July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[Paul Robison]

The model disagreement remains rather high with the GFS keeping the highest chances of rain across Louisiana and the Central Gulf Coast. On the other hand, the Euro/CMC and UKMet are much more aggressive with heavy rain chances further W even into S Central Texas. Satellite imagery does suggest that the upper level wind shear is relaxing across the Bay of Campeche and the current surface analysis suggests the tropical wave axis is offshore of the State of Campeche. Also of note is the boundary is retreat back N across the offshore waters of Louisiana and a cyclonic ridge is developing near Monterrey, MX extending into the Western Gulf Waters. We'll need to monitor the progression of the deep surge of tropical moisture moving slowly W to NW from the NW Caribbean. If the upper level winds relax enough, there is some potential for development as the area of disturbed weather shifts generally W toward our part of the Gulf. In the mean time, everyone have a safe and Happy 4th of July and we'll continue to monitor and update as conditions become a bit more clear.

FACT: Yellow means caution, that's why the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has drawn a yellow circle on their Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook around an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am July 2 outlook, they gave the region a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Friday.


FACT: All satellite loops show only minimal heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance, which is suffering from high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Dry air due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico is also interfering with development.


FACT: The upper-level trough will weaken and pull to the north late this week, bringing more favorable conditions for development over the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Friday. The atmosphere will moisten and wind shear may fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. The disturbance should move west to west-northwest, arriving near the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday or Tuesday.


FACTl None of the reliable forecast models predict the disturbance will develop.


QUESTION: Whgn you said "toward our part of the Gulf, do you refer to Houston/Galveston in particular or the whole state of Texas?

[PaulEInHouston]

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Areas of interest in my opinion that bear watching this upcoming weekend! GFS (still running it appears) is trying to latch on to a closing system in BOC and, like some of the NCEP track ensembles, brings it generally N towards the Middle Texas coast. Mexico radar is depicting an apparent circulation that has moved offshore of the Yucatan (circled area). Shear is high still, but may relax in next few days...time will tell.

[djmike]

Courtesy of KPRC 2 Houston

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[Paul Robison]

Hi, DJ Mike.

So KPRC is saying that the whole Texas Gulf Coast is in the same boat when it comes to this tropical weather?

[djmike]

Hi, DJ Mike.

So KPRC is saying that the whole Texas Gulf Coast is in the same boat when it comes to this tropical weather?

According to their newscast and this graphic they released on FB, it sounds like it!

[Paul Robison]

At best it might be a minimal TS, and we need the rain.

Some other TV stations may be hyping viewers with talk of 'tropical troubles' as a holiday weekend approaches.

However, I do love looking and hotlinking satellite imagery in false color IR

Agree with you about minimal TS. It seems to have nothing in common with the 1909 July Hurricane. That was a TS before it came to the Yucatan Peninsula and ultimately to Freeport, TX. I don't think it's got time to become anything powerful.

[Rip76]

I'm missing the westerly component.

[SusieinLP]

I'm with you, Rip...

[TexasBreeze]

If that eastern gulf moisture plume moves west, usually those type of plumes don't move this far west. They tend to stay where they are then northeastward. The disturbance would probably follow the trail ne.

[jeff]

Coordinated call between NHC and WPC today was downplaying development. It is going to be messy whatever possibly becomes something in the western Gulf with the interactions of a tropical wave and upper level trough. Those set ups tend to be sloppy lopsided systems.

Aside: fire danger will be very high on Thursday and Friday or until widespread wetting rainfall happens. KBDI values range between 500-700 across the area with Brazoria County over 700. Luckily winds will be light until the seabreeze punches inland and or around any thunderstorm outflows. If a surface low does develop and move E of us, the fire danger will be extreme next week with dry and gusty northerly winds across parched ready to burn grasses. Larger fuels are still moist, so would not expect crown fire potential. Be very careful with those fireworks.

[Paul Robison]

Coordinated call between NHC and WPC today was downplaying development. It is going to be messy whatever possibly becomes something in the western Gulf with the interactions of a tropical wave and upper level trough. Those set ups tend to be sloppy lopsided systems.

Aside: fire danger will be very high on Thursday and Friday or until widespread wetting rainfall happens. KBDI values range between 500-700 across the area with Brazoria County over 700. Luckily winds will be light until the seabreeze punches inland and or around any thunderstorm outflows. If a surface low does develop and move E of us, the fire danger will be extreme next week with dry and gusty northerly winds across parched ready to burn grasses. Larger fuels are still moist, so would not expect crown fire potential. Be very careful with those fireworks.

I would also point out, Jeff, that the current steering layers maps show weak steering currents over the BOC ATT. However a weakness in the the ridge directly north of the BOC should allow for a NNW-NW drift over the next 48 hours. Based on the current forecast steering layers maps, a more pronounced NNW motion, then NWD motion could ensue after that.

Based on the sloppy appearance this morning, and an increase in shear to the north, We probably shouldn't worry about development ATT. But, hey, let's not let our guard down, folks. Significant changes can occur. IF this develops at alL, IMHO, it would most likely be a weak system elevated to that of Tropical Depression level.

[skidog40]

Im real interested to see this thing come off land.

[Rip76]

Development I don't care about, rain... I do.

[ticka1]

Development I don't care about, rain... I do.

same here rip76 -need the rain

[skidog40]

deep down, weather lovers want development

[Rip76]

deep down, weather lovers want development

Oh, I do agree.
But I'll take whatever.

[srainhoutx]

A quick update this morning. The 06Z GFS trended W with the best 850mb vorticity along the Upper Texas Coast albeit weak spreading inland near Galveston/Freeport and on NNW. The Euro was somewhat similar with both models suggesting increased rain chances across the Eastern half of Texas on E into Louisiana. The upper trough is filling in and shearing out and shear is relaxing across the Western Gulf this morning. The main convection is over the Yucatan and drifting WNW to NW this early morning hour. There continues to be a brief window for something tropical to spin up E of Tampico heading generally N towards the Texas/Louisiana Coasts before moving inland Monday/Tuesday. The next item of interest is an upper low/inverted trough skirting Florida and heading W into the Gulf next week. It appears we may be entering an unsettled pattern with daily rain chances next week.

[Rip76]

I will continue to water.

[Kludge]

I will continue to water.

I suspect I'll water Saturday afternoon when we get back home. I'll have another day and a half of models to look at.


I still want to know what is in that wildly over-optimistic NCEP probs graph which appears to show nearly a 100% chance of TC genesis in the BoC.

Radar for sea breeze watching and satellite for Gulf watching.

===============

Well, Ed...compared to your "totalbuzzkill" graphic earlier on this page, this looks much more promising. The Trend is our Friend. Fingers ... and all other available appendages ... crossed.

Remember the GFS tendency: predict a significant weather event 10 days out, kill it 5 days out, then re-predict it 3 days out.

After 20" through June 1, and almost nothing since, this is beginning to feel like last year again around here. I think the only reason Grimes County doesn't have a burn ban in force right now is that we're running out of vegetation that might burn

[srainhoutx]

The NHC is now mentioning the more Southern area for potential development ~vs~ the Northern end of the trough. This does fit with what the NCEP Ensemble TC Genesis charts have been suggesting.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. WHILE THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR WHILE
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE