000
FXUS64 KHGX 090549
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1149 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2013
.AVIATION...
THIS WET MESSY PATTERN OVER SE TX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED A BIT INLAND AND
CURRENTLY SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG I-10. LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING/
PERSISTING ACROSS THE SITES AND HAVE TWEAKED GOING TAFS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CURRENT TRENDS. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2013/
LARGE CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA OFFSHORE EARLIER TODAY ESSENTIALLY
SHUT DOWN A GOOD BIT OF WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTN HOURS. THAT LARGE
MCS HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST AND SHOULDN`T BE MUCH OF A FACTOR
ANY LONGER. IN ADDITION...UPPER FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
DIFFLUENT - AND NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED (VS SW EARLIER TODAY) SO
PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP OFFSHORE SHOULD HAVE MUCH BETTER CHANCES
OF CONTINUING & TRAINING INLAND. RADAR HAS BEGUN TO REIGNITE UP
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR THANKS TO ALL OF THE ABOVE.
IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS A LLVL CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE
COAST. THIS SHOULD BE WHERE THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SFC BASED STORMS/SPINNERS.
WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH NW PARTS LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME TRAINING.
OVERALL...BELIEVE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD NOT HAVE
MANY FLOOD PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT AND CAN HANDLE A DECENT AMOUNT MORE
OF PRECIP. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WHERE ANY
HEAVIER RAIN OCCURS. PROBLEMS WILL ARISE WHERE AND IF CONSISTENT
TRAINING HEAVIER BANDS SET UP.
THINK THE HIGHEST RISK OF BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND SVR WX WILL
OCCUR DURING THE DAY WED AS WARM FRONT MOVES FURTHER INLAND AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. GROUND WILL BE MORE SATURATED. AND EXPECT
A BROAD LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
COMBINATION OF WET GROUND...DEAD DROUGHT TREES AND WINDS COULD
VERY WELL BE AN ISSUE.
OVERALL...NOT VERY MANY CHANGES TO THE FCST THINKING OTHER THAN
TO TWEAK GRIDS CLOSER TO SHORT TERM TRENDS. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 62 57 65 49 66 / 100 100 100 40 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 64 62 68 53 69 / 100 100 100 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 65 62 68 56 67 / 100 100 100 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
60 NM.
&&
$$
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
I expected the storms to come from the west. It could be here as early as 2:00 AM or by morning rush hour. This looks to be a day event.