EPAC Season 2013 Discussions: Gil Weakening/TD 8E Forms

[srainhoutx]

The 2013 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season begins this week ( May 15th ). The monsoonal trough is beginning to fester with an area of disturbed weather moving W and out to sea. Development appears unlikely as this disturbance encounters increasing wind shear.

[srainhoutx]

90 E as been designated:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305131832
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013051318, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP902013
EP, 90, 2013051218, , BEST, 0, 65N, 916W,

[Ptarmigan]

Some of those East Pacific storms cross into the Atlantic. Examples of EPAC storms that crossed into Atlantic and became new storm.

Hurricane #10 1949
Tropical Storm #1 1965
Tropical Storm Allison 1989

Sometimes, they give rain and sometimes lead to flooding like in 1994 (Rosa) and 1998 (Lester and Madeline).

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 PM PDT TUE MAY 14 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY...AND
ROUTINE OUTLOOKS WILL BEGIN AT 5 AM PDT TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...8...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep902013_ep012013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305151245
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 01, 2013, DB, O, 2013051318, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP012013
EP, 01, 2013051218, , BEST, 0, 63N, 927W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 01, 2013051300, , BEST, 0, 64N, 936W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 01, 2013051306, , BEST, 0, 65N, 944W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 01, 2013051312, , BEST, 0, 67N, 952W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 01, 2013051318, , BEST, 0, 69N, 959W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 01, 2013051400, , BEST, 0, 70N, 968W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 70, 35, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 01, 2013051406, , BEST, 0, 71N, 977W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 01, 2013051412, , BEST, 0, 72N, 987W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 01, 2013051418, , BEST, 0, 74N, 998W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 01, 2013051500, , BEST, 0, 76N, 1010W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 01, 2013051506, , BEST, 0, 78N, 1023W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 01, 2013051512, , BEST, 0, 80N, 1031W, 30, 1006, LO,

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS RIGHT
ON CUE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.2N 103.6W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
200 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1612 UTC SHOWED THAT THE DEPRESSION HAD WINDS
VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR A TROPICAL STORM. THE CLOUD PATTERN IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED SINCE THE TIME OF THAT
PASS...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM. THE INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT 35 KT.

THE ASCAT PASS ALSO HELPED TO BETTER LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290 DEGREES AT 11
KT. ALVIN IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MAINLAND MEXICO OVER THE
PACIFIC...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE STORM
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NEAR CALIFORNIA COAST IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...CREATING
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPLIT IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH THE STRONGER GFS AND GFDL SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND THE WEAKER ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOTION BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SOMEWHAT SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BUT DOES FAVOR THE SCENARIO OF A STRONGER
NORTHWESTWARD-TURNING STORM.

MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ALVIN REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE...BUT EVEN THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ALVIN GETTING
STRONGER THAN WE INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ALVIN IS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER A WARM POOL OF WATER WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30.5C...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE MINIMAL
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES
TO SHOW A STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND HAS BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH DAY 3. FASTER STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE...AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX NOW SHOWS A 1 IN 3
CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAKENING SHOULD BE UNDERWAY IN 4 TO 5 DAYS MAINLY DUE TO STRONGER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 8.7N 105.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 9.3N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 10.0N 108.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 10.6N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 11.1N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 12.5N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 14.0N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 15.5N 117.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[srainhoutx]

91 E has been designated:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep912013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305221701
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 91, 2013, DB, O, 2013052212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP912013
EP, 91, 2013052112, , BEST, 0, 99N, 960W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 90, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2013052118, , BEST, 0, 100N, 970W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 80, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2013052200, , BEST, 0, 101N, 980W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2013052206, , BEST, 0, 102N, 990W, 15, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2013052212, , BEST, 0, 103N, 1000W, 20, 1009, DB,

[srainhoutx]

I don't *think* it is 91E, (I could be wrong) but GFS suggesting some remnant mid level moisture from an EPAC TC landfall could effect weather IMBY next week.

Wind shear looks to be fairly high across the EPAC, but if the 12Z Euro is on to something one would think increased mid level moisture is certainly possible with such a troughy pattern developing to our W. Also it does appear the some deeper tropical moisture will begin to enter the Western Gulf from the Caribbean next week.

[srainhoutx]

92 E has been declared and the NHC gives the Gulf of Tehuantepec disturbance a 60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone as it moves generally WNW to NW. As mentioned in the NATL thread, things have been festering along the monsoonal trough for over a week and this disturbance has a chance to increase deep tropical moisture across the Western Gulf late this week as it turns more N to NE as moisture crosses Mexico. Some of the models are suggesting an inverted trough forming near the Bay of Campeche or Tampico late next week in the far Western side of the Atlantic Basin. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 27 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO. IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF MEXICO...AND INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

[srainhoutx]

Looks advisories for Tropical Depression 02 E are coming for our EPAC Gulf of Tehuantepec disturbance:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep922013_ep022013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201305281826
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING NEAR THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION
HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM SAB. THEREFORE...
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN ILL-DEFINED UP UNTIL NOW...BUT THE BEST
GUESS IS A NORTHWARD DRIFT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT FEELS
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24
HOURS.

THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH RUGGED TERRAIN. DUE TO THE LARGE CLOUD FIELD
AND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...THE BIGGEST HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 14.2N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 14.9N 96.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 16.2N 95.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/0600Z 17.6N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 18.6N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BARBARA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM BARBARA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 96.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO.

[Katdaddy]

Approaching hurricane strength.

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
325 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF MEXICO...

AT 325 AM PDT...1025 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO BARRA DE TONALA.

A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO FORECAST
BARBARA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

SUMMARY OF 0325 AM PDT...1025 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 95.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM BARBARA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013

RECENT RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE THAT BARBARA HAS
BEEN TRYING TO FORM AN EYE...AND HAS APPARENTLY INTENSIFIED. BASED
UPON THE CURRENT TRENDS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS WARRANTED TO
INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST OF BARBARA TO INDICATE HURRICANE
STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BASED ON RECENT CENTER FIXES...THERE
HAS BEEN A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
TRACK. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE 1200 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1200Z 15.2N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 15.7N 94.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 17.0N 94.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 18.0N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

[srainhoutx]

The monsoonal trough may become active again in about a week and the Global models are already ‘sniffing’ some potential development. The GFS is suggesting that Cosme may develop and there are also hints an area of disturbed weather developing in the Western Caribbean, but that is a different Topic.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 11 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

93 E has been designated in the EPAC about 650 miles SSW Of Manzanillo Mexico:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep932013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201306111759
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 93, 2013, DB, O, 2013061112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP932013
EP, 93, 2013061112, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1065W,