July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[unome]

from http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=al942013

[Rip76]

Sadly,
I don't know if we want this thing to spin up, and pull all the moisture toward it.

[unome]

if we don't get rain north of I-10 I will have my very own tropical depression...

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
136 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013

TXZ248>257-062245-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
136 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013


...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST.
UNORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST NORTHEAST OF TAMPICO...MEXICO. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH. AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKS
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 72 HOURS...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN
MAKERS AS THE ATMOSPHERE OVER SOUTH TEXAS BECOMES SATURATED AND
SUFFICIENT LIFT DEVELOPS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OFFSHORE TONIGHT MOVING INLAND
EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT...GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE INTO THE
REGION. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF
LOCALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES FALLING ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND 1 TO
2 INCHES WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
OCCURS...LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.

[Rip76]

Very clear skies here.
It's almost as if the clouds are staying away on purpose

[ticka1]

Very clear skies here.
It's almost as if the clouds are staying away on purpose

trickery tropics

[kayci]

Not looking too promising for Tx City is it? From what I've read (correct me if I'm wrong please) most of the rain is headed to our southwestern coastal areas, like Corpus etc??? Please fill me in a bit, sometimes this 'technical talk' confuses me and I don't always understand the lingo... thanx

[skidog40]

wow, the day we keep our guard down. That birth canal seems to be closing.

[djjordan]

IMO this isn't going to be a widespread heavy rain producer like we kept thinking earlier in the week. The coastal counties will benefit some but it would appear that we are heading for an increasingly hotter and drier July once the ridging takes control again. I say we all get out the hoses and water our lawns tonight. Perhaps the increased moisture will be like a mating call for the moisture in the gulf to head this way and give us more rain than we expected LOL.

[ticka1]

non event?

[kayci]

[Rip76]

DJ,
I did my part.

Watered 1/2 the day.

[Rip76]

I have a question.
You'd think I would know this by now.

Watching this system for the last few days, I've noticed the storms seem to wain during the evening.
With a tropical system, I thought daytime heating wasn't a huge factor with tropical systems?

Does this have to do with diurnal min/max?
Or because there's no real core?

Thanks in advance.

[Snowman]

Well convection has deteriorated. This system will almost surely not have any sort of organization. However, this could be good news for rain chances. Maybe one of those large convection blobs we saw in the gulf earlier today will form again tomorrow to give us some rain.

[Rip76]

If they can hold together, looks like a line of storms about 75 miles south of Galveston ready to move in.
*Looking at radar*

[skidog40]

finally some positivity.

[Rip76]

Trying to hold some hope.
Looking at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom ... _loop.html

A little red is trying to make its way back in.

[Rip76]

There's a line just off the coast....
(Maybe not "just off.")

If it can just hold together.

[srainhoutx]

Nice shot of Hurricane Erick along the Pacific Coast of Mexico and our mess.

[Rip76]

A little spot of high clouds in "our mess."