January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

[wxman57]

Ed, that lower HRRR forecast is for last Wednesday evening.

[tireman4]

From Runner's World (No, I am not running it. I am a 10ker. I might, and that is a BIG might one day, do a half marathon but it has to be under 1 hour and 30 minutes. LOL)

Sunday's Houston Marathon Could Be a Wet One
Forecast calls for thunderstorms, 60% chance of precipitation.
By
Peter Gambaccini
Published
January 11, 2013

Sunday’s Houston Marathon and Half Marathon could be moist experiences; the Weather Underground forecast for race day, as we write this, calls for thunderstorms and a 60 percent chance of precipitation. Wet weather, even extremely wet weather, won’t change the race organizers’ plans. But if there’s lightning? That could force delays of the 7 a.m. start, or even cancellation.


http://www.runnersworld.com/races/sunda ... be-wet-one

[srainhoutx]

After a cold and somewhat dreary week, the GFS also is suggesting after a brief 'warm up' next weekend, major changes lie ahead as we head to the latter half of January as a very cold regime become entrenched across the Intermountain West and Plains as the long range 00Z Euro suggested. The 'drivers' of this potential Arctic Outbreak involve several features. A -EPO continues and +PNA becomes established. The Major Mid Winter (MMW event) at the stratospheric level is fully underway this morning and a full wind reversal has started from the 'normal' westerly flow across the Arctic to that of an easterly flow. That will disrupt the Polar Vortex and open the door to a cross Polar Flow as the PV attempts to develop near or just S and W of Hudson Bay. The AO is likely to remain very negative in the 3-5 standard deviations below normal allowing the very dense cold air to sink very far south. We will need to monitor the sub tropical jet as well as there are indications that the noisy pattern we have seen will continue allowing for potential moisture to over run that very cold surface air mass setting the stage for some wintry mischief very far south into Texas and the Gulf Coastal States. As always things can change and often do but the indications via CFSv2 and the NAEFS do tend to favor such pattern developing near the 22nd, +/- a couple of days.

[srainhoutx]

We may need to keep an eye on the Tuesday night/early Wednesday time frame for some light freezing drizzle across Central/NE Texas as the positive tilted trough and associated upper air disturbance moves E across Texas.

[Baseballdude2915]

WOW. GFS is showing lows area wide in the upper teens to mid twenties in Galveston for a few days around the 23rd-25th. Highs struggle to reach freezing.

Although this is VERY far out at hours 264-324, its rare we get model runs THIS low in temperatures.

[wxman57]

Looks like the rain will be ending by around sunrise tomorrow. Any thunderstorms look to be during the overnight period. Temperature at race start about 49-50 deg.

[wxman57]

WOW. GFS is showing lows area wide in the upper teens to mid twenties in Galveston for a few days around the 23rd-25th. Highs struggle to reach freezing.

Although this is VERY far out at hours 264-324, its rare we get model runs THIS low in temperatures.

Saw that. Dew point -24F around the 24th-25th. We'll see about that. Euro doesn't go out far enough to show the event.

[tireman4]

Perfect Wxman57. I am hoping to see a 2:05 or 2:06 for the Marathon. On the Half Marathon side, I am hoping for big things from Luke Puskedra. On the Marathon side, look out for Fernado Cabada. Meb Keflizighi had to drop out due to the flu. I think his last big race will be Boston in April. He is almost 38 and we cannot keep riding him on the big stage. Someone has to step up (Ryan Hall...???) I would love for Meb to run Rio, but danged he would be in his forties....

[Kludge]

Perfect Wxman57. I am hoping to see a 2:05 or 2:06 for the Marathon. On the Half Marathon side, I am hoping for big things from Luke Puskedra. On the Marathon side, look out for Fernado Cabada. Meb Keflizighi had to drop out due to the flu. I think his last big race will be Boston in April. He is almost 38 and we cannot keep riding him on the big stage. Someone has to step up (Ryan Hall...???) I would love for Meb to run Rio, but danged he would be in his forties....

Please read more about this in my upcoming book, "Way The Hell Off Topic".

I'm heading over to the Marathon board to see what folks are saying about SSW.

[Ptarmigan]

WOW. GFS is showing lows area wide in the upper teens to mid twenties in Galveston for a few days around the 23rd-25th. Highs struggle to reach freezing.

Although this is VERY far out at hours 264-324, its rare we get model runs THIS low in temperatures.

If true, that would be one of the biggest freezes in a while. It could be challenging February 2011. Could on par with February 1989 freeze.

[vci_guy2003]

Do you mean dec 1989?

[Ptarmigan]

Do you mean dec 1989?

There was a prolonged freeze in early February 1989. It never did not go above freezing for 5 days! The December 1989 freeze was shorter in duration, but deeper as it went down into single digits.

[vci_guy2003]

Wow, I didn't realize there were two deep freezes in a single calendar year.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

89 was just a slutty slutty winter

[weather101]

Wow Joe Bastardi is like cocky sure about this cold and it going deep...I think all parts are in play and it is just a question of when and if its going to be rough or brutal and with the sub-tropical jet remaining very active is going to be like 89 or 85

[harpman]

Wow Joe Bastardi is like cocky sure about this cold and it going deep...I think all parts are in play and it is just a question of when and if its going to be rough or brutal and with the sub-tropical jet remaining very active is going to be like 89 or 85

Can you post what he said?

[weather101]

He has been tweeting and Facebook stuff this evening and today been pretty good stuff on K2 forum...maps ect...will try to copy and past somethings

[weather101]

Easiest way check out Big Joe is just go to Facebook page and like...lot of post

[tireman4]

Perfect Wxman57. I am hoping to see a 2:05 or 2:06 for the Marathon. On the Half Marathon side, I am hoping for big things from Luke Puskedra. On the Marathon side, look out for Fernado Cabada. Meb Keflizighi had to drop out due to the flu. I think his last big race will be Boston in April. He is almost 38 and we cannot keep riding him on the big stage. Someone has to step up (Ryan Hall...???) I would love for Meb to run Rio, but danged he would be in his forties....

Please read more about this in my upcoming book, "Way The Hell Off Topic".

I'm heading over to the Marathon board to see what folks are saying about SSW.

ha ha ha....LOL

[skidog40]

backdraft effect