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The overnight Global and ensemble guidance continue to advertise an area of disturbed weather festering in the Bay of Campeche during the coming week. The reliable models are suggesting a sloppy system moving N to NE toward the North to NE Gulf Coast by next weekend. While wind shear will likely keep a strong system from developing, heavy rainfall and flooding may be an issue for areas of S Central Louisiana on E into Florida. With the 2013 NATL Hurricane Season starting tomorrow, right on cue we have something to monitor. All indications are pointing to an active season and this serves as a reminder to dust off those Hurricane plans should we need them later in the summer.

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Headed N/NE between NO to and FL. As usual...seems like TX will get gypped of any type of tropical moisture. IF anything forms, we will be on the HOT and DRY side! I sure hope this is'nt the future trend for the 2013 season. <sigh>

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

"THE FAR WEST LOOKS HOT AND DUSTY UNDER A MEAN RIDGE."

I'll assume that is referring to us....

This refers to the west coast. We look to be under Semi NW flow aloft late this week into the weekend with potential for NW flow short waves and MCS's to potentially affect the area. Depends on how much the ridge in the SW US amplifies as to the channel of the MCS train.

There is still not much in the way of organization with newly designated 91L this morning. This is a typical monsoonal trough gyre that we see in early June and the reliable models still are rather uncertain as to if anything tropical or sub tropical develops from this area of disturbed weather. What it does mean is increased rainfall across Florida and the NE Gulf. Any development if any should be very slow to occur and will be hampered by wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico.

The more reliable 12Z models (GFS/Euro) suggest a possible Tropical Depression or very weak highly shear Tropical Storm may impact the West Coast of Florida from Tampa to Apalachicola later this week.

Yep, nothing for us in Texas. We're getting the worst of it today.

We have an 'orange' in the se Gulf...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED TODAY. ADDITIONAL GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT ...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

00Z tracks and intensity:

Not much of organizational change with 91L this morning. A mid level spin is currently S of New Orleans along a trough axis of general lower pressures extending from the Bay of Campeche on E toward the Florida Keys. The monsoonal gyre should remain highly sheared and little, if any real development is expected over the next couple of days. Heavy rainfall and possible flooding issues may be a concern for Cuba and the Florida Keys and S Florida the next couple of days as the disturbance generally moves N to NNE.

surface and ship obs suggest it is very broad and I do not see any evidence of a W wind. NW wind on the N coast of the Yucatan is likely seabreeze induced. Several "swirls" rotating around the larger mean circulation...but nothing tight and little to no deep convection. If the 30kts of WNW shear and dry air abates for 24-48 hours maybe a weak TS which is what the models continue to advertise...a sloppy wet eastern flank and messy center with many re-locations possible under/near deeper convection on the eastern side. Main impacts continue to be flooding rainfall.

**UPDATE 2:10PM -- Latest satellite loop reveals a parent circulation under the main area of clouds/convection... The initial parent low well west appears less dominant and dissipating. We may have a tropical storm, after all, though the center is partially exposed, so that isn't ideal for the system to strengthen too much further (thankfully.) Thoughts??**

The developing Gulf low continues to expand its convection across the eastern Gulf... Will it be named??

I see very dry, continental air entraining into the system, producing even more sheer and turbulance, which will no doubt lead to a dangerous potential for many tornadoes across west-central Florida. They'll be brief, weak twisters from low-top, tropical "mini-supercells", but it only takes an EF1 to make for a bad day if it hits anyone's dwelling.

I suspect that TEAL flight teams out of Biloxi will find at least a tropical depression this afternoon -- or if they decide to go higher I'd expect a subtropical storm, instead of a full-on TS ... Obviously the exposed center is well west of the main convection, thanks to the 20-30kts of shear and with all that dry air, it's arguably taking on characteristics of mid-latitude cyclone (distant echos of the 1993 no-name storm [http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/?n=93storm]) ...

Other challenges for 91L: Water temperature .... It's a bit cool on those shelf waters... I suspect this morning's flare-up is from its relative proximity to the loop current... That will soon change.

Expect an expansive tornado watch to be issued from Ft. Myers all the way to Jacksonville late tonight, lasting through the day on Thursday... We'll see a swath of 6"+ of rain in <12hrs... This will lead to street flooding in urban areas and brief swelling of small streams and rivers, flooding adjacent streets, but I do think the sandy soil will efficiently absorb whatever 91L has to dish, so widespread, significant flooding will thankfully be difficult to achieve. With that said, it only takes 2"-3"/hr in Tampa to flood those streets/intersections, so people there will have the impression that it's pretty bad.

If the limited "surge" from the SE fetch keeps the tide from going out, any rain will likely flood Bayshore and other prone areas of South Tampa, because the water will have nowhere to go.

Rip currents will be rough.............

See you at 4pm today with an update.

-Brooks Garner
Meteorologist KHOU 11 News

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051627
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT WED 05 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-005

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OG MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 06/1645Z
D. 28.3N 85.8W
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 07/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0401A CYCLONE
C. 07/0345Z
D. 29.3N 83.7W
E. 07/0530 TO 07/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL FIX MISSION
NEAR 33.0N AND 78.0W AT 07/1800Z

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WVW

Recon is being planned for 91L.

... it'll be interesting to see if this is classified as a pure tropical system, or sub-tropical... NHC up's chance to 60%... TEAL 72 enroute.

Center is very broad with "multiple swirls" rotating around a mean circulation. Strong winds and covnection are displaced well to the SE/E. My thought would be no classification today...but NHC tends to be generous sometimes in these types of situations.

Regardless if/when it is classified, the impacts will be the same. Big rains for FL with most of the state on the favorable wet inflow side of the system.

I agree 100% that the effects will be very simliar tomorrow for FL... Because the NHC seasonal forecast is for an "above-average" season, I would not be surprised if they're generous in naming this one...