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Gabrielle Regenerates in Tropical Storm: South of Bermuda
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 1:37 pm
by Katdaddy
Invest 97L has been designated to the E of the Windwards. This is something to watch as it is positioned to enter the Caribbean Sea.
Re: Invest 97L East of the Windward Islands
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:11 pm
by srainhoutx
The 12Z UKMet suggest a developing disturbance S of Puerto Rico in 72 hours. It is also noteworthy the Euro Ensembles are becoming rather bullish on developing 97L as it travels W across the Caribbean. One observations with a disturbance tracking W is that the slower it actually develops, the better chance that it may end up in the Western/North Western Caribbean later next week.
Re: Invest 97L East of the Windward Islands
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2013 6:27 pm
by srainhoutx
The NOAA G-IV has completed its training mission and make numerous high altitude observations and did launch many dropsonde in the vicinity of 97L.
Re: Invest 97L East of the Windward Islands
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 8:36 am
by srainhoutx
Re: Invest 97L East of the Windward Islands
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 10:40 am
by srainhoutx
RECON Tasking for 97L has been issued to include a low level flight as well as another Global Hawk mission over the Caribbean Sea:
Code: Select all
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 01 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-092
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST OF
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SYSTEM NEAR 15.0N 72.0W FOR 03/1800Z.
3. REMARK: THE NASA 871 GLOBAL HAWK MAY FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION OVER THE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM...TAKING OFF AT
03/1100Z.
Re: Invest 97L Near the Windward Islands
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 12:51 pm
by srainhoutx
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Re: Invest 97L Near the Windward Islands
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 1:04 pm
by Katdaddy
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE CONDUCIVE...
BUT PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE COULD INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Re: Invest 97L Near the Windward Islands
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 1:08 pm
by srainhoutx
Hour 72 Surface Analysis for the Caribbean Sea:
Re: Invest 97L Near the Windward Islands
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 3:21 pm
by srainhoutx
The updated 1830Z surface maps for days 3-7 suggest that 97L or a possible Gabrielle will pass S of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands as it enters the NW Caribbean Sea.
Re: Invest 97L Near the Windward Islands
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 8:25 pm
by jeff
Not very organized just yet...with the LLC way out west of the "deep convection" Think it will struggle to get through the E Caribbean with any significant development...may see much better potential in the western Caribbean Sea toward the middle to end of the week. Steering pattern will be driven by incoming storm system in the PAC NW which amplifies the downstream ridge over the C US and deepens a trough over the E US. 12Z GFS has a retro-grading "TUTT" feature over SE TX next week under the belly of the ridge to our NW. Not sure the GFS is going to get this right as such features this summer have failed to be as significant as the models have shown.
If it waits to develop then a threat to the Gulf is possible...and I think this possibility is slightly greater at the moment as systems tend not to organized much in the E Caribbean Sea. If it develops in the central Caribbean Sea then there could be a threat to FL or the SE US coast, but there would also be some land interaction.
Re: Invest 97L Near the Windward Islands
Posted: Sun Sep 01, 2013 9:34 pm
by cperk
Thanks jeff your insight into these systems are appreciated.
Re: Invest 97L Near the Windward Islands
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2013 7:13 pm
by Texas Pirate
What's up with the BOC?
Wheres the thread?
Thanks
Re: Invest 97L Nearing Puerto Rico
Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 4:04 pm
by TexasBreeze
This system is now TD #7. Storm warnings put in effect for Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic.
www.nhc.noaa.gov
Re: Invest 97L Nearing Puerto Rico
Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 4:40 pm
by Texas Pirate
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2013
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO.
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORMWARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANOTO CABO FRANCES VIEJO AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SANTO DOMINGOTO CABO ENGANO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO
INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
Re: TS Gabrielle : Nearing Puerto Rico.
Posted: Wed Sep 04, 2013 8:28 pm
by Katdaddy
ATCF now has 07L.GABRIELLE. TD 7 upgrade to TS Gabrielle coming soon. Lots of flooding rains for Puerto Rico the next 24 hours.
Re: Remnants Gabrielle : Near Puerto Rico/DR.
Posted: Tue Sep 10, 2013 5:42 am
by Katdaddy
ULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
500 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013
...GABRIELLE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 65.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON BERMUDA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GABRIELLE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 36 MPH...57 KM/H
AND A GUST TO 40 MPH...65 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA. IN ADDITION...ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA BY THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
RAINFALL...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 6
INCHES POSSIBLE.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.