SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/08/13 1626Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES E 1615Z GG/LP
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LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT... MOD/HVY RAIN EVENT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
UL LOW AND STG WRAP AROUND JET NOSING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTING NEW
CONVECTIVE GROWTH IN CENTRAL TEXAS. RECENT IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS CLOUD
TOP COOLING IN THE VIC OF REAL, BANDERA, AND KERR COUNTIES LOCATED ALONG
WHAT APPEARS IN WV TO BE A MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE/LINE EXTENDING
SW TO NE FROM MEXICO THRU SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND IS HAS ACTED AS A
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WITHIN THE DRY SLOT. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A 1.25"-1.5" PW MOISTURE PLUME PER SATELLITE BLENDED TPW BEING FEED
BY 30-40 KT SLY LLJ. GIVEN CLD TOP TEMPS AND PWS RAIN RATES COULD BE
ESTIMATED A BIT HIGHER BUT DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS LOWERS RATES TO AROUND
1"/HR...AND GIVEN CELL MOTIONS TOTALS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN 1"
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH RATES OF 1.5-2.0"/HR
IS MOVING ACROSS THE TX/LA BOARDER SUPPORTED BY SFC MST CONVERGENCE FROM
ELY AND SELY FLOW ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER ITS MOVEMENT IS BEGINNING
TO OUTRUN UL SUPPORT AND CLDS HAVE BEGUN TO GLACIATE IN VISIBLE/WARM
IN IR. STILL BLENDED TPW SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE
MEXICAN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH VALUES STARTING TO REACH
1.75" AND GREATER NEAR BRO. HEIGHT FALLS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF IN MEXICO CONTINUE TO INCREASE SFC EASTERLIES ACROSS
LAND LENDING TO EXCELLENT SFC/LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR NEW
CONVECTION FOCUSED AT THE AXIS OF THE TPW PLUME JUST OFF BRO TO CRP BUT
ALSO WEAKLY ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TX COAST INTO LA.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1630-0000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK... ACROSS S CENT TX... A LOBE OF VORTICITY IS CURRENTLY
BEING SHED FROM THE MAIN UL ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF TX... IN A FEW
HOURS... THIS SUPPORT CONTINUES TO ROTATES OUT AND ADD TO INSTABILITY
ALOFT WITH SOME CAA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED ML CONVERGENCE LINE LIKELY LEADING TO UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE GROWTH POTENTIALLY ORIENTING ALONG THE CELL MOTION FOR
SOME TRAINING LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL EWX CWA.... THIS COULD
LEAD TO A NARROW SWATH OF HIGH TOTALS OF 2-3" POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED FF
THREAT.... HOWEVER ONE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR
BRO WILL ROB BEST MST CONVERGENCE.
FURTHER SOUTH/EAST...EXPECT SFC LOW TO DEEPEN ALONG TX COAST WITH
WARM/STNY FRONT TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH COLD DEEP CONVECTION
ONLY LIFTING SLIGHTLY INTO COASTAL COUNTIES OF TX FROM CRP TO HOU.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING AND WITH DEEPER MST
PROFILE...MUCH MORE PROLIFIC WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 1.5" LIKELY AND
ISOALTED 3-4" TOTALS POSSIBLE.
January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month
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Portastorm
- Posts: 800
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:04 pm
- Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
- Contact:
Paul may still desire some further interpretation after viewing that video. In a related story, someone was asking where AZ was. I've often wondered what someone who types in all caps sounds like in person.redneckweather wrote:Dear Paul, you were wanting a VERY detailed explanation on what is going to happen today and into tomorrow. This guy sums everything up perfectly for you so you don't have to ask anymore questions. Your welcome.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQf1RQA-GjA
<cough>
GOOD LUCK
echo tops from NMQ: http://nmq.ou.edu/
TCEQ Texas large view http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public ... atest.jpeg
TCEQ Texas large view http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public ... atest.jpeg
Thats a disturbance forming. The deeper gulf moisture and the warm front are still down in S TX. Once both of those surge northward, Game time.
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cristina99
- Posts: 125
- Joined: Fri Jan 21, 2011 2:33 pm
- Location: The Woodlands / Spring / Conroe
- Contact:
Let's be careful out there! I know once I get home I am going to be on storm watch - and reading this forum. Think I'll just hunker down in bed with my lap top! 
Once this is passed, can we talk about the impending / rumored winter weather coming our way? Or not coming our way. Need to get my soups ready!
Once this is passed, can we talk about the impending / rumored winter weather coming our way? Or not coming our way. Need to get my soups ready!
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Andrew
- Site Admin
- Posts: 3440
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- Location: North-West Houston
- Contact:
12z gfs keeps the stronger storms off the coast while the Canadian brings it up central Texas. At this point it is anybody's game but with the recent trends I would tend to side with the Canadian a little on this one. Also for anyone interested the longer range gets interesting....
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
It has been raining here, with varying intensity, since about midnight. I was kind of surprised that the rain started so early, last night/this morning. Just had a pretty heavy band move through, with some thunder.
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vci_guy2003
- Posts: 203
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:04 am
- Contact:
What do longer range models show?
Seems the stronger stuff is "currently" staying out in the GOM.
Just got a notification, on Facebook, that part of Bearkat Blvd, in Huntsville is closed due to flooding. And so the fun begins...
Don't let you guards down yet. I expect the rain to be a evening to night event.
I'm not a Pro Met, just a lurker so I obbviously dont understand a lot of the jargon but I do understand pictures. It looks like the big rain producer for today didn't come far enough inland to be a flood event? If I understand correctly, there is more of the same tonight and tomorrow? I work in the Galleria area. Its been mostly a drizzle here and there since this morning. I guess what im asking is, is this it?
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4489
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Jabcwb2, this is the latest from Jeff Linder. He is a pro met from the Harris County Department of Emergency Management. As you see, there is more coming.
Latest update from Jeff Lindner:
Quote:
Active warm front over the Gulf of Mexico is slowly lifting toward the coastal counties early this afternoon. Surface moisture convergence is being maximized in the area from west of Corpus Christi to near Galveston and expect this to push inland about 20-30 miles during the afternoon hours as the warm front slowly moves northward. Deep convective complex that has formed near the warm from over the NW Gulf has been “robbing” best moisture inflow for the past few hours, but this complex is moving deeper into the Gulf allowing an influx of rich tropical air along the Mexican coast to surge northward to Matagorda Bay.
With the warm front impinging on the coast counties and increasing upper level divergence increasing this afternoon expect a gradual increase in thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall to fill in from Corpus to Bay City to Baytown and shift slowly northward this evening and overnight. Very heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches per hour can be expected with this activity.
While cell motions are rapid to the northeast, the cells have been showing a tendency to align and training in SW to NE bands over the region and this type of training will limit the breaks between cells reduce the amount of time for storm water to run-off and increasing the flooding threat.
Based on the latest model, RFC, and HPC rainfall forecast I see no reason to deviate from the rainfall forecast at this time with widespread 2-4 inches still likely with isolated amounts to 7 inches.
Will also need to keep an eye on any cell rotation near/along the warm front late this afternoon and evening as a few isolated tornadoes may be possible.
Latest update from Jeff Lindner:
Quote:
Active warm front over the Gulf of Mexico is slowly lifting toward the coastal counties early this afternoon. Surface moisture convergence is being maximized in the area from west of Corpus Christi to near Galveston and expect this to push inland about 20-30 miles during the afternoon hours as the warm front slowly moves northward. Deep convective complex that has formed near the warm from over the NW Gulf has been “robbing” best moisture inflow for the past few hours, but this complex is moving deeper into the Gulf allowing an influx of rich tropical air along the Mexican coast to surge northward to Matagorda Bay.
With the warm front impinging on the coast counties and increasing upper level divergence increasing this afternoon expect a gradual increase in thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall to fill in from Corpus to Bay City to Baytown and shift slowly northward this evening and overnight. Very heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches per hour can be expected with this activity.
While cell motions are rapid to the northeast, the cells have been showing a tendency to align and training in SW to NE bands over the region and this type of training will limit the breaks between cells reduce the amount of time for storm water to run-off and increasing the flooding threat.
Based on the latest model, RFC, and HPC rainfall forecast I see no reason to deviate from the rainfall forecast at this time with widespread 2-4 inches still likely with isolated amounts to 7 inches.
Will also need to keep an eye on any cell rotation near/along the warm front late this afternoon and evening as a few isolated tornadoes may be possible.
HPC Excessive Rainfall Forecast
issued 1947Z Tues http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif
adding discussion:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 PM EST TUE JAN 08 2013
...VALID 18Z TUE JAN 08 2013 - 00Z THU JAN 10 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NNW TVR 30 WNW HEZ 15 ESE CWF 25 SSW KVBS 25 WNW KEMK
40 SSE KBBF KMIU 30 SE NQI NQI 30 NNW RBO SSF 15 NNE BMQ
15 NW F18 25 NE TKI 10 S PRX 25 SSW TXK 25 SW ELD 25 NNW TVR.
MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE HYI PWG 15 SE JWY 15 SSW 3T1 20 NNE GGG 25 NW IER
10 SE IER 15 W AEX 10 NNE CWF 25 SW KVBS 40 ENE KGVX 15 SSE KGVX
35 SSW KGVX 25 E KRP 30 WSW VCT 45 W VCT 15 NE HYI.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE JAS 25 ENE JAS 30 SW DRI 15 ESE BPT
20 ESE GLS 15 NW KGVX 15 NNE KBQX 20 NW LBX 15 WNW SGR 20 SE 11R
10 ENE CXO 10 ENE LFK 35 NNE JAS.
...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LWR MS VLY...
VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS ARE STILL ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THANKS TO VERY SLOW
MOVING UPR LOW EJECTING EWD FROM NRN MEX TOWARD SRN TX THIS PD.
DESPITE ALMOST UNIFORM AGREEMENT THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL DVLPG
ACRS THIS REGION..CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MODEL RUNS
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINS. SEE QPFPFD FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. MANUAL QPF GENLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF UKMET/00Z EC HEIGHT
FIELDS WITH SOMEWHAT HIER EMPHASIS ON THE 00Z WRF ARW FOR HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS AHEAD OF ASSOCD SFC LOW THAT WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NWD FROM SRN TX ON WED. EARLY IN THE FCST..STG CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG THE UPR TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH WARM
SECTOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TRAINING NEWD IN PREVIALING 7H/5H FLOW
INTO THE REGION THRU TUES EVENING. CONTINUED SLOW BACKING OF
MID/UPR FLOW WILL ALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SPREAD N OF THE
WARM FRONT ACRS MUCH OF ERN TX THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PD AND AS
MAIN HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO PUSH EWD ACRS TX..EXPECT STG CONVECTION
TO DVLP IN N/S BAND ALONG INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INITIALLY OVER
CNTL TX..THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD TOWARD DEEPER MSTR AXIS
FURTHER E DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BY WED...DEEP
LAYERED SLY FLOW WITH N/S AXIS OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCH PWS AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A STG N/S BAND OF
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL PUSH EWD ACRS ERN TX TOWARD
LA LATE IN THE DAY. HEAVIEST RAINS ARE LIKELY INVOF THIS LINE AND
NWD MOVING WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE BEST COMBO OF
INSTABILITY..MSTR AND FRONTAL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE.
LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE PSBL ACRS
PARTS OF ERN TX WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RUNOFF ISSUES.
SULLIVAN
issued 1947Z Tues http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif
adding discussion:
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 PM EST TUE JAN 08 2013
...VALID 18Z TUE JAN 08 2013 - 00Z THU JAN 10 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NNW TVR 30 WNW HEZ 15 ESE CWF 25 SSW KVBS 25 WNW KEMK
40 SSE KBBF KMIU 30 SE NQI NQI 30 NNW RBO SSF 15 NNE BMQ
15 NW F18 25 NE TKI 10 S PRX 25 SSW TXK 25 SW ELD 25 NNW TVR.
MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NE HYI PWG 15 SE JWY 15 SSW 3T1 20 NNE GGG 25 NW IER
10 SE IER 15 W AEX 10 NNE CWF 25 SW KVBS 40 ENE KGVX 15 SSE KGVX
35 SSW KGVX 25 E KRP 30 WSW VCT 45 W VCT 15 NE HYI.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE JAS 25 ENE JAS 30 SW DRI 15 ESE BPT
20 ESE GLS 15 NW KGVX 15 NNE KBQX 20 NW LBX 15 WNW SGR 20 SE 11R
10 ENE CXO 10 ENE LFK 35 NNE JAS.
...SRN PLAINS INTO THE LWR MS VLY...
VERY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS ARE STILL ON TAP FOR MUCH OF THE SRN
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY THANKS TO VERY SLOW
MOVING UPR LOW EJECTING EWD FROM NRN MEX TOWARD SRN TX THIS PD.
DESPITE ALMOST UNIFORM AGREEMENT THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL DVLPG
ACRS THIS REGION..CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MODEL RUNS
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINS. SEE QPFPFD FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. MANUAL QPF GENLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF UKMET/00Z EC HEIGHT
FIELDS WITH SOMEWHAT HIER EMPHASIS ON THE 00Z WRF ARW FOR HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE AMOUNTS AHEAD OF ASSOCD SFC LOW THAT WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NWD FROM SRN TX ON WED. EARLY IN THE FCST..STG CONVECTIVE DVLPMENT
IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG THE UPR TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH WARM
SECTOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TRAINING NEWD IN PREVIALING 7H/5H FLOW
INTO THE REGION THRU TUES EVENING. CONTINUED SLOW BACKING OF
MID/UPR FLOW WILL ALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SPREAD N OF THE
WARM FRONT ACRS MUCH OF ERN TX THRU THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PD AND AS
MAIN HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO PUSH EWD ACRS TX..EXPECT STG CONVECTION
TO DVLP IN N/S BAND ALONG INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INITIALLY OVER
CNTL TX..THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD TOWARD DEEPER MSTR AXIS
FURTHER E DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BY WED...DEEP
LAYERED SLY FLOW WITH N/S AXIS OF GREATER THAN 1.5 INCH PWS AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A STG N/S BAND OF
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL PUSH EWD ACRS ERN TX TOWARD
LA LATE IN THE DAY. HEAVIEST RAINS ARE LIKELY INVOF THIS LINE AND
NWD MOVING WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE BEST COMBO OF
INSTABILITY..MSTR AND FRONTAL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE.
LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WILL BE PSBL ACRS
PARTS OF ERN TX WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RUNOFF ISSUES.
SULLIVAN
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wxman57
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 2621
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- Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
- Contact:
Was locked out past day as I'm at the AMS meeting in Austin on my ipad. All is well now. Heaviest rain in Houston may be tomorrow. I will be meeting Portastorm for lunch tomorrow. I don't like the 384hr GFS.
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vci_guy2003
- Posts: 203
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 4:04 am
- Contact:
What does the 384 hr GFS show?
At 384 hrs. it doesn't matter.