Post Tropical Storm Andrea:

[wxman57]

Yep, nothing for us in Texas. We're getting the worst of it today.

[TexasBreeze]

We have an 'orange' in the se Gulf...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED TODAY. ADDITIONAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT ...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[srainhoutx]

00Z tracks and intensity:

[srainhoutx]

Not much of organizational change with 91L this morning. A mid level spin is currently S of New Orleans along a trough axis of general lower pressures extending from the Bay of Campeche on E toward the Florida Keys. The monsoonal gyre should remain highly sheared and little, if any real development is expected over the next couple of days. Heavy rainfall and possible flooding issues may be a concern for Cuba and the Florida Keys and S Florida the next couple of days as the disturbance generally moves N to NNE.

[jeff]

surface and ship obs suggest it is very broad and I do not see any evidence of a W wind. NW wind on the N coast of the Yucatan is likely seabreeze induced. Several "swirls" rotating around the larger mean circulation...but nothing tight and little to no deep convection. If the 30kts of WNW shear and dry air abates for 24-48 hours maybe a weak TS which is what the models continue to advertise...a sloppy wet eastern flank and messy center with many re-locations possible under/near deeper convection on the eastern side. Main impacts continue to be flooding rainfall.

[brooksgarner]

**UPDATE 2:10PM -- Latest satellite loop reveals a parent circulation under the main area of clouds/convection... The initial parent low well west appears less dominant and dissipating. We may have a tropical storm, after all, though the center is partially exposed, so that isn't ideal for the system to strengthen too much further (thankfully.) Thoughts??**

The developing Gulf low continues to expand its convection across the eastern Gulf... Will it be named??

I see very dry, continental air entraining into the system, producing even more sheer and turbulance, which will no doubt lead to a dangerous potential for many tornadoes across west-central Florida. They'll be brief, weak twisters from low-top, tropical "mini-supercells", but it only takes an EF1 to make for a bad day if it hits anyone's dwelling.

I suspect that TEAL flight teams out of Biloxi will find at least a tropical depression this afternoon -- or if they decide to go higher I'd expect a subtropical storm, instead of a full-on TS ... Obviously the exposed center is well west of the main convection, thanks to the 20-30kts of shear and with all that dry air, it's arguably taking on characteristics of mid-latitude cyclone (distant echos of the 1993 no-name storm [http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/?n=93storm]) ...

Other challenges for 91L: Water temperature .... It's a bit cool on those shelf waters... I suspect this morning's flare-up is from its relative proximity to the loop current... That will soon change.

Expect an expansive tornado watch to be issued from Ft. Myers all the way to Jacksonville late tonight, lasting through the day on Thursday... We'll see a swath of 6"+ of rain in <12hrs... This will lead to street flooding in urban areas and brief swelling of small streams and rivers, flooding adjacent streets, but I do think the sandy soil will efficiently absorb whatever 91L has to dish, so widespread, significant flooding will thankfully be difficult to achieve. With that said, it only takes 2"-3"/hr in Tampa to flood those streets/intersections, so people there will have the impression that it's pretty bad.

If the limited "surge" from the SE fetch keeps the tide from going out, any rain will likely flood Bayshore and other prone areas of South Tampa, because the water will have nowhere to go.

Rip currents will be rough.............

See you at 4pm today with an update.

-Brooks Garner
Meteorologist KHOU 11 News

[Ptarmigan]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051627
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT WED 05 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-005

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OG MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 06/1645Z
D. 28.3N 85.8W
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 07/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0401A CYCLONE
C. 07/0345Z
D. 29.3N 83.7W
E. 07/0530 TO 07/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL FIX MISSION
NEAR 33.0N AND 78.0W AT 07/1800Z

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WVW

Recon is being planned for 91L.

[brooksgarner]

... it'll be interesting to see if this is classified as a pure tropical system, or sub-tropical... NHC up's chance to 60%... TEAL 72 enroute.

[jeff]

Center is very broad with "multiple swirls" rotating around a mean circulation. Strong winds and covnection are displaced well to the SE/E. My thought would be no classification today...but NHC tends to be generous sometimes in these types of situations.

Regardless if/when it is classified, the impacts will be the same. Big rains for FL with most of the state on the favorable wet inflow side of the system.

[brooksgarner]

I agree 100% that the effects will be very simliar tomorrow for FL... Because the NHC seasonal forecast is for an "above-average" season, I would not be surprised if they're generous in naming this one...

[srainhoutx]

RECON data suggests they may have found a 'center' worthy of an upgrade. We'll see if a Vortex message is sent shortly as the C-130 heads back to locate.

[brooksgarner]

Waiting on that VORTEX message, but the plane has so far traveled only west of the satellite-indicated center of convection...

[TexasBreeze]

It's TS Andrea.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like an upgrade will be coming shortly:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912013_al012013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306052121
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 01, 2013, DB, O, 2013060300, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL012013

[unome]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 052126
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS
FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KBIX)
Disseminated Through: Keesler AFB, backup for KNHC (TPC/NHC)
Transmitted: 5th day of the month at 21:32Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Mission Purpose: Investigate first suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 5th day of the month at 20:53:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°11'N 86°38'W (25.1833N 86.6333W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 307 miles (495 km) to the W (278°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the NW (310°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 57° at 36kts (From the ENE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the WNW (303°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 243m (797ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 242m (794ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 24°C (75°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph) in the quadrant at 0:69
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 47 KT 069/49 19:43:00Z

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
FOUND A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
LARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED
VERY RECENTLY SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN.
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002
MB...PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...AND BELIEVABLE
BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT. THESE DATA
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...THEN
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH
THEY ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF JUMPS OR REFORMATIONS OF THE
CENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS EXPECTED.
AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THERE WILL BE SOME
BAROCLINIC FORCING BY THAT TIME...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN ANDREA
WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ANDREA REMAINING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THE TRANSITION TO A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD OCCUR SOONER.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THE
PRIMARY EFFECTS FROM ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS NAME IS ANN- DREE UH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2200Z 25.3N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 26.5N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 28.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 31.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1800Z 34.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1800Z 43.0N 67.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 45.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z 47.0N 25.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[srainhoutx]

Update from Jeff:

First tropical storm of the 2013 hurricane season forms in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Warnings are issues for the FL west coast and Big Bend of FL.

Tropical storm Watches are issued for the FL E coast and the SE US coast.

Based on recent aircraft data from the USAF a small well defined center has emerged near the western edge of the deep convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. I have my doubts if in fact this is an actual center or one of several smaller circulations rotating around a mean circulation as noted in visible satellite images today. Regardless, NHC has declared the system has enough organization based on the center fix and the 40-50mph winds found in the deep convection on the SE and E flank of the system.

Strong wind shear and dry air over much of the center Gulf of Mexico should keep the system from developing much prior to landfall. The system is tracking slowly N, but will turn toward the NNE and then NE and increase in forward speed. Model guidance is in good agreement on this track and shows a fairly tight clustering. Due to the wind shear and dry air west/over the low level center, expect all of the weather will this system to be on the east side over the FL peninsula.

[brooksgarner]

Andrea lives... Marginal system, but a system nonetheless. Just glad it's not coming to Houston. This'll be a good dose of rain, needed for their water table going into an iffy summer... The "wet seasons" haven't been so "wet" in the past few years there.

[David Paul]

I'm always glad when the first storm of the season misses us. However, this is exactly what Lake Travis needs to fill it back up. Hey Brooks, nice call on them upgrading/naming the storm this afternoon. I thought they might hold off.