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Morning Area Forecast Discussion from Houston NWS..... looks like we'll have to keep an eye of the radar all day to see where this front decides to stall. Heavy rainfall is a threat.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
413 AM CDT SUN SEP 29 2013

.DISCUSSION...
PREFRONTAL TROF MAKING ITS WAY THRU NORTHERN PARTS OF SE TX AND
CURRENT MODEL GUESSES EVENTUALLY BRING IT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HWY
59 & THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS SERVING AS A
FOCUS FOR SLOW MOVING SHRA/TSRA. IT IS TAPPING INTO DEEP GULF
MOISTURE W/ PW`S BETWEEN 2.1-2.4" AND AS SUCH LOCALIZED CLUSTERS
ARE THROWING DOWN SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND
RAINFALL RATES NEAR 3"/HOUR. 88-D STORM TOTAL ESTIMATIONS ARE
SHOWING SOME ISOLATED 5-9" AMOUNTS. VAST MAJORITY OF AREA ARE NOT
GOING TO SEE THOSE AMOUNTS BUT THOSE THAT DO WILL SEE SOME STREET
FLOODING TYPE ISSUES ESP OF ONE DECIDES TO DO IT IN A METRO AREA.

ECMWF/GFS BOTH ACTUALLY NUDGE THE BOUNDARY JUST OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
CORRESPONDING RAIN CHANCES WILL GO AS THE BOUNDARY DOES. DID
LOWER THEM A TOUCH IN THE SHORT TERM BASED ON MODEL AGREEMENT BUT
STILL LEFT SOME NUMBERS ABOVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS IN CASE IT DOES
LINGER THE BOUNDARY INLAND AS NAM12 SUGGESTS.

THIS TROF SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND WASHOUT MONDAY NIGHT &
TUESDAY AS PRESSURES FALL TO THE NW. ANTICIPATE A RETURN TO MORE
DIURNAL TYPE ISO/SCT PRECIP PATTERN INTO THURS.

COLD FRONT STILL PENCILED IN FOR THE WEEKEND - FRI NIGHT & SAT
MORNING AS OF NOW. THOUGH IT SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE HERE...MIGHT
BE WORTH WATCHING THE GULF AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLNS SUGGESTING LOW
PRES AREA DEVELOPING N OF THE YUCATAN LATE IN THE WEEK AND GETTING
SWEPT NEWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 47

HGX re issues a Flash Flood Warning for Grime, Waller & Washington Counties where 3-10 inches of rain have fallen overnight. Those with travel plans W on 290 need to expect flooding. Worrisome to see training storms redeveloping as the pre frontal trough slowly creeps S with its 3 inch per hour rainfall rates. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed for portions of SE Texas today including Metro Houston. Keep an eye on the radar today.

OK I'll take rain..period...too much is ok...too little no bueno. Any guesses on our Winter? Wet, dry, warm, cold??

txflagwaver wrote:OK I'll take rain..period...too much is ok...too little no bueno. Any guesses on our Winter? Wet, dry, warm, cold??

Winter? I'm gonna go with a cooler than normal winter and slightly wetter than normal. That's my guess for the upcoming season.

djjordan wrote:

txflagwaver wrote:OK I'll take rain..period...too much is ok...too little no bueno. Any guesses on our Winter? Wet, dry, warm, cold??

Winter? I'm gonna go with a cooler than normal winter and slightly wetter than normal. That's my guess for the upcoming season.

I like it!

Latest AFD from NWS HGX .......

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR TREND THIS MORNING HAS STRONGEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED HEAVIEST RAINFALL GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN SECTION OF OUR AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-45
CORRIDOR. OF MOST CONCERN ARE LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE CONROE AREA TO JUST
SOUTH OF CORRIGAN WHERE RAINFALL ESTIMATED TOTALS ARE UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES.
ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY ARE AS HIGH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES...
BUT THIS IS FORTUNATELY MOVING INTO AREAS WHERE VERY LITTLE RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. WE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO ISSUE A COUPLE URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO COVER THIS RAINFALL.
SOME LOCATIONS FROM THE HOUSTON AREA AND OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE SOME VERY BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING. LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE TRENDING TOWARD BRING AN END TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TONIGHT. 42
&&

agreed, not enough rain fell here

We had some light rain in Stafford off and on this morning. Sun is shining now.

.20" yesterday and .70" today = .90" for the event. Not too bad but could use more, for sure.

I have 5.59" for September. This is the highest monthly total for me since March of 2012, when I recorded 6.11".

Those heavy rain events in small areas are hard to forecast. Those forecast models forecast large areas, not small areas.

I didn't get much rain but I do expect some more this week .... just enough to keep the lawn happy. Letting it grow for a couple weeks before mowing it.

2.14" yesterday here in Beaumont, and so far this morning .20" and still pouring. Over 7" for September. Cant complain. Expected to get more today.

Looks like Beaumont and East TX need to build an Ark!! Over 4" over my home today and many areas just north of Beaumont got another 6"-10" ON TOP of yesterdays 2"-5"!! Isn't Beaumont or Jefferson county the ONLY county to not be in a drought in TX except for extreme west TX? Sooo glad I live here! ...Well, just for the no drought reason...lol

Just in time!

Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
227 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

TXC245-302130-
/O.NEW.KLCH.FA.Y.0060.130930T1927Z-130930T2130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFFERSON TX-
227 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PORT NECHES...NEDERLAND...CENTRAL
GARDENS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 224 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATES THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING
OVER PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES
ARE APPROACHING 3 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR. THE RAPID RUNOFF OF THESE
RAINFALL RATES IN URBAN AREAS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT STREET
FLOODING. ACTUAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4
INCH RANGE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
ON SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS...AND BAYOUS. ADDITIONALLY...PONDING OF
WATER WILL OCCUR ON HIGHWAYS...STREETS...AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS
OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING AREAS.


A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3009 9410 3006 9403 3003 9403 3003 9400
3001 9400 3001 9396 2999 9393 3000 9392
2998 9386 2987 9421 2997 9430

$$

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
405 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

TXC201-302300-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0068.130930T2105Z-130930T2300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARRIS TX-
405 PM CDT MON SEP 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT

* AT 401 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.
REPORTS OF HIGH WATER AND HIGH WATER RESCUES HAVE ALREADY COME
IN FROM LOCAL MEDIA AT INTERSTATE 10 AND FEDERAL.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
NORTHWESTERN PASADENA...NORTHWESTERN BAYTOWN...DEER PARK...GALENA
PARK...JACINTO CITY...HIGHLANDS...CHANNELVIEW...CLOVERLEAF...
GREATER FIFTH WARD...BARRETT...DENVER HARBOR / PORT HOUSTON...
CLINTON PARK TRI-COMMUNITY...NORTHSHORE...PLEASANTVILLE AREA...
HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL...SAN JACINTO STATE PARK...EL DORADO / OATES
PRAIRIE...HARRISBURG / MANCHESTER...HUNTERWOOD AND MAGNOLIA PARK.