Wx Infinity Forums

Nothing interesting happening. Moisture is moving out and the sun comes out this week and no big arctic blasts for us in the cards in a week. It's going east.

Always seems close but no cigar. I have lived here all my life and it is the same old same old....cold with no moisture or moisture with no cold. Very difficult to get it all together at the same time. But we keep watching and hoping!

We lost power about an hour ago. Anybody else having power trouble?

Nope, we have power here in Porter.

Hurricane season is months away. The Atlantic water is running warmer than normal.

The long wave positive tilted trough that has plagued the Region is on the move across N Central Texas this morning and should finally bring an end to the clouds that have covered the Region later today. An bright orange ball in the sky that has been missing for so long should finally make an appearance ending the damp and dreary weather of the past 5 days. A couple of fronts although weaker than the last on should pass the Region on Sunday and late Monday before moderating temps begin and we finally warm to more seasonal temps next week. The Coldest air of the season will finally reach the Eastern 1/3 of the Nation that has endures well above normal temps throughout this Winter while we in the Western 2/3rds that have endured well below normal temps that brought record cold will moderate as a large Ridge of High Pressure builds across the Great Basis. The next weather event for our Region may arrive later next week into next weekend as a very large N Pacific Winter Storm approaches California. Enjoy the sunshine. It is something we have seen very little of since December...

what about towards the end of the month? Into February? This can't be all there is - but I agree - everything has to be just right. Sometimes I dislike living so close to the gulf. If I had the means I'd move further north. Come on, there has to be more!

cristina99 wrote:what about towards the end of the month? Into February? This can't be all there is - but I agree - everything has to be just right. Sometimes I dislike living so close to the gulf. If I had the means I'd move further north. Come on, there has to be more!

Winter is not over cristina99. It's just taking a break for the Western 2/3rds of the US. Later today when the sun is up I'll post an image of just how cold and snowy it has been across the West. Late January into early February are our climo prime time for Winter Weather across our Region. My hunch is winter will return, but a break after almost 6 weeks of lack of sunshine will be most welcome. This break is probably nothing more that a typical January thaw.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
114 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013

VALID 12Z SAT JAN 19 2013 - 12Z WED JAN 23 2013

BY THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN
ACROSS THE CONUS MAY START TO BREAK DOWN. THE UPPER VORTEX OVER
HUDSON BAY IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH ALLOWS
NORTHERN ENERGY TO RIDE THE NORTHWEST FLOW OUT OF CANADA THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST... BRINGING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE WINTER TO MANY PLACES. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD
SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT AND HAVE FINALLY COME CLOSER TOGETHER ON THE
TIMING/DEPTH OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS EARLY NEXT WEEK. QPF POTENTIAL
STILL LOOKS LIGHT OVERALL OUTSIDE THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS
INCLUDING UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN MOST HELPFUL IN RECENT RUNS AS THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS WAVERED IN THEIR FORECASTS. THE 18Z/15 GEFS
MEAN AND 12Z/15 ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THOUGH ABOUT TUE/D6 THOUGH THE ECENS MEAN WAS MORE ROBUST WITH ITS
PMSL FIELD. GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL AGAIN LEAN ON THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE BASE OF THE FORECAST. THE 18-12Z GFS
WAS TOO QUICK WITH A SFC LOW THROUGH THE LAKES ON SAT/D3 BUT EVEN
THE ECMWF SEEMED A BIT TOO QUICK... SO A 50/50
ENSEMBLE/DETERMINISTIC BLEND WORKED WELL IN LIGHT OF HPC
CONTINUITY. BY MON/D5 THE NORTHERN ENERGY SHOULD FORM AN ARCTIC
FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THAT SHOULD
PUSH STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE.
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST AND POSSIBLY SPIN UP A STRONGER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BUT THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST COAST UP TO NOVA SCOTIA.

THE WEST WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE THE INVERSION OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THERE BUT OTHERWISE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL AWAY FROM THE GREAT BASIN/WESTERN CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOULD HOLD THE ARCTIC AIR TO ITS EAST GIVEN
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY OUT OF CANADA.


FRACASSO

As promised...a look at Visible Imagery clearly show the amount of snow cover from the Cascades down to the Sierra Nevada Range in CA on E into UT/NV into AZ and NM and on N in the Rocky Mountain States. Further N across the Northern Plain and into Western and Southern Canada there is a lot of snow on the ground. This is much different than what we saw last winter when there wasn't much in the way of snow cover anywhere and one reason why we were so warm across much of North America last winter.

cristina99 wrote:what about towards the end of the month? Into February? This can't be all there is - but I agree - everything has to be just right. Sometimes I dislike living so close to the gulf. If I had the means I'd move further north. Come on, there has to be more!

Like srain said already........it's not over just taking a break, but it's my hope it takes such a long break it forgets to come back and we quietly slip into spring.
That would be glorious, yes.

I vote early Spring. My flip flops are feeling neglected.

I understand people hoping for extended periods of frigid cold mixed with sleet and snow, but many in this forum live in southeast Texas. This is a subtropical climate and there's a reason people settled here. Chances are very good you won't get extended periods of frigid cold mixed with sleet and snow. Chances are very good you'll get extended periods of blazing heat mixed with thunderstorms and humidity.
Older I get the more I despise uncomfortably cold weather. I'm much more tolerant of heat than I am cold.
Bring on Spring.

Although it’s a bit cool out, it is great to see the sun for a change. After a couple of days of below normal temps across the region and a couple of chilly nights, a warm up begins for the weekend. While the coldest air will remain to our E next week there are indications that colder air will once again establish across the West into the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain States as we head toward the end of January. The EPO/PNA/AO regime via the Global Ensembles are suggesting after we enjoy a nice break, the pattern may well flip back to one of a colder regime and there indications that the Sub Tropical Jet may well become noisy as we saw during the latter half of December and the first half of January. Enjoy these nice days while we have them. Chances are that it will not be long lived and winter will once again rear is cold and icy head once again before we begin the transition toward a Spring like pattern during the latter half of February.

I also wanted to add that anyone with travel plans tomorrow for the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic up to the NE can probably expect delay. The Winter Storm that we dealt with will be impacting those areas tomorrow with all sort of wintry weather.

Cloud2ground wrote:I understand people hoping for extended periods of frigid cold mixed with sleet and snow, but many in this forum live in southeast Texas. This is a subtropical climate and there's a reason people settled here. Chances are very good you won't get extended periods of frigid cold mixed with sleet and snow. Chances are very good you'll get extended periods of blazing heat mixed with thunderstorms and humidity.
Older I get the more I despise uncomfortably cold weather. I'm much more tolerant of heat than I am cold.
Bring on Spring.

Understand that we along the Gulf Coast look at these rare winter events as a novelty. There are only about three months out of the year where we have a chance to see anything wintery. So it's the pure fun and enjoyment of seeing somethine rare down here.

The stifling heat and suffocating humidity are with us most of the year. Personally I hate it, but, living down here, you get used to it. So when we have a chance to see some wintery precip this far south, it's a real treat that a lot of us enjoy watching and hoping for.

Now, back to your regularly scheduled programming......

harpman wrote: Understand that we along the Gulf Coast look at these rare winter events as a novelty. There are only about three months out of the year where we have a chance to see anything wintery. So it's the pure fun and enjoyment of seeing somethine rare down here.

The stifling heat and suffocating humidity are with us most of the year. Personally I hate it, but, living down here, you get used to it. So when we have a chance to see some wintery precip this far south, it's a real treat that a lot of us enjoy watching and hoping for.

Now, back to your regularly scheduled programming......

I understand completely having grown up here in southeast Texas and spending over forty years basically in the N/W Galveston County/Clear Lake area. In all likelihood we'll get some cold, but snow is extremely rare. Most often we'll get that bitter cold, and if some moisture presents itself at the same time, it will be freezing rain. The February 2011 event should have helped us all temper our excitement when the prospects of snow look promising.
But, I'm like Ed when it comes to cold; cold without snow or sleet is just miserable.

I agree, cold without precip is just no fun and just miserable.

All models continue to agree in taking next week's Arctic air ESE-SE across the Great Lakes/Midwest and NE U.S. vs. south to Texas. Next week should be a good bit warmer (or less freezing cold) than this week has been.

Heaviest frost of the season this morning. Frost is all the way to ground leave. The roof and car tops are covered with heavy frost. My English Ivy that covers my front beds and had grown up my Post Oak tree are frost burned all the way to ground level. C'est la vie

Felt great this morning... 24 degrees at my house in Central Montgomery County.