
CHANNELVIEW...HIGHLANDS...CLOVERLEAF...KINGWOOD...BARRETT...
EASTERN SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...CROSBY...NASSAU BAY...MONT
BELVIEU...TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE...EL LAGO AND BAYOU VISTA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA.
THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING.

[Paul Robison]

Dear Jeff, Ed or anyone it may concern:

Forecast models see a strong upper level storm system centered over Nebraska with strong winds diving into the Southern and Central Plains. It's a favoriable pattern for severe weather (unfortunately) and it will probably be an active day to our north. BUT: ATTM it looks like the main energy of the storm system will pass north of Texas. Thursday and Friday will, I am sure, be active storm-wise from Nebraska south into Oklahoma and points east. What's interesting is north/northwest winds on the back edge of this storm system, how they originate from Canada and are pushing air towards the south. It will help push a strong cold front south and bring an air-mass change into Texas on Saturday and Sunday.

Anyone have a different opinion from mine?


P.S. How's Canada this time of year?

[jeff]

Dear Jeff, Ed or anyone it may concern:

Forecast models see a strong upper level storm system centered over Nebraska with strong winds diving into the Southern and Central Plains. It's a favoriable pattern for severe weather (unfortunately) and it will probably be an active day to our north. BUT: ATTM it looks like the main energy of the storm system will pass north of Texas. Thursday and Friday will, I am sure, be active storm-wise from Nebraska south into Oklahoma and points east. What's interesting is north/northwest winds on the back edge of this storm system, how they originate from Canada and are pushing air towards the south. It will help push a strong cold front south and bring an air-mass change into Texas on Saturday and Sunday.

Anyone have a different opinion from mine?


P.S. How's Canada this time of year?

I am not sure what the question is, but it continues to look like a decent front will arrive into the area and push off the coast on Friday. May see a few showers and storms with the front and then lows in the 50's and highs in the low 80's Sunday-Monday. The sun angle is still up there and the air in Canada is not significantly cold, so no out of the ordinary cold...but for some it will be a refreshing wake up compared to the rest of this week.

[Paul Robison]

Dear Jeff:

The question is, will Houston get any strong/severe thunderstorms during the passage of this cold front?

[ticka1]

Jeff Lindner's Wednesday morning email 10/2/2013

An area of broad low pressure has developed over the western Caribbean Sea.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in organization overnight in association with a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea. Conditions are favorable for slow development of this system into a tropical depression or tropical storm as it moves generally toward the NW or NNW over the next 24-36 hours. Once in the Gulf of Mexico upper level wind shear will increase from the southwest ahead of a strong fall cold front which will move off the TX coast Saturday evening. In addition to the increasingly unfavorable upper level winds, the steering flow from the SW to NE ahead of the cold front should turn any tropical system toward the N and NNE into the central or NE Gulf coast. Should the front be delayed, any tropical system could potentially move further to the west, but at this time there appears to be little threat to the TX coast.

[srainhoutx]

Interesting to see the guidance continue to slow the progression of the strong cold front until later in the afternoon on Saturday. Our neighbors in Louisiana may need to follow the develops with 97L a bit closer mainly due to the heavy rainfall potential.

[wxman57]

The 6Z GFS says lows close to 50 degrees by monday morning, with the front coming through Saturday evening to Sunday morning. Not much, if any, precip with the frontal passage.

[srainhoutx]

Interests along the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida Panhandle need to follow the progress of 97L currently moving WNW in the Caribbean Sea. The latest guidance has slowed the progression of that strong Fall cold front that is expected to sweep this potential tropical system NE. Numerous RECON missions have been tasked and a mission is scheduled to investigate this area of disturbed weather this afternoon.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 02 OCTOBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z OCTOBER 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-123

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72        FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
       A. 03/1800Z, 04/0000Z        A. 03/2000Z
       B. AFXXX 0312A CYCLONE       B. NOAA2 0412A CYCLONE
       C. 03/1600Z                  C. 03/1800Z
       D. 23.3N 88.8W               D. 23.4N 88.9W
       E. 03/1730 TO 04/0000Z       E. 03/2000Z TO 05/0000Z      
       F. SFC TO 15,000FT           F. SFC TO 15,000FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 73      FLIGHT FOUR --NOAA 43
       A. 04/0600Z, 1200Z           A. 04/0800Z
       B. AFXXX 0512A CYCLONE       B. NOAA3 0612A CYCLONE
       C. 04/0430Z                  C. 04/0600Z
       D. 25.8N 89.3W               D. 25.9N 89.3W
       E. 04/0530Z TO 04/1200Z      E. 04/0730Z TO 04/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT          F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
       IF SYSTEM IS STILL A THREAT. P-3 MISSIONS DEPARTING  
       AT 04/1800Z AND 05/0600Z.

[jasons2k]

It's amazing that a front that strong can sweep through and not lay a drop.

[tireman4]

Ok, so front comes through at 7 pm on Saturday night. That means ( if I can get my stubborn injuries to somewhat heal), the Sunday morning 10K at the Houston Racepark should be good to go for great temperatures....