OCTOBER: Halloween Storm: Severe Storms/Flash Flood Threat?

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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djjordan
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Andrew wrote:Very Concerning to see the training in NW Harris County and points NE and SW. This is ahead of the main line of storms and has plenty to work with. Could fill in through the morning hours.
These storms mean business. Rush hour this morning is going to be tricky. I drove from Montgomery down to SugarLand in the past two hours and encountered some torrential downpours along the way. I also witnessed numerous small tree limbs down along 149 and 249 north of Tomball which indicates some good wind energy with this. Gonna have to keep a close eye on Radar today as this looks to be a pretty good flooding event setting up.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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*** FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY***


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
327 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
COMAL COUNTY...
HAYS COUNTY...
TRAVIS COUNTY...

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT.

* AT 322 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED FROM NEAR BULVERDE
TO CANYON LAKE TO BUDA...DRIFTWOOD AND DRIPPING SPRINGS...AND THEN
TO AUSTIN. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES 5 TO 12 INCHES HAS ALREADY
FALLEN IN THE WARNING AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED. THIS WILL AGGRAVATE AN ALREADY LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION.

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR AREAS FROM BULVERDE TO CANYON
LAKE TO ACROSS MUCH OF HAYS COUNTY INTO AUSTIN.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...CANYON LAKE DAM...DRIPPING
SPRINGS...NEW BRAUNFELS...PFLUGERVILLE...SAN MARCOS...TANGLEWOOD
FOREST...WIMBERLEY...BEE CAVE...BUDA...DRIFTWOOD...FISCHER...
KYLE...LAKEWAY...MANOR...MANSFIELD DAM...MUSTANG RIDGE...
NIEDERWALD...ONION CREEK...ROLLINGWOOD...SPRING BRANCH...UHLAND...
WEST LAKE HILLS AND WOODCREEK.

NUMEROUS STREAMS AND RIVERS CONTINUE IN FLOOD...SOME IN MAJOR FLOOD.
NUMEROUS ROADS ARE ALSO CLOSED.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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srainhoutx
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Worrisome to see HGX reporting 30-40kt winds offshore on the rigs and suspecting it won't take much for those stronger winds to work down to the surface. Jeff Updated an hour ago. Stay safe out there today.
Overnight nearly stationary training rainfall from Austin to N of College Station has resulted in 6-9 inches of rainfall.

Significant flash flooding is in progress in the Austin and San Marcos areas with major rises on the following river:

Colorado River at Austin

Blanco River

San Marcos River

Navasota River

Radar continues to show the development of scattered showers/thunderstorms across most of SE TX has strong dynamics come into play over this extremely moist air mass. Expect main line of storms currently near/along I-35 to slowly move ESE into our area this morning. Rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour will be possible with the stronger storms leading to flash flooding.

The severe threat continues to look fairly marginal in the face of the flooding and flash flood threat, but would not rule out an isolated weak tornado or strong wind gust.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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djjordan
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5 - 15" of Rainfall reported!!!! FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
428 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

TXC091-209-453-311230-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0053.000000T0000Z-131031T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAYS TX-TRAVIS TX-COMAL TX-
428 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM CDT FOR
COMAL...TRAVIS AND HAYS COUNTIES...

...A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES FOR AREAS FROM BULVERDE TO
CANYON LAKE TO ACROSS MUCH OF HAYS COUNTY INTO AUSTIN...

AT 417 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING FROM
GARDEN RIDGE TO SAN MARCOS TO AUSTIN AND MANOR. DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE 5 TO 15 INCHES HAS FALLEN FROM BULVERDE AND
ANHALT TO CANYON LAKE TO WIMBERLEY...WOODCREEK AND DRIFTWOOD AND
THEN AUSTIN AND JOLLYVILLE. AN OBSERVER HAS REPORTED 13.1 INCHES AT
WIMBERLEY ALONG RIVER ROAD. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...WEST
LAKE HILLS...ROLLINGWOOD...PFLUGERVILLE...MANSFIELD DAM...MANOR...
LAKEWAY...BEE CAVE AND AUSTIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN. THE LIFE YOU
SAVE MAY BE YOUR OWN.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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A classic Texas Gullywasher going on ..... And for us in SE Texas it's gonna be a rough day!!!! Stay Alert everyone.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
455 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 453 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED CONTINUED TRAINING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE YESTERDAY AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL
QUICKLY RUNOFF TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LIVINGSTON...APPLE SPRINGS...ONALASKA...CORRIGAN...POINT BLANK...
SEVEN OAKS...LAKE LIVINGSTON STATE PARK...WEST LIVINGSTON...LEGGETT
AND MOSCOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
451 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

TXC015-157-201-339-473-311145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0090.131031T0951Z-131031T1145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
FORT BEND TX-MONTGOMERY TX-AUSTIN TX-HARRIS TX-WALLER TX-
451 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 AM CDT

* AT 446 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TRAINING HEAVY RAINS
STARTING TO SET UP FROM ROUGHLY CONROE TO TOMBALL TO BROOKSHIRE.
RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN MEASURED
BY SOME HARRIS COUNTY GAUGES. THIS HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
CONROE...NORTHERN ROSENBERG...KATY...RICHMOND...TOMBALL...JERSEY
VILLAGE...SEALY...BROOKSHIRE...PINEHURST...ELDRIDGE / WEST OAKS...
SPRING...THE WOODLANDS...ADDICKS PARK TEN...PECAN GROVE...MISSION
BEND...SPRING BRANCH WEST...HOCKLEY...OAK RIDGE NORTH...WALLER...
PANORAMA VILLAGE...SHENANDOAH...MAGNOLIA...FULSHEAR...CUT AND
SHOOT...SIMONTON...SAN FELIPE...STAGECOACH...PATTISON...WOODLOCH
AND CINCO RANCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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srainhoutx
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Bow echo heading towards Western Montgomery and Western Walker Counties. Heads up for strong damaging winds in Huntsville, Conroe and The Woodlands.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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djjordan
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srainhoutx wrote:Bow echo heading towards Western Montgomery and Western Walker Counties. Heads up for strong damaging winds in Huntsville, Conroe and The Woodlands.
I see that on radar .... I am down here in Sugar Land now .... there is some tremendous wind energy with these cells moving through. I estimate gusts to at least 40 MPH as these cells went through my neighborhood with torrential rainfall to boot!!!
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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Rip76
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This is insane right now in the Pearland area.

No power, very windy and lots if rain.
And... From the looks of HGX radar, a lot more to come.
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srainhoutx
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Update from Jeff:

Flash Flood Event in progress over central and SE TX.

Excessive rainfall in training bands is producing flash flooding across both central TX and Houston metro area. A nasty training band of thunderstorms has developed over the metro Houston area with rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour. This is leading to rapid urban flooding on roadways and freeways and rises on area watersheds.

Excessive rainfall across central TX overnight is leading to major rises to rivers including the Blanco, San Marcos, and upper Colorado Rivers.

There will continue to be training rainfall across SE TX for the next several hours with the flooding threat increasing as rainfall totals pile up.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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djjordan
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Rip76 wrote:This is insane right now in the Pearland area.

No power, very windy and lots if rain.
And... From the looks of HGX radar, a lot more to come.
Hang tight .... it's gonna be a rough ride today!!!! We haven't lost power here .... but we could if these winds keep up the way they are going.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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***Centerpoint reports 13,952 customers without power as of 6:01am***


FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
559 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

TXC071-201-291-311300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0091.131031T1059Z-131031T1300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LIBERTY TX-CHAMBERS TX-HARRIS TX-
559 AM CDT THU OCT 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT

* AT 556 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TRAINING HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES. THIS
WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA...ESPECIALLY
LOCATIONS THAT SAW 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY IN EASTERN
HARRIS COUNTY AND CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
PASADENA...NORTHEASTERN PEARLAND...LEAGUE CITY...NORTHERN
BAYTOWN...NORTHEASTERN FRIENDSWOOD...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...SOUTH
HOUSTON...BELLAIRE...HUMBLE...WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE...GALENA
PARK...JACINTO CITY...WEBSTER...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...
HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT
VILLAGE...MIDTOWN HOUSTON...CLEAR LAKE...FOURTH WARD...GREATER
THIRD WARD...GREATER EASTWOOD...ALDINE...SECOND WARD...NEARTOWN /
MONTROSE...MEMORIAL PARK AND NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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Rip76
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Appears to be a short break in the weather right now.
Now, if I can just figure out how to get my phone to make coffee.
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txflagwaver
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Have had rain here but nothing severe...no really high winds...breezy nothing like they had in Pearland evidently.
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djjordan
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***Bad flooding in southern Travis & Hays counties. Reports of people in waist-deep water & clinging to trees for rescue, evacuations. ***

This is some incredible rainfall happening.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
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djjordan
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 900 AM CDT

* AT 704 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE ADVISORY AREA WITH RAINFALL RATES OVER 2 INCHES
PER HOUR AT TIMES. PARTS OF THIS REGION HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 2-3
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 3 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL
QUICKLY RUNOFF AND PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
LOCATIONS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
SOUTHEASTERN CONROE...KATY...TOMBALL...JERSEY VILLAGE...
PINEHURST...SPRING...GREATER GREENSPOINT...THE WOODLANDS...ADDICKS
PARK TEN...ELDRIDGE / WEST OAKS...SPRING BRANCH NORTH...SPRING
BRANCH WEST...KINGWOOD...HOCKLEY...OAK RIDGE NORTH...SHENANDOAH...
SPLENDORA...PATTON VILLAGE...ROMAN FOREST...WOODBRANCH...CUT AND
SHOOT...STAGECOACH...WOODLOCH...CARVERDALE...PORTER HEIGHTS...HOOKS
AIRPORT...SPLASHTOWN...CYPRESS...THE WOODLANDS PAVILLION AND
WILLOWBROOK.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

West Gulf River Forecast Center, nice site updates this last year

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/

https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWea ... .WGRFC.gov

hoping these doesn't materialize...

Image

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unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

from: https://twitter.com/HCOHSEM

Harris County OHSEM ‏@HCOHSEM 4m

Harris County Flood Control reports rainfall is causing rise in bayou levels but no danger of overflow at this time. #texasrainfallmassacre
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