OCTOBER: Halloween Storm: Severe Storms/Flash Flood Threat?

[djmike]

Current pic now of IH-10 in Beaumont! Still pouring and rising fast!

[snowman65]

Im in Bridge City...Wherever that tornado was it must have been close to me.....wind got crazy...

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/31/13 1507Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1445Z JS
.
LOCATION...W MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA/SE ARKANSAS/SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...VERY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES FROM PORTIONS OF SE TX TO SE AR/W MS.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HAVE RECENTLY COORDINATED WITH WPC
REGARDING THEIR MOST RECENT MPD SO WILL TRY NOT TO BE REPETITIVE. IR
SATELLITE SIGNATURE SHOWS CLASSIC WEDGE SHAPED AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS WITH PERSISTENT UPWIND REGENERATION OCCURRING OVER SE TX. WATER
VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS ACTIVITY LOCATED WITHIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME AND ORIENTED GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW ARE HELPING TO SLOW DOWN THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHAT. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE NOW
APPEARS TO BE NEARING THE RIO GRANDE NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF SW TX
WITH THE INFLECTION POINT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE DEPICTED IN
SOME OF THE GOES SOUNDER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRODUCTS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, HAVE SEEN SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE APPROXIMATE
AREA FROM GONZALES COUNTY TX TO NEAR HOUSTON TX. THIS INCREASE IN UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IS CERTAINLY A SERIOUS CONCERN GIVEN THE CONSOLIDATING AND
SLOW MOVING DOWNSTEAM QLCS AFFECTING FAR SE TX TO NE LA.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1500-1800Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AS PER RECENT WPC MPD, EXPECT A RATHER HIGH HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA STRETCHING FROM SE TX TO AT LEAST AS FAR AS
NE LA AS UPSTREAM REGENERATION AND MERGING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS/BANDS
AND A PERIOD OF SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TRAINING OCCURS. RAINFALL RATES
OF 2-3"/HR WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY AND RAIN TOTALS OF 2-4" IN 3
HOURS ARE LIKELY IN THE THREAT AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, EXPECT
THE THREAT AREA TO GRADUALLY SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE PER TRENDS SEEN
IN GOES SOUNDER/BLENDED TPW PRODUCT WHICH SHOW MOISTURE PLUME BEING
SQUEEZED BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DRIER AIR APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AND THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO,
DENOTED BY POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR, HOLDING FIRM. THE GREATEST
THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM COASTAL SE TX(AT LEAST AS FAR SW AS THE CENT
TX COASTAL REGION) TO NEAR THE NE LA-W MS BORDER. THE QLCS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
THOUGH THE SOUTHERN END STILL NEEDS TO BE MONITORED FOR THE EFFECTS OF
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT.
.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1990
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SERN TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 311513Z - 311645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LIMITED THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALONG THE CNTRL/SERN TX
COAST FROM NEAR PALACIOS TO WEST OF TEXAS CITY. THREAT DOES NOT
APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM THE SRN TX COAST NEWD INTO THE
CNTRL AND SERN TX COASTAL AREAS. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED TO
SSWLY RESULTING IN SMALL 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...THE CNTRL AND
NRN HALF OF THIS BAND OF CONVECTION RESIDES WITHIN MODERATE-STRONG
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE NEWD NEXT COUPLE HOURS ALONG THE
CNTRL AND SERN TX COAST WHERE MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND MODEST WARMING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 1000-15000 J/KG MLCAPE.
THE NRN EXTENT OF THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY A SEWD ADVANCING
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS SERN TX. NEVERTHELESS...A
SMALL WINDOW WILL EXIST FOR STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NEAR PALACIOS
NEWD TO WEST OF THE GALVESTON BAY AREA TO PRODUCE A BRIEF TORNADO
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 10/31/2013


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1015 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

CHAMBERS TX-BRAZORIA TX-FORT BEND TX-GALVESTON TX-HARRIS TX-
1015 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1012 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
SOUTHEASTERN PASADENA...LEAGUE CITY...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...
GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON ISLAND EAST END...TEXAS
CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...ALVIN...NORTHEASTERN ANGLETON...DICKINSON...LA
MARQUE...SANTA FE...SEABROOK...WEBSTER...HITCHCOCK...SOUTHEASTERN
MANVEL...KEMAH...GALVESTON PIER 21...SOUTHEASTERN CLEAR LAKE...
NASSAU BAY...TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE...EL LAGO...DANBURY...BAYOU
VISTA...IOWA COLONY...CLEAR LAKE SHORES...JAMAICA BEACH...TIKI
ISLAND...HILLCREST AND LIVERPOOL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF OVER 2 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.
THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

[Rip76]

Coming down pretty steady in my area again...

No flooding though.

[Rip76]

Looks like some heavy training setting up for Houston now.

[srainhoutx]

^^

Yep. All the bayous and creeks are rising from run off...

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1035 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

COLORADO TX-BRAZORIA TX-FORT BEND TX-WHARTON TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
HARRIS TX-GALVESTON TX-AUSTIN TX-WALLER TX-
1035 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1033 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
PASADENA...PEARLAND...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...NORTHERN
FRIENDSWOOD...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...ROSENBERG...STAFFORD...SOUTH
HOUSTON...BELLAIRE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...KATY...RICHMOND...
GALENA PARK...TOMBALL...JACINTO CITY...WHARTON...JERSEY VILLAGE...
SEALY...NORTHERN MANVEL...BROOKSHIRE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...
BELLVILLE...COLUMBUS...EAGLE LAKE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY
POINT VILLAGE...MIDTOWN HOUSTON AND CLEAR LAKE.

BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE PREVIOUS 24
HOURS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5
INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1991
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SRN LA AND SRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 551...

VALID 311537Z - 311700Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 551 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL AND SWRN LA NEXT FEW HOURS...EVENTUALLY
SPREADING INTO SWRN MS. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO ALSO INCREASE
ACROSS SERN LA AND SCNTRL/SERN MS THIS AFTERNOON...AND A NEW TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 1730-18Z.

DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING
STRUCTURES...MESO-VORTICES AS WELL AS A SUPERCELL OR TWO ON SRN END
OF LINE EXTENDS FROM NERN LA INTO SWRN LA AND IS MOVING EAST AROUND
25-30 KT. THESE STORMS HAVE RECENTLY UNDERGONE SOME INTENSIFICATION
IN PART DUE TO THE MERGER OF TWO PRE-FRONTAL LINES RESULTING IN
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. MOREOVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE
LINE IS VERY MOIST...AND DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES
ARE SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR 80 F. STILL...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
MODEST WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MULTILAYER CLOUDS. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
IMPRESSIVE WIND PROFILES WITH 50+ KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY LARGE
HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTING 400+ M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. THE
LLJ WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD TOWARD THE TN/OH VALLEYS THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS...AND HODOGRAPHS EAST OF CURRENT WW WILL LIKELY REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

..DIAL.. 10/31/2013


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

NWS has issued a Flood Warning for Cypress Creek at Grant Rd.

The creek is 2.5ft from bankfull and continuing to rise. River Forecast Center modeling indicates the creek will over out of banks this afternoon. Flooding of low lying areas near the creek is possible. Low lying roads in the Grantwood subdivision upstream of the gage site may experience high water.

Current Stage: 114.2

Bankfull: 116.70

RFC Forecast: rise to near 118.5-119.0ft late this afternoon into tonight.

[ticka1]

email from jeff lindner

Flood Warnings:

Colorado River from below Austin to Columbus
Cypress Creek near Grant Rd
Navasota River at Normangee
Menard Creek at rye
Middle Yegua Creek at Dimebox

Closely monitoring:

Carpenters Bayou
Armand Bayou
South Mayde Creek
Lower Clear Creek
Spring Creek
Willow Creek
Keegans Bayou

[unome]

here's that gauge: http://www.harriscountyfws.org/GageDeta ... x/1160?R=1

and from http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1102 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EAST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 1059 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN IN FRIENDSWOOD OVER THE PAST HOUR. RAIN RATES OF 1.2
INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN MEASURED AT THE JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
WHERE NEARLY 4.4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 6AM CDT. FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN PASADENA...PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...
FRIENDSWOOD...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...ALVIN...NORTHEASTERN
ANGLETON...DICKINSON...SOUTH HOUSTON...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...
SEABROOK...WEBSTER...HITCHCOCK...MANVEL...KEMAH...CLEAR LAKE...
SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...GREATER HOBBY AREA...NASSAU BAY...TAYLOR
LAKE VILLAGE...EL LAGO...DANBURY...BROOKSIDE VILLAGE...
SHOREACRES...IOWA COLONY...CLEAR LAKE SHORES AND HILLCREST.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1108 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN ACADIA PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES MERMENTAU...
JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES...WELSH...JENNINGS...FENTON...

* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT

* AT 1101 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES WEST OF
WELSH...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PINE
ISLAND...EVANGELINE AND EGAN

[ticka1]

Latest email from Jeff Lindner:

NWS has issued a Flash Flood Warning for Harris County until 200pm.

Heavy Rainfall continues to train WSW to ENE across mainly the southern part of the county. Significant street flooding is in progress over the SE part of the county along I-45 stretching ENE into La Porte and Baytown. Rainfall amounts since 400am has averaged 3.5-4.5 inches over this area.

The following Watersheds are within 3 ft of bankfull:

Carpenters Bayou at I-10
South Mayde Creek at Greenhouse
Cypress Creek at Grant
Armand Bayou at Genoa-Red Bluff
Clear Creek at FM 528
Clear Creek at I-45
Cypress Creek at Cypresswood Dr
Chigger Creek at Windsong

[unome]

Current Briefing (updated at 11 am CDT)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/HMDmain.php

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

NWS has issued a Flash Flood Warning for Harris County until 200pm.

Heavy Rainfall continues to train WSW to ENE across mainly the southern part of the county. Significant street flooding is in progress over the SE part of the county along I-45 stretching ENE into La Porte and Baytown. Rainfall amounts since 400am has averaged 3.5-4.5 inches over this area.

The following Watersheds are within 3 ft of bankfull:

Carpenters Bayou at I-10

South Mayde Creek at Greenhouse

Cypress Creek at Grant

Armand Bayou at Genoa-Red Bluff

Clear Creek at FM 528

Clear Creek at I-45

Cypress Creek at Cypresswood Dr

Chigger Creek at Windsong

[ticka1]

Email from jeff lindner:

NWS has issued a Flood Warning for South Mayde Creek at Greenhouse Rd.

Creek is near bankfull and will go over banks shortly. Minor impacts are expected near the channel with water approaching Saums Rd and possibly inundating portions of Cullen Park.

House are not threatened at these levels.

[unome]

inter-active at the link, updated 11:31 am CDT: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1210 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

TXC481-312015-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0097.131031T1710Z-131031T2015Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WHARTON TX-
1210 PM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 1208 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
EL CAMPO...WHARTON...BOLING-IAGO...PIERCE...DANEVANG AND LOUISE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
IN THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR
FLOODING. THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAINS IS INTENSIFYING AND WILL LIKELY
MOVE IN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MATAGORDA AND NORTHWESTERN BRAZORIA
COUNTY IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.