February-Comfortable Days/Cool Nights To The Month

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

srain, can you interpret the above? Thanks.

The GFS is suggesting a low near 25 with some light wintry mischief before drying out near the 18th-19th. Oh course we can't trust the models beyond 5 days if even then, but the Climate Prediction Center update today did put all of the Western 2/3rd of the US in below normal temps and above average precip from E Central TX on E into Louisiana. We will see.

What he wants to see is this kind of cold building up here just prior to it heading down there (with some moderation) :

[C2G]

Rain to our west is getting an early start.


.

[Katdaddy]

We could use the rainfall:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
512 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

TXZ213-214-235>238-071115-
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
512 AM CST WED FEB 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DENSE SEA FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW A HALF MILE IN A
FEW LOCATIONS. THE FOG SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THIS MORNING.

LATER TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL FALL ALONG THE COAST
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES AND SOME ISOLATED
TOTALS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES. A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

[txflagwaver]

Starting already this morning..thought we were gonna be dry until the afternoon. Good deal. Need really good soaking rains..

[srainhoutx]

A series of short waves (3) are noted this morning on WV Imagery. The first is weakening over Houston and a second vort is just E of Cotulla with a third and final disturbance over NE Mexico. As HGX mentioned, the SPC analysis is suggesting heavy rainfall closer to the Coast as the day progresses. Jeff mentioned this as well last night. Convection and a hint of a meso low is suggested E of Cotulla early this morning moving slowly E and perhaps a touch ENE. Rain chance should increase in areal coverage from S of San Antonio to Victoria on E into the Houston area mainly along and S of I-10 and further E into Beaumont/Lake Charles as a high pressure ridge breaks down an slides further E.

The fly in the ointment will be the placement of a boundary as Jeff mentioned last night. The closer to the Coast that boundary is draped the more offshore the heavier rainfall will occur. What we can not predict are mesoscale features and forcing that may shift that boundary further N or inland. This will likely be a 'watch the radar trends' day and should provide a nice workout for the new HGX dual pol. Training rains with heavier storms are possible with the air mass becoming fully saturated in the 1-2 standard deviations above normal for this time of year. We'll monitor the progress today for any potential isolated flooding potential. The area of disturbed weather should shift E into Louisiana during the overnight hours with foggy conditions possible tomorrow morning. More on the Weekend/early next week forecast later in the day.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Active weather already in progress this morning as a potent short wave over NW TX interacts with increased moisture over southern TX.

Radar shows several batches of rainfall moving across SE TX this morning with the first batch weakening along the I-45 corridor and the next batch incoming over Wharton County. Further upstream south of San Antonio radar shows stronger activity and storms have pulsed to severe levels in the past hour in this area. Surface analysis indicates a weak coastal trough of low pressure is situated from offshore of Galveston Island to Matagorda Bay and then inland north of Corpus Christi. PWS range from 1.4 over the Matagorda Bay region to 1.1 over the Lake Livingston areas but a large mass of values of 1.6-1.7 are moving northward over deep south TX at this time and should reach the Matagorda Bay area by late morning (CRP AM sounding very came in with 1.57in PW. Instability has increased overnight across the TX coastal bend with 500-1000 J/Kg of CAPE located from west of Houston to near Corpus Christi (AM CRP sounding had 1143 J/KG of surface CAPE). Interestingly, the current severe supercell south of San Antonio is just west of this axis of greater instability.

As lift continues to be provided over the area by the short wave trough aloft and surface low pressure trough expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to continue for much of the day. Supercell activity currently south of San Antonio will likely grow upscale into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) by mid morning as this feature moves into greater moisture and instability. This is supported by several of the meso models showing an ENE moving MCS developing over SC TX this morning and then moving E to ESE into the TX coastal plains this afternoon and evening. The severe threat is fairly marginal but a few severe storms will be possible especially right near the coast and offshore. Main threat would be large hail and damaging winds. In fact the TX TECH 3KM WRF shows several “bowing” line segments in the storms as they progress toward the coast this afternoon/evening. Additionally, instability will be greatest near the coast with the best chances of storms becoming surface based.

Other item is the heavy rainfall potential. Moisture levels will be increasing through the day as a low level jet on the order of 20-25kts transports the deep moisture over S TX northward. The air mass will become increasingly saturated across the area with rainfall production peaking this afternoon. Nearly stationary coastal boundary/surface trough should act as the focus for training thunderstorms and heavy rainfall this afternoon and do not expect this feature to lift much northward today. Thus far this morning most of the activity has been north of this boundary, but expect the development of an MCS over SC TX in the next 3-6 hours to help focus downstream development closer to the coast with a large light to moderate rain shied covering most inland locations. Rainfall amounts will average 1-2 inches between US 59 and the coast and generally an inch or less inland (NW) of US 59. Grounds are fairly dry as rainfall has been lacking over the past 3 weeks with much of what falls today being able to be absorbed into the soil. Could see some minor flooding in urban areas if/when heavy rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour develop.

Series of short waves will move east of the area tonight with dry westerly flow developing on Thursday and continuing into Friday. No cold front with these systems suggest no air mass change with lows remaining in the 60’s and highs in the 70’s. Light winds and warm dewpoints over cool nearshore waters will continue to promote dense sea fog formation after the rainfall passes today. Visibilities will hover in the .25 to .75 of a mile range from early Thursday possibly into the weekend for the coastal locations and inland bay areas. Will see the sea fog bank spread inland each night from the coast reaching at least I-10.

After a break in the rainfall Thursday and Friday, rain chances begin to increase again on Saturday as southerly winds return and moisture begins to increase ahead of a large SW US storm system. Looks like the main upper trough hangs back into the SW US into early next with a cold front moving down the plains and into the coastal TX area on Sunday. Not very confident where this front will stall out, but it is possible that it stalls across the region with a series of weak disturbances riding up and along the frontal slope Monday/Tuesday. Will onset scattered rain showers Saturday afternoon and increase rain chances into Sunday as the front moves into the area.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST WED FEB 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER TO MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061248Z - 061415Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING ACROSS SCNTRL TX.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOCATED FROM NEAR LAREDO EXTENDING NEWD TO NEAR VICTORIA WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE MID 60S F. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IN
SPITE OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT
INSTABILITY IS WEAK ACROSS SCNTRL TX WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 250
TO 500 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 50 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO THREAT THIS MORNING. SHEAR AND LIFT ARE BEING
ENHANCED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET ANALYZED OVER
SCNTRL TX. ALTHOUGH THE CELL CURRENTLY IN MCMULLEN COUNTY APPEARS TO
BE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THE CELL
COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED AS IT MOVES EWD ONTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN. IN THIS CASE...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
THREAT COULD PERSIST IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL THREAT.

..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 02/06/2013


ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/06/13 1019Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-E 1015Z GOES-W 1000Z GG
.
LOCATION...S TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...TRAINING...BACKBUILDING
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV LOOP SHOWS E-W SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL WEST TEXAS IS LIFTING SLOWING NEWARD AND WITH A
DEEP WSWLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED WEAK S/W AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED MAXIMA
AIDING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SLIGHT PRESSURE FALLS. ADDITIONALLY
SUPPORTING INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL FLATLANDS OF NE
MEXICO INTO S TX WITH AN INCREASE OF PWS FROM 1-1.25" EARLY THIS MORNING
TO AROUND 1.4-1.6" ACROSS THE SAME AREA. FIRST IMPULSE HAS ROTATED
THROUGH WITH THE NOSE OF THE 80KT SPEED MAX LEADING TO TRIGGERING OF
THE SECOND CURRENT OVER ATASCOSA COUNTY.

THESE COMPLEXES HAVE BEEN PRODUCING 1-1.5"/HR RATES GIVEN RELATIVELY
WARM TOPS AND MODERATE AVAILABLE MOISTURE... LEAVING A SWATH OF 2-3"
TOTALS ACROSS WEBB AND LASALLE EVENTUALLY TO KARNES BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
REACH FFG VALUES ATTM.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1200-1800Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK... PERSISTENT CONVECTION COULD BE LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A COLD POOL POTENTIALLY LEADING TO INCREASED FRONTOGENSIS ACROSS
S TX... WITH PERPENDICULAR 20-25KT 925MB FLOW... ISENTROPIC FORCING
ACROSS THIS ENHANCED BOUNDARY COULD INCREASE COVERAGE AND INCREASE MST
FLUX FOR MORE EFFICIENT CELLS. WITH OR WITHOUT THIS FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING... CONTINUED UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL FORCING CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
BACKBUILDING CELLS INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SIERRA MADRE. WIND
PROFILES ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONTINUED ENELY MOVEMENT FOR CONTINUED
TRAINING... EVENTUALLY ECLIPSING THE HIGH FFG VALUES IN THE AREA.

[mcheer23]

Radar filling in toward the SW.

[srainhoutx]

An early look at the late weekend/early next week time frame suggests that WSR (Winter Storm RECON) may have helped the GFS a bit. That operational model is suggesting Saturday night into Sunday may well be rather stormy as a 500mb upper low and embedded short waves dig into the Great Basin. A positive tilted trough develops with some Northern Stream phasing as a second low develops early Monday into Tuesday and begins to move ENE from New Mexico into Texas. A frontal boundary will drop S on Sunday and stall while a deep cyclone develops to our W and cold Canadian air is pulled S. Cyclogenesis begins in earnest across the Southern Plains with over running heavy rains before a sharp Canadian cold front finally clears the Region mid next week.

In the cold sector across Northern New Mexico into the Panhandle and Oklahoma, heavy wet snow/ice is possible via the 12Z GFS. In the ‘warm sector’, heavy training rains with embedded storms develop. It is also noteworthy for those that may have travels plans this weekend to the Philadelphia, New York to Boston areas, a powerful Winter KU type storm is suggested by the models that adds to the large scale societal impacts of this potent weather pattern that appears to be developing. The potential of 12-18+ snow amounts are suggested by the early 12Z guidance for those Regions.

[Ptarmigan]

An early look at the late weekend/early next week time frame suggests that WSR (Winter Storm RECON) may have helped the GFS a bit. That operational model is suggesting Saturday night into Sunday may well be rather stormy as a 500mb upper low and embedded short waves dig into the Great Basin. A positive tilted trough develops with some Northern Stream phasing as a second low develops early Monday into Tuesday and begins to move ENE from New Mexico into Texas. A frontal boundary will drop S on Sunday and stall while a deep cyclone develops to our W and cold Canadian air is pulled S. Cyclogenesis begins in earnest across the Southern Plains with over running heavy rains before a sharp Canadian cold front finally clears the Region mid next week.

In the cold sector across Northern New Mexico into the Panhandle and Oklahoma, heavy wet snow/ice is possible via the 12Z GFS. In the ‘warm sector’, heavy training rains with embedded storms develop. It is also noteworthy for those that may have travels plans this weekend to the Philadelphia, New York to Boston areas, a powerful Winter KU type storm is suggested by the models that adds to the large scale societal impacts of this potent weather pattern that appears to be developing. The potential of 12-18+ snow amounts are suggested by the early 12Z guidance for those Regions.

This weekend and next week could be interesting. I would not rule out severe weather.

[mcheer23]

It will be interesting if see any back building behind this rain moving into SE TX now.

[srainhoutx]

For the weather lover, what a truly impressive Winter Weather (Nor'easter) event depicted by all of the Global guidance for the NE. It's not very often we see such a winter storm potential with such heavy amounts of snow. The winds may reach near hurricane force along Cape Cod into the Boston area as well.

12Z Euro:

[srainhoutx]

Looking toward the weekend into mid next week concerning our Region. The 12Z Euro is suggesting strong storms and a potential squall line developing Sunday and moving SE along the frontal boundary that stalls along the Texas Coast. Early next week as upper level energy hangs back to our W across the Great Basin and additional short wave activity dives SE into the base of the trough, over running heavy precip develops N of the boundary and increases on Tuesday as the 500mb low/trough axis begins to slowly shift E. There are some indications that wintry mischief may be possible across the Panhandle, N Central/NE TX into OK and AR as well as Northern LA Tuesday into Wednesday. We will see.

Hour 96:

Hour 120:

Hour 144:

Hour 168:

[Portastorm]

Looking toward the weekend into mid next week concerning our Region. The 12Z Euro is suggesting strong storms and a potential squall line developing Sunday and moving SE along the frontal boundary that stalls along the Texas Coast. Early next week as upper level energy hangs back to our W across the Great Basin and additional short wave activity dives SE into the base of the trough, over running heavy precip develops N of the boundary and increases on Tuesday as the 500mb low/trough axis begins to slowly shift E. There are some indications that wintry mischief may be possible across the Panhandle, N Central/NE TX into OK and AR as well as Northern LA Tuesday into Wednesday. We will see.

Both the 12z Euro and CMC (Canadian) model runs look promising for a winter weather event in north and northeast Texas. Still a long ways to go though but trends are encouraging.

[srainhoutx]

Once again the 12Z Euro suggests a wash, rinse and repeat pattern continuing through day 10...

[jasons2k]

It looks like everything is offshore now....so....what else is new ??

[mckinne63]

Is there more to come? It's been clearing up here in Stafford, but lots of fast moving clouds and it's really windy outside.

Nice to see some rain today. Folks at work were grumbling, I had to once again remind them about the drought. I will not complain about rainy days for the next 10 years.

[Baseballdude2915]

Rain event looks to moved quicker than forcasted and is pushing out of the area currently.

Any wrap around later tonight or are we dry until Sunday?

[srainhoutx]

I just emptied .62 inches out of the old rain bucket in NW Harris County. It looks like rain chances increase again late Saturday into Sunday and into the early part of next week before that strong Canadian front pushes through.