Wx Infinity Forums

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Yeah, last Winter was so boring that the January 9th episode made me excited.

Right now, with the prospects of some big time cold, severe weather just doesn't interest me. I can see warmth and severe weather in Houston any month of the year. I have a small window for cold and potential frozen precip.

I wouldn't go that far. You *could* see severe weather anytime of the year, but the last few years have been pretty uneventful, and I see little that promises snow the next two weeks, which is the only time cold weather is worth it.

That's exactly what I meant. In any given month, we can see Severe weather in Houston. We can only see snow/ice in a 8-10 week window. IMO, Winter Weather (especially wicked Winter Weather) is more exciting than Severe Weather.... again, that's just my opinion.

I'm more comfortable sitting on my porch in 30 degree weather than 80-100 degree weather, therefore I love Winter and its prospects for colder temperatures. Summers around here need to go die a fiery hellish death.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Yeah, last Winter was so boring that the January 9th episode made me excited.

Right now, with the prospects of some big time cold, severe weather just doesn't interest me. I can see warmth and severe weather in Houston any month of the year. I have a small window for cold and potential frozen precip.

I wouldn't go that far. You *could* see severe weather anytime of the year, but the last few years have been pretty uneventful, and I see little that promises snow the next two weeks, which is the only time cold weather is worth it.

That's exactly what I meant. In any given month, we can see Severe weather in Houston. We can only see snow/ice in a 8-10 week window. IMO, Winter Weather (especially wicked Winter Weather) is more exciting than Severe Weather.... again, that's just my opinion.

I'm more comfortable sitting on my porch in 30 degree weather than 80-100 degree weather, therefore I love Winter and its prospects for colder temperatures. Summers around here need to go die a fiery hellish death.

"Like"

Well, we will just have to disagree. I ran all the time in 15-20 degree weather in Ohio and loved it. I run much further in 20-40 degree weather than I can in 70-90 degree weather.

HGX latest web briefing, very well done & easy to understand

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=briefing

This week could be very interesting and possibly be talked about for years to come. I would not be surprised if there is widespread flooding. I see this as a more of a flood event than tornado event. However, I cannot rule out tornadoes.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...

BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...

GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...

MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...

WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON. * FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING * RAIN IS EXPECTED TO START EARLY TUESDAY NEAR THE COAST AND THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL REGION LATE TUESDAY AND WILL HELP TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS. * GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THE RAINFALL STREET FLOODING WILL BECOME MORE COMMON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WORSEN WEDNESDAY MORNING. TRAVEL MAY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. MAINSTEM RIVER AND BAYOU FLOODING MAY BECOME INVOLVED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGE AREAL EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL AND THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE GROUND TO QUICKLY SATURATE AND RAIN TO RUNOFF.

I guess we all have our personal preferences with regard to weather. That's why we're here in the first place

I lived in Dallas for a number of years. Went to college out in Lubbock. And I'll freely admit - back in those days, I was like a little kid in a candy store with the slightest hint of wintry precipitation or extreme cold. The more extreme, the better. I wanted 1899 all over again, and Bastardi was my hero (he predicted it most years, though it never happened). But back in those days, I wasn't paying a mortgage or had any real responsibilities other than to make good grades. I do remember cursing the cold wind in Lubbock one time when my car wouldn't start because the battery froze-up plus had a flat to change in some ridiculous wind chill, but that's about it.

Then I moved here in 2005 and bought a house. I'm into tropical gardening and the like - what those on other forums refer to as "zone pushers". (Side note - I spent my childhood in Florida, so moving to Houston gave me another opportunity to experience some tropical foliage again). I was very fortunate (or cursed hehe) to inherit a back yard with a lot of zone 9-10 palms and plants. So now, my perspective has changed. The thought of a hard freeze, even a killing frost, sorta ruins my day. I have a lot of maintenance to do around the garden to save what I can. And wow, the first 4 or 5 years were nothing compared to the last 2 or 3. I would *hate* to see us drop into the teens again.

Plus - I run too. I just can't handle running if it's below about 65-ish. My lungs hurt, my ears hurt, my nose runs...I'm just miserable out in the cold. I'll take a hot & humid July-like day to sweat it out & jump in the pool any day of the week, any season of the year.

I do love the snow, I just can't stand the cold. That's why I went to Angel Fire last year And if it weren't for the family ties, cost of living, and booming economy, I'd probably move to Naples or Key West.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Curveball, HGX with the FFW w/ PM issuance, not EWX...

What does this mean?

Dear Jeff:

What is HGX talking about here?

MODELS DIVERGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE WITH
HIGH RAIN CHANCES BUT THE TEXAS TECH 3 KM WRF AND THE NAM FOCUS
MORE OF THE PRECIP OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH LESS ACTIVITY OVER SE
TEXAS. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS...
SLOWER CANADIAN WITH THE ECMWF KIND OF IN BETWEEN. THE 00Z GFS IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DRY SLOTTING THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTN
ENDING THE PRECIP MUCH SOONER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE NAM NEVER
BRINGS THE PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE BUT THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WOULD SUGGEST STRONG
DIVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE. WISH THE MODELS WERE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES THAT SE TX COULD GET DRY SLOTTED BY 18Z IF THE 00Z
GFS IS CORRECT. THAT SAID...THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND LEAN TOWARD
THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL. MODEL QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT 3
TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WILL FALL OVER MUCH OF SE TX BETWEEN 18Z
(NOON) TUESDAY AND 00Z (6 PM) THURSDAY. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED SE TX IN
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. RAIN
SHOULD END WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA.

You say you're not overly confident about a severe threat but on the other hand believe these storms likely. Is this so?

Dear Paul, I will answer for Jeff. It's going to possibly rain like hell with possible severe storms. Now give it a rest.

Hi, Paul Robison.

Your questions suggest you are not from this area. Are you possibly from Arizona?

1. Am from West Virginia, the mountain state.

2. I apologize for my curiosity. I will not come back to this forum. Goodbye!

biggerbyte wrote:Hi, Paul Robison.

Your questions suggest you are not from this area. Are you possibly from Arizona?

Gold

Paul Robison wrote:1. Am from West Virginia, the mountain state.

2. I apologize for my curiosity. I will not come back to this forum. Goodbye!

You are welcome here as far as I am concerned. If you are offended by anyone, there is always the ignore feature.

Rip76 wrote:

biggerbyte wrote:Hi, Paul Robison.

Your questions suggest you are not from this area. Are you possibly from Arizona?

Gold

You are a brilliant and observant individual, grasshopper.

It's been made very clear what the threats are, heavy rain and isolated severe storms. A 2 day event.

I'm not offended in the least Paul. It just sounds like a broken record around here with everyone having to REPEAT themselves to you. Maybe you get a kick out of it, I don't know. Carry on if you want then.

2 to 7 inches of rain is pretty serious. Unfortunately, this event is still unfolding, even at this hour. If your area is under the flash flood watch, I urge everyone to pay attention to the forecast for your particular county from Tuesday noon through Wednesday night. Instability will be limited, so severe storms will be a secondary concern.

I was seeing the AZ connection myself. Where has he been, by the way?

I think this event - and whatever may come in the next few weeks - is something to talk about. Thankfully I found someone to ride to work with so I guess we can be on pins and needles together. Let's get through tomorrow and Wednesday safely then we can talk about the frigid winter weather possibly headed our way.