February-Comfortable Days/Cool Nights To The Month

[Katdaddy]

Strong cold front should be E of SE TX by noon. A few strong to possibly severe storms may develop late morning but the main story will be the winds this afternoon and evening:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM
NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING...

.A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING....AND
STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON UNDER A
TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WIND ADVISORY MIGHT
NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER INTO THE EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-260100-
/O.CON.KHGX.WI.Y.0003.130225T1800Z-130226T0100Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
359 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST
THIS EVENING...

* EVENT...WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH

* TIMING...NOON TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING

* IMPACT...CROSS WINDS SHOULD MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS DIFFICULT
AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DRIVERS OF VANS...CAMPERS...TRAILERS...AND OTHER HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES
SHOULD BE ALERT TO THE DANGER OF THESE WINDS...ESPECIALLY WHEN DRIVING
ALONG NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED ROADS.

[srainhoutx]

Panhandle Blizzard Update:

Thunder snow with 2-3 inch per hour snow fall rates continue from Lubbock to Amarillo. The storm system continues to deepen with 3-5mb per hour pressure drops as the U/L slowly moves generally E from SW of Lubbock. The guidance did well suggesting a more Southern track but missed the trowal by suggesting that feature would be further E. Travel is virtually impossible across most of the Panhandle and most plowing operations have ceased. Snow totals of 2ft+ are likely with some isolated totals near 3 feet. Winds are gusting in to 60 to 70 mph range across many locations. Snow drifts will likely end up in near historic for the Panhandle. Closer to home a skinny line of showers and isolated storms are moving E into the Western zones of SE TX. The main story will be the very gusty winds later today as the storm to our N and W continues to intensify and track near Sherman in N Texas tonight.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

A powerful winter storm over the central plains this morning with bring a strong cold frontal passage to the area over the next few hours.

Strong cold front is currently plowing through central TX and is nearing our western counties early this morning as a full scale blizzard is in progress over the TX panhandle into Oklahoma and Kansas. Main surface low over NW TX will deepen today blasting the cold front through the area by late morning. Strong forcing along the front should generate a thin line of showers and thunderstorms which will move rapidly west to east across the area. Instability and less capping east of I-45 will support a marginal severe threat with strong winds being the primary concern.

Deepening surface low will result in a very tight pressure gradient across the region by early afternoon with WNW winds increasing to 20-30mph with frequent gust to 40-45mph. A wind advisory is in effect starting at noon and will continue into the early evening hours. Winds of this magnitude may cause tree limbs to fall on power lines and down dead trees from the 2011 drought.

Other item this afternoon will be fire weather as strong winds couple with very dry air to produce critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for this afternoon for all counties, but feel the highest fire danger will be along and west of a line from College Station to Wharton where rainfall over the past several weeks has been lower compared to locations near the coast and E of I-45. With such strong winds expected, any fire that develops will burn quickly out of control.

After today mainly clear and cool weather for the rest of the week. Another cool front will move across the region on Thursday, but little moisture will mean generally no rainfall. This front will bring a bout of colder weather for Friday-weekend with lows into the low to mid 30’s and highs in the 50’s to near 60.

[srainhoutx]

A couple of early morning TX DOT webcam shots from just N of Lubbock and Amarillo:

02252013 745AM Hale Center I27 Lubbock TMCE9%20CCTV%20Pump%20Station_LBB.jpg (7.6 KiB) Viewed 3489 times

02252013 Amarillo 745AM TX DOT I40%20-%20Bell_AMA.jpg (5.47 KiB) Viewed 3489 times

[wxman57]

Sorry for trolling, but I do want to know this:
Could tomorrow's expected near-40mph wind gusts produce damage similar to hurricane irene?

...snip...

Winds near 40 mph could be enough to produce spotty power outages across southeast Texas. Perhaps a few tree branches will fall on power lines, or the moving power lines could come into contact with nearby trees causing a few breakers to trip. No significant damage, though.

[unome]

NWS Amarillo video of blizzard

http://youtu.be/w3U5S4QCqSY

[Cromagnum]

I see the wind is going to blow about as hard as the forecasts do lately. Severe storms and rain coming...oh wait sprinkles, and not any colder. The last 2 "winters" have been depressing.

[unome]

as of 9:01 CenterPoint reports 1238 customers without power - that's up from 700-something around 7 am

power outages might be a concern with high winds

this site has links for all states http://vielmetti.typepad.com/vacuum/201 ... -maps.html

locally of course, here's centerpoint http://gis.centerpointenergy.com/outage ... index.html they even have a NexRad layer available for their map, but it's static

[srainhoutx]

From a meteorological standpoint this is an awesome looking storm.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0925 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...E TX INTO SRN AR/LA/SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251525Z - 251630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...HAIL POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN
DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WW WILL BECOME LIKELY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING EWD ACROSS NWRN
TX ATTM...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION INVOF CDS
/CHILDRESS TX/ AND THE SURFACE LOW NOW JUST N OF ABI /ABILENE TX/.

S OF THE SURFACE LOW...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES SURGING EWD
THROUGH E TX...WHILE THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS
E TX TO THE VICINITY OF LCH /LAKE CHARLES LA/.

WITH ONLY A SLIVER OF LOW-LEVEL GULF AIR INLAND ATTM -- OVER THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA AND VICINITY...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
FOCUSED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RESIDE ATOP A SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
ONGOING INVOF THIS AREA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS ALONG WITH ATTENDANT HAIL POTENTIAL.

WITH TIME...AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT. WITH TIME...EXPECT THE NOW-STABLE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE OVER LA TO BE REPLACED BY A FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER -- AND GIVEN VEERING/STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED SEVERE WEATHER IN ADDITION TO THE
ONGOING HAIL THREAT. ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL --
PARTICULARLY IF A LINE OF STORMS EVOLVES ALONG THE PACIFIC
FRONT...ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY WITH PRE-FRONTAL
SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION.

..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 02/25/2013


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...

[unome]

wind advancing across tx http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/U ... Speed.html



http://hint.fm/wind/

water vapor/500mb loop shows how moisture will feed up from the gulf http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html

[srainhoutx]

Numerous reports coming in from the Amarillo area of stranded motorist and emergency first responders attempting to rescue those folks. Also reports that the National Guard has been activated to assist with the rescues. NWS Amarillo is suggesting this may break the all time 24 hour snow totals for that area suggesting this is indeed a Historic Winter Storm.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
833 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013

...CRIPPLING BLIZZARD ROARS ON...

.UPDATE...

GOING FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. THE NWS OFFICE NOW HAS OVER 13 INCHES
ON THE GROUND WITH 3-4 FOOT DRIFTS AND A MAX GUST TO 58 MPH. THE SE
TX PANHANDLE HAS BEEN SLOW TO FILL IN WITH SNOW AFTER THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DROPPED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THESE AREAS
MIGHT END UP WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE 8 INCH SIDE THAN THE 14 INCH
SIDE OF THEIR RANGE. AT THE END OF THE DAY...THE HEAVIEST TOTALS
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE ALONG A PALO DURO CANYON TO AMARILLO TO
STINNETT TO PERRYTON LINE.

SOME RECORDS SEEM TO BE IN A PRECARIOUS POSITION TODAY. THE FIRST IS
AN ALL-TIME 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD AT AMARILLO OF 20.6 INCHES FROM
MARCH 25-26 1934. WE WILL LIKELY GET VERY CLOSE OR SURPASS THIS
NUMBER BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE OTHER IS THE ALL-TIME STATE OF TEXAS 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD OF
25 INCHES IN FOLLETT SET MARCH 28 2009. SOMEWHERE IN THE
PERRYTON/STINNETT/BORGER/AMARILLO AREA COULD APPROACH THIS VALUE BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

SIMPSON

[txflagwaver]

Sunny here....

[Portastorm]

And of course, the thin line of storms that looked encouraging about an hour ago has now fallen apart to nothing but sprinkles and continuing to lose its punch as it approaches central TX. Looks like we'll get dry slotted again Portastorm!

Same ol' story. I'm really getting to hate the weather here in Austin. Lake Travis will be a puddle of mud by August.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the E...

[Portastorm]

Weather story of the day here in Austin is the wind. American Airlines has cancelled all flights in and out of ABIA after 2 p.m. today. Several thousand homes in south Austin currently without power due to winds knocking down trees knocking down powerlines. Sustained winds here 20-25 mph out of the west with gusts above 40 and some unofficial reports of gusts to near 50 mph.

[Belmer]

Like Porta said, wind here is crazy! I was in my Oceanography class when power went out. Class got cancelled. I would say easily sustained winds of 30mph with gust of 40+. I almost got knocked over. That would have been embarrassing.

Edit to add: debri is really bad here too. Leafs flying at your face doesn't feel good. Also dusty here in San Marcos.

[unome]

CPS Energy shows over 20,000 customers without power http://outagemap.cpsenergy.com/CPSStati ... 2_EXT.html

AEP Texas https://www.aepcustomer.com/outagemap/m ... n=aeptexas

Austin Energy https://my.austinenergy.com/outages/

Oncor http://stormcenter.oncor.com/default.html


Blizzards to our northwest, tornadoes to our east - even though we have a windy day it a beautiful sunny 72 here right now !

[Ptarmigan]

And of course, the thin line of storms that looked encouraging about an hour ago has now fallen apart to nothing but sprinkles and continuing to lose its punch as it approaches central TX. Looks like we'll get dry slotted again Portastorm!

Same ol' story. I'm really getting to hate the weather here in Austin. Lake Travis will be a puddle of mud by August.

The best part, as always, once safely clear of Houston the line redevelops into strong storms.

The next 7 or 9 days looks like a bone dry temperature forecast, cool, cold, or freezing cold. As boring as boring gets.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/iahgfs.png

Hopefully we do not get into the vicious drought cycle again. Last year's West Nile epidemic were related to the drought.

The spring rain forecast from Climate Prediction Center is not encouraging.



Drought aids breeding of West Nile carriers
http://www.toledoblade.com/Medical/2012 ... riers.html

What's making the 2012 West Nile virus outbreak the worst ever?
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504763_162- ... orst-ever/

What may be more frightening is that drought conditions may also lead to an increase in other mosquito vector-diseases, said Lockaby.

We should be concerned about this drought as they encourage more disease carrying mosquitoes to breed.

[srainhoutx]

Winds have certainly picked up and become very gusty here in NW Harris County this past hour. We are having gusts in the mid 30 mph range. College Station just reported a 40 mph gust and Brenham is gusting to 39 mph.