January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

[gocuse22]

Whens the worst suppose to get through the Houston area? Should the rain be gone by 1pm Wednesday

[Belmer]

Whens the worst suppose to get through the Houston area? Should the rain be gone by 1pm Wednesday

1:00? Very unlikely. The main line of storms won't probably push through yet at that time.
Everything should be out of here between 7-10pm Wednesday evening.

[gocuse22]

I was thinking the main line will push through around 11am-1pm Wednesday

[Belmer]

I was thinking the main line will push through around 11am-1pm Wednesday

I mean a few computer models may show different timing, but the ones I have seen show this thing exiting the greater Houston area in the late afternoon/early evening on Wednesday.
Also, had a chance to watch the 10pm news this evening with David and ch. 13 with Tim and both of there computer models were between 5-8pm. Just really depends if this storm slows down more or pushes through a little faster. Timing seems to be a little difficult to predict right now, we'll really need to watch how it sets up tomorrow and the speed of it to see if the models have been consistent.
Not saying this thing could be out of here by 1-2pm Wednesday, just very unlikely at this time and don't see much support from models that it will get out of our area that soon.

[djjordan]

The biggest time to be watching out for flooding rains and possible severe weather will be Tuesday Night into Wednesday Afternoon. I think the 5pm - 8pm timeframe for things being out of here or winding down sounds about right.

[C2G]

Activity already picking up, especially in south Texas.

[Andrew]

Hey guys great job so far on keeping up with the system and providing thoughtful information. Keep this up especially as we go into today and into the next couple of days. Remember when posting reports please post where you are located (if it is not updated on your profile) and try not to over-exaggerate the situation. One of the biggest draws of this forum is the accurate information we provide and lets continue that. Keep up the good work everyone.

[Katdaddy]

Heavy showers developing N and SW of Houston metro currently. Flash Flood Watch continues as well as a slight chance for severe weather overnight and into Wednesday. Be aware of the weather conditions through out the day which will likely lead to a very messy drive home this evening. Avoid driving through high water if you do not know the depth.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...
SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...AND
WHARTON.

* FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* PERIODS OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP TODAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY MAINLY TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THE RAINFALL EVENT...STREET FLOODING
MAY BECOME COMMON TONIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRAVEL MAY BE
SEVERELY IMPACTED. MAINSTEM RIVER AND BAYOU FLOODING MAY BECOME
INVOLVED LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE LARGE AREAL EXTENT
OF THE RAINFALL AND THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR THE GROUND TO QUICKLY
SATURATE AND RAIN TO RUNOFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

IF POSSIBLE AVOID TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT
DELAYS IF TRAVEL CANNOT BE PUT OFF TO A LATER TIME.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
AS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

[Andrew]

Already starting to see some training in Southern Harris and West of Galveston as storms from the east collide with storms from the west.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Picked up 1.4 inches this morning

[Andrew]

Shifted a little farther north:

SPC AC 081257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2013

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
FEATURES...WILL REMAIN DISPLACED N OF ITS SEASONAL NORM...EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. MEANWHILE...IN THE SRN STREAM...UPR
LOW NOW OVER NW MEXICO/SONORA SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ESE TODAY...AND
MORE EWD TNGT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH NW CHIHUAHUA BY EVE AND THE
BIG BEND REGION EARLY WED...WITH ANY APPRECIABLE CONUS TSTM THREAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD LIKELY BEING CONFINED TO AREAS IN THE ERN AND SRN
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW.

AT LWR LVLS...CSTL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTN ALONG
THE TX GULF CST...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE UPR DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH HI-LVL JET STREAK NOW CROSSING THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD OVERSPREAD CSTL TX
TNGT/EARLY WED...AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR LOW.

...S CNTRL TX E/ENE TO THE E TX GULF CST TODAY/TNGT...
RECENT INCREASE IN TSTMS ALONG THE TX GULF CSTL PLN APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO LOW-LVL UPLIFT/WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG CSTL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. THE INLAND STORMS LIKELY ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THIS AFTN AS N TO NELY LOW-LVL
FLOW/SHALLOW CAA W OF THE BOUNDARY STYMIES WWD ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
ISOLD STORMS MAY...HOWEVER...BECOME NEARLY SFC-BASED JUST OFF THE
MIDDLE AND UPR TX GULF CST THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. ENHANCED
LOW-LVL SHEAR IN THIS REGION...AND THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT DEEP
SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION...MAY YIELD A WATERSPOUT OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...MID-LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...AND DEEP
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTN AS UPR HEIGHT CONTOURS
BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC. THUS...ANY OVERALL SVR RISK WITH THE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK/ISOLD.

OTHER STORMS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF LOOSELY-ORGANIZED SHORT
BAND/SMALL CLUSTERS...SHOULD FORM LATE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT FROM
CNTRL AND S CNTRL PARTS OF TX SSW INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOSTERED BY A COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT LWR-LVL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BENEATH STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT ON LEADING EDGE
OF UPR LOW. AMPLE /40-50 KT/ SSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT PERSISTENT CELLS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. BUT MID-LVL LAPSE
LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONFIGURATION OF
THE UPR LOW...AND CLOUDS LIKELY WILL OFFSET NEAR-SFC
DESTABILIZATION. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SVR
RISK...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SMALL BOWS AND/OR STORM
INTERACTIONS/PRECIP LOADING TO YIELD LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TORNADOES AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS E TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND SRN
TX GULF CST LATER IN THE PERIOD.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 01/08/2013

[unome]

Mesoscale Discussion http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0002.html




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 081302Z - 081430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEAR-SHORE SEVERE/WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR ALONG
THE UPPER TX COAST THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH ANY SUCH POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED /AND OF SHORT DURATION/ THIS MORNING. NO WATCH
IS ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY /SINCE 1230Z/ IS INDICATIVE OF A
STORM WITH UPDRAFT ROTATION JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST...SOUTHWEST
OF THE FREEPORT TX VICINITY AS OF 1250Z. THIS TSTM IS LIKELY
OCCURRING VERY NEAR/PERHAPS JUST A BIT NORTH OF A SHARPENING WARM
FRONT THAT DEMARCATES RELATIVELY COOL CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES
INLAND AND A MORE MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS /60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS PER A LONG-CURVING HODOGRAPH PER
THE HOUSTON WSR-88D VWP...THIS STORM SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
FAVORING THE NEARLY-STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND/OR BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED TOWARD THE COAST. WHILE A NEAR-SHORE SEVERE
POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF
WATERSPOUTS...IT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 01/08/2013


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON 28429543 28919559 29319523 29739486 29779414 29309408
28429543

[Andrew]

Mesoscale analysis matches well with frontogenesis currently as dew points continue to rise.

[tireman4]

This will be an interesting day. Please take precaution out there. Do not be in a rush to get home after you clock out from work. Take your time and you will get there. ( I am telling myself this too...lol)

[unome]

can anyone tell me what the difference is between the stations on these 2 rain mapping sites ?

CoCoRaHS http://data.cocorahs.org/cocorahs/maps/

Harris Co FWS http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

[redneckweather]

Dear Paul, you were wanting a VERY detailed explanation on what is going to happen today and into tomorrow. This guy sums everything up perfectly for you so you don't have to ask anymore questions. Your welcome.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQf1RQA-GjA

[ticka1]

Dear Paul, you were wanting a VERY detailed explanation on what is going to happen today and into tomorrow. This guy sums everything up perfectly for you so you don't have to ask anymore questions. Your welcome.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQf1RQA-GjA

Redneckweather for those of us that can't get youtube at work - what does it say?

[vci_guy2003]

Lmao, that's the most informative video about the weather I have ever seen, thank you son

[vci_guy2003]

Is that guy a member on this forum ? If so, please reveal

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It's a great day. Much needed rain is on the way and the SEC has 7 straight titles with 5 in the Top 10 and 3 in the Top 5.

Party on! Lets bring some Winter Weather to Houston in the next 3 weeks and it will have been a great start to 2013!