Wx Infinity Forums

Music to my ears - I'm ready for spring! I just hope we don't go to zonal and capped for the next 6 months!

I agree with Srain ( and I will admit, I have no clue about anything...LOL), but dadgum the models are not doing well with this at all.

Give us our 6 weeks of Winter before we go into the 6-7 month Hell known as late Spring/Summer/Early Fall in Houston. Geez.

Once it starts warming up, I'm outta here until next Winter.... or if a Hurricane comes sniffing for a Texas landfall in the Gulf.

so are you saying the rumor of an arctic blast and more cold air is slowly fizzling? Although I don't quite have enough sweaters for prolonged cold, I agree with other user who wants cold instead of heat or something like that. I want as much cold as we can get because starting as early as March, the heat returns. Then we're into the 100 degree days without rain.

I am with Ed on this one. I will be fine if we start warming up after this. Warmer coastal waters will keep to maintain a severe weather season down here. Unfortunately we still have February to deal with and that could be an interesting one.

Andrew wrote:I am with Ed on this one. I will be fine if we start warming up after this. Warmer coastal waters will keep to maintain a severe weather season down here. Unfortunately we still have February to deal with and that could be an interesting one.

Oh do tell....if you can.....LOL

Shockingly, I find myself agreeing with Ed and Wxman57 also. Healthy, warm onshore flow means an active severe weather season this spring. An active severe weather season this spring for south central and southeast Texas means rainfall (which we are desperate for over here). If we can't pull a real winter weather event or two out of this pattern, who the heck needs drizzle and 35 degrees!

February does produce interesting weather often, but I too would enjoy at least the sun to come out for awhile!:)

I agree...get this cold drizzly crap out of here. Also and active spring with good rains could get us through a dry summer if we have one. A non active spring means a scorched landscape without the help of a tropical system.

Well the 12Z Euro certainly is not in agreement with the GFS. Cold air dumps into the Plains and Great Lakes Monday/Tuesday then briefly gives us a cloudy cool return flow for a day or two then dumps more colder air into the Region late next week. I will add the Euro is showing a 1055mb+ Arctic High Pressure sliding S into the Plains. Past experience tells us that if we see such a strong Arctic High with its origin in Western Siberia, the very dense cold air just doesn't make a right hand turn at the Texas/Oklahoma Border. That dense air always sinks straight S right of the lee side of the Rockies. It is still my hunch that the models are not handling such a dense cold air mass very well at all. We will see.

168 Hour: 240 Hour:

If I am reading these maps right - like the one above - the blue is the cold air. Please correct me if I am wrong - I usually just read the intersting parts on this forum - still trying to learn how to read the messages on here. Thanks.

cristina99, that is correct. The darker the blue, the colder the air basically.

Light sleet/light rain mix in NW Harris County at this time.

srain, I'm looking at the 2m temps in the 12Z Euro for next week and they're quite a bit warmer than previous runs - much closer to the GFS. Previously, it had temps in Houston around 28-29 next Wed. Now it has temps above freezing in Houston next week with the southern extent of 32F only as far south as Huntsville. The Euro is sharper with the 500mb trof dropping through the Great Lakes next week, but the flow/heights across Texas are very similar to the GFS. All indications are that next week will not be as cold as this week has been.

wxman57 wrote:srain, I'm looking at the 2m temps in the 12Z Euro for next week and they're quite a bit warmer than previous runs - much closer to the GFS. Previously, it had temps in Houston around 28-29 next Wed. Now it has temps above freezing in Houston next week with the southern extent of 32F only as far south as Huntsville. The Euro is sharper with the 500mb trof dropping through the Great Lakes next week, but the flow/heights across Texas are very similar to the GFS. All indications are that next week will not be as cold as this week has been.

Alright ... now, take off your model reading cap and put on your sensible meteorology cap ... you know, the one you wear when you consider how sensible weather in Texas plays out when a 1048mb high (as progged by the 12z Euro op run) slides into Montana. Do you honestly think that kind of high, bringing down that kind of airmass, won't at least put temps in SE Texas at or below freezing?!

As I have told srain, at the very least ... even with a somewhat unfavorable 500mb flow ... a shallow Arctic airmass comes into Texas if indeed at 1048mb high slides south into Montana early next week. I've seen in happen over and over and over again.

I know that even with completely "unfavorable" (SW winds aloft) upper-level flow, Arctic air can plunge straight south from Montana to Texas with no difficulty. There is uncertainty as to the "character" of the airmass that will move out of Canada next week. It could be that with more favorable (i.e., NW) flow aloft that the core of cold air may go SE vs. south to Texas. I do agree we may have a fair chance of seeing another freeze here next Wednesday. But I'm not seeing mid to low 20s at IAH.

Look for lots of low clouds and sea fog until we can get those nearshore water temps up to about 70. They are currently running in the low to mid 50's.

looks like christmas 2004

We folks along Coastal Texas into Louisiana may need to keep an eye to our SW. Another upper air disturbance is riding NE out of Mexico and just might squeeze out some moisture this evening into the overnight hours before the down glide becomes established. We will see.

What,s up? I see that srain's post at 4:39 is the last comment. There must be something wrong with my computer. Is there not anything interesting to discuss?