Fernand Dissipates In Mountains of Mexico

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013


...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND...

AROUND 630 PM CDT...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAD INCREASED TO AT LEAST 45 MPH...
75 KM/H...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM FERNAND (PRONOUNCED
FAIR-NAHN).

A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 PM CDT...2300
UTC...TO INCREASE THE 12-HOUR INTENSITY TO 50 KT AND TO ADJUST THE
FORECAST SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF 630 PM CDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 95.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 23:00Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 22:31:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°06'N 95°43'W (19.1N 95.7167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 198 miles (319 km) to the WNW (293°) from Villahermosa, Tabasco, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NNW (348°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 63° at 42kts (From the ENE at ~ 48.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NNW (348°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1003mb (29.62 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 491m (1,611ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 501m (1,644ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NNW (348°) from the flight level center at 22:24:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
400 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013

OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR AND SURFACE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.
WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS FROM LA MANCHA BEACH...NOT FAR TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTER...SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASS OF MEXICO.
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.

WHILE IT WAS CROSSING THE COASTLINE...THE CENTER TURNED TO THE
RIGHT...AND IT PRACTICALLY PARALLELED THE COAST AFTER MOVING
INLAND. THIS MOTION MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SINCE THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FARTHER WEST LATER TODAY...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FERNAND. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A MAINLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...VERY HEAVY RAINS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 19.8N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 26/1800Z 20.4N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1800Z 21.5N 100.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$