January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month
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Katdaddy
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A significant weather event to unfold across eastern half of TX during the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. Rapid storm motion, training cells, high rainfall rates, and high shear values will lead to a flash flood and tornado threat. Flash Flood Watches will likely be required Tuesday and SPC has S and SE TX in slight risk area Wednesday. I would not be surprised to see a moderate risk issued in later SPC outlooks. Travel will likely become hazardous Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday. As Srain says, "Stay tuned!"
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srainhoutx
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Looking ahead to late next weekend, the 12Z GFS continues to advertise a very sharp Arctic cold front with a 1050mb High pressure ridge settling S and another attending storm system forming ahead of that front.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:
Increasing potential for widespread heavy rainfall and severe weather Tues-Thurs.
A powerful upper level storm system currently of the California coast will bring high impact weather to much of the state of TX this week.
Discussion:
The potent upper level system will dig SE into N MX over the next 24 hours resulting in the activation of the cold frontal boundary over the western Gulf of Mexico. This front will begin to return northward as a warm front, while above the surface strong moisture advection brings clouds and developing rainfall rapidly northward off the western Gulf by late Monday night. This is in response to deepen moisture profiles and increasing large scale lift. The powerful upper level storm moves into and across TX from the Big Bend area toward NC TX on Tues-Thurs. Surface low pressure will form somewhere over the lower Rio Grande plains and track ENE to NE across SC into EC TX Tues-Wed bringing a warm front northward over nearly all of SE TX. Widespread heavy rainfall is likely with this set up along with sporadic severe weather.
Heavy Rainfall/Flood Threat:
Models and HPC QPF guidance is really pegging the area with some large totals. Moisture level do increase significantly late Monday into Tuesday with PWS approaching 1.6-1.8 inches on Tuesday….which is above +2SD of normal for early January and at or above maximum expected values. This alone raises a warning flag for excessive rainfall, but combine those moisture levels with sustained lift and surface boundaries such as a warm front or slow moving cold front and the potential for flooding rainfall increases. Forecast soundings show a nearly saturated air column by Tuesday afternoon suggesting efficient rainfall processes…or high rainfall rates. Model guidance has been fairly consistent on the placement of amounts of rainfall with this event.
Expect widespread 2-4 inches across much of the area with isolated totals of 4-6 inches possible. Given already moist to wet grounds much of this rainfall is going to run-off. Additionally hourly rainfall rates under the stronger storms may average 1-3 inches suggesting a higher urban flooding threat. With the upper level system slowing as it moves into TX, the threat for training thunderstorms will be increasing and be prolonged from late Tuesday into Wednesday evening. Significant rises on area watersheds appears likely with the amount of rainfall forecasted.
A Flash Flood Watch will likely be required if forecasted rainfall amounts continue to look likely.
Severe Weather:
This system will be highly dynamic with a well defined warm sector spreading inland over the TX coastal plains overspread by strong winds aloft. Track of the surface low will be important for defining where the greatest severe weather threat will reside…best determination at this time is for the surface low to track from near Laredo toward College Station and then toward NW LA with the warm front moving inland across all of SE TX. Elevated instability above the retreating cold dome on Monday night into Tuesday morning will support a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms near the warm front or from north of Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. Low level wind shear will increase on Tuesday as ESE to SE surface winds veer to SW mid level flow and increase with height producing strong low level wind shear. Thunderstorms that develop along the warm front or in the warm sector will have very favorable low level turning in place for updraft rotation. Low level helicity values increase to 300-500 m^2/s^2 on Tuesday supporting tornado production in supercell type thunderstorms. Only limiting factor may be a lack of good instability with forecasted CAPE values of 400-800 J/Kg. The setup is similar to the 1-9-12 tornado outbreak over SE TX, only this event will be much longer in duration and wind fields slightly stronger.
Main severe threat will be damaging winds and tornadoes. Some sort of squall line or MCS feature may eventually develop over the coastal bend into C TX Wed-Wed PM and spread toward the coast ahead of a Pacific cold front/dry line. Area may very well be in for a prolonged (12-24 hour) period of severe weather threat from Tuesday PM to Wed PM.
SPC has already outlooked the SW parts of the area for severe weather on Tuesday and much of the area on Wednesday.
SPC Severe Weather Outlook for Wednesday:
Increasing potential for widespread heavy rainfall and severe weather Tues-Thurs.
A powerful upper level storm system currently of the California coast will bring high impact weather to much of the state of TX this week.
Discussion:
The potent upper level system will dig SE into N MX over the next 24 hours resulting in the activation of the cold frontal boundary over the western Gulf of Mexico. This front will begin to return northward as a warm front, while above the surface strong moisture advection brings clouds and developing rainfall rapidly northward off the western Gulf by late Monday night. This is in response to deepen moisture profiles and increasing large scale lift. The powerful upper level storm moves into and across TX from the Big Bend area toward NC TX on Tues-Thurs. Surface low pressure will form somewhere over the lower Rio Grande plains and track ENE to NE across SC into EC TX Tues-Wed bringing a warm front northward over nearly all of SE TX. Widespread heavy rainfall is likely with this set up along with sporadic severe weather.
Heavy Rainfall/Flood Threat:
Models and HPC QPF guidance is really pegging the area with some large totals. Moisture level do increase significantly late Monday into Tuesday with PWS approaching 1.6-1.8 inches on Tuesday….which is above +2SD of normal for early January and at or above maximum expected values. This alone raises a warning flag for excessive rainfall, but combine those moisture levels with sustained lift and surface boundaries such as a warm front or slow moving cold front and the potential for flooding rainfall increases. Forecast soundings show a nearly saturated air column by Tuesday afternoon suggesting efficient rainfall processes…or high rainfall rates. Model guidance has been fairly consistent on the placement of amounts of rainfall with this event.
Expect widespread 2-4 inches across much of the area with isolated totals of 4-6 inches possible. Given already moist to wet grounds much of this rainfall is going to run-off. Additionally hourly rainfall rates under the stronger storms may average 1-3 inches suggesting a higher urban flooding threat. With the upper level system slowing as it moves into TX, the threat for training thunderstorms will be increasing and be prolonged from late Tuesday into Wednesday evening. Significant rises on area watersheds appears likely with the amount of rainfall forecasted.
A Flash Flood Watch will likely be required if forecasted rainfall amounts continue to look likely.
Severe Weather:
This system will be highly dynamic with a well defined warm sector spreading inland over the TX coastal plains overspread by strong winds aloft. Track of the surface low will be important for defining where the greatest severe weather threat will reside…best determination at this time is for the surface low to track from near Laredo toward College Station and then toward NW LA with the warm front moving inland across all of SE TX. Elevated instability above the retreating cold dome on Monday night into Tuesday morning will support a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms near the warm front or from north of Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. Low level wind shear will increase on Tuesday as ESE to SE surface winds veer to SW mid level flow and increase with height producing strong low level wind shear. Thunderstorms that develop along the warm front or in the warm sector will have very favorable low level turning in place for updraft rotation. Low level helicity values increase to 300-500 m^2/s^2 on Tuesday supporting tornado production in supercell type thunderstorms. Only limiting factor may be a lack of good instability with forecasted CAPE values of 400-800 J/Kg. The setup is similar to the 1-9-12 tornado outbreak over SE TX, only this event will be much longer in duration and wind fields slightly stronger.
Main severe threat will be damaging winds and tornadoes. Some sort of squall line or MCS feature may eventually develop over the coastal bend into C TX Wed-Wed PM and spread toward the coast ahead of a Pacific cold front/dry line. Area may very well be in for a prolonged (12-24 hour) period of severe weather threat from Tuesday PM to Wed PM.
SPC has already outlooked the SW parts of the area for severe weather on Tuesday and much of the area on Wednesday.
SPC Severe Weather Outlook for Wednesday:
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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I'll bet this storm coming up won't be forgotten anytime soon. I'm hoping everyone heeds the warnings coming from the NWS regarding this upcoming event. It's gonna be nasty.
Oh Happy New Year everyone.
Oh Happy New Year everyone.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~
Interesting article from Accuweather about the mid to late January time frame:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... -t/3586088
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... -t/3586088
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Paul Robison
Dear ANYONE! (Mario Gomez included)
I don't know if this is good news but heres the latest from HGX:
MOISTURE RETURN WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS
HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS RUN. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTAL BEND REGION.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH VERY HIGH
SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AS DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GRIDS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE HPC OUTLOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY HAS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT COULD AVERAGE
BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER VALUES...AND A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
EVENT.
Talk to me people! Is this HURRICANE IKE all over again? How many days without electricity should I plan for? Would it be a good idea to get the heck out of Houston? Or is most of the area going to just have to deal with heavy rains?
I don't know if this is good news but heres the latest from HGX:
MOISTURE RETURN WILL STRENGTHEN MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE GFS
HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS RUN. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTAL BEND REGION.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH VERY HIGH
SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AS DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE GRIDS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE HPC OUTLOOK FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY HAS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT COULD AVERAGE
BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER VALUES...AND A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
EVENT.
Talk to me people! Is this HURRICANE IKE all over again? How many days without electricity should I plan for? Would it be a good idea to get the heck out of Houston? Or is most of the area going to just have to deal with heavy rains?
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TexasBreeze
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This is definately NO Ike! That was a widespread large hurricane windstorm. Instability will be lacking and only support isolated severe storms with wind damage here and there possible.
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Paul Robison
This is definately NO Ike! That was a widespread large hurricane windstorm. Instability will be lacking and only support isolated severe storms with wind damage here and there possible.Thank you very much, TexasBreeze but you still haven't haven't explained what HGX means by this:
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE COASTAL BEND REGION.
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH VERY HIGH
SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AS DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT COMBINES WITH PW VALUES
APPROACHING 1.8 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION.
How many days without power should I plan for? Would it be a good idea to pack up my van and get the heck out of Houston?
Last edited by Paul Robison on Sun Jan 06, 2013 7:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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redneckweather
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Paul, that's a loaded question bro. No one knows how long or even if your power will go out. You should always be prepared anyways just in case.
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Paul Robison
Paul, that's a loaded question bro
Okay, okay. I'm sorry 'bout that. But I would still appreciate someone explaining what HGX just said in its latest discussion. Hope that's not a loaded question. I just want to know if it's only going to be MOSTLY a heavy rain event. I'm on the soutwest side of town BTW, so can I expect a tornado? Pick branches outta my front yard?
Okay, okay. I'm sorry 'bout that. But I would still appreciate someone explaining what HGX just said in its latest discussion. Hope that's not a loaded question. I just want to know if it's only going to be MOSTLY a heavy rain event. I'm on the soutwest side of town BTW, so can I expect a tornado? Pick branches outta my front yard?
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Andrew
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More or less the NWS explained that rain chances are going to go up and the threat for Heavy rain and training look like a real threat. As for severe weather, that looks isolated with lack of instability. This is definitely not anywhere near an Ike type of event in any way shape or form. Nor should it be treated that way.Paul Robison wrote:Paul, that's a loaded question bro
Okay, okay. I'm sorry 'bout that. But I would still appreciate someone explaining what HGX just said in its latest discussion. Hope that's not a loaded question.
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Paul Robison
Andrew wrote:
More or less the NWS explained that rain chances are going to go up and the threat for Heavy rain and training look like a real threat. As for severe weather, that looks isolated with lack of instability. This is definitely not anywhere near an Ike type of event in any way shape or form. Nor should it be treated that way.
Yes, but is heavy rain MORE likely than storms with winds in excess of 60mph? (Note: Heavy rain is not as damaging as high winds)
ITEM: Might not be an Ike type of event, but TWC and accuweather are sure making it sound like one. agree or disagree?
More or less the NWS explained that rain chances are going to go up and the threat for Heavy rain and training look like a real threat. As for severe weather, that looks isolated with lack of instability. This is definitely not anywhere near an Ike type of event in any way shape or form. Nor should it be treated that way.
Yes, but is heavy rain MORE likely than storms with winds in excess of 60mph? (Note: Heavy rain is not as damaging as high winds)
ITEM: Might not be an Ike type of event, but TWC and accuweather are sure making it sound like one. agree or disagree?
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weather101
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Hurricane? No...could you have power loss? Yes...how long could that last? No way of knowing...flooding rains possible? Good chance of it...tornado threat? It is Texas...Could their be large hail? With the extensive cold air aloft, yes that could happen as we'll. another 24 hours will tell more of the story, but this time of year I would think the severe threat would be more isolated. It is the flood threat that has me more concerned with the saturated ground here in southeast Texas and the forecasted large area of heavy rain along with tide schedule which can slow evac of run off. My take on the possible cold invasion...seems to be a craps game right nôw, so don't bet the house. But if it did verify and we experience ice than power outages would be massive due to the weakened and dead trees from the recent drought.
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cristina99
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I am worried about this week's storm system. I drive from Spring to 610 and 290 and do not handle driving in heavy rain well...I will admit that. 
I come to this forum to get information - and enjoy most times - especially about impending winter weather as we do not get it on a regular basis. Will the drive be okay Monday morning and evening? I've been reading the posts on here; however, I may have missed some. What is the approximate time line for this storm system to begin?
Also, whoever posted the link from Accuweather about the winter forecast, thanks! Looks like we could be headed for some frigid weather in the next weeks - if we can get through this week.
I come to this forum to get information - and enjoy most times - especially about impending winter weather as we do not get it on a regular basis. Will the drive be okay Monday morning and evening? I've been reading the posts on here; however, I may have missed some. What is the approximate time line for this storm system to begin?Also, whoever posted the link from Accuweather about the winter forecast, thanks! Looks like we could be headed for some frigid weather in the next weeks - if we can get through this week.
Do you have some link or text to support what accuweather or TWC said? This is not even close to an IKE event and as Andrew said, should not even be taken as one. What to expect the next couple of days is a lot of rain. There could be some isolated severe weather around the area, with some cells embedded into the rain, but this won't be a widespread damaging event. If you are under a supercell, sure, you could see some gusty winds, frequent lightning, small hail and a slight possibility of an isolated tornado, but the storm will move on out and most of it will just be a heavy rain event.
This is not an "evacuation" storm. I can't say you will have power the whole time, because it is possible you could lose power for a short time, but no more than a day (if that).
Just be aware of the storm and that this will be a widespread, much needed rain event for much of TX and try not to travel if you don't have to as many streets could be flooded.
Everything should be okay.
If you are wanting to compare it to any "tropical" event, the best I can give you is a minimum tropical depression that will stick around for about two days and move on.
This is not an "evacuation" storm. I can't say you will have power the whole time, because it is possible you could lose power for a short time, but no more than a day (if that).
Just be aware of the storm and that this will be a widespread, much needed rain event for much of TX and try not to travel if you don't have to as many streets could be flooded.
Everything should be okay.
If you are wanting to compare it to any "tropical" event, the best I can give you is a minimum tropical depression that will stick around for about two days and move on.
Blake
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srainhoutx
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Tomorrow should be just fine cristina99. Tuesday into Wednesday would be the time frame to watch, if the threat of heavy rainfall even develops. The storm system could change tracks and end up in New Mexico or the Panhandle lessening any real threat 'locally'. We'll just have to wait and see how thing develop overnight into tomorrow.
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ike? do you mean Allison , she stalled and then it got really wet. she lasted a few days.
cristina99 wrote:I am worried about this week's storm system. I drive from Spring to 610 and 290 and do not handle driving in heavy rain well...I will admit that.
Also, whoever posted the link from Accuweather about the winter forecast, thanks! Looks like we could be headed for some frigid weather in the next weeks - if we can get through this week.
Hi Cristina,
Regarding your question on Monday morning and Monday night, you should be okay! Monday morning expect a few clouds and somewhat cool temperatures. The rain should begin late Monday night and most of the day on Tuesday. Are you having to travel Tuesday and Wednesday as well? If so, just be aware of the latest information whether it is on this forum or watching any of the local mets. There is a high chance of flooding rains Tuesday into Wednesday, but timing seems to be questionable at this time exactly. We should have a lot more information regarding this weeks storm threat tomorrow with the overnight runs tonight.
As far as the main line of storms, there could be many. Hard to say. Again, check with us tomorrow sometime.
But as far as your commute tomorrow, you shouldn't run through any troubles.
Blake
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cristina99
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Thanks for the info! Yes, will be traveling Tuesday and Wednesday - job is at 610 and 290. I'll keep checking in.
High hourly rainfall rates of 1-3 inches will cause flooding of streets and low lying areas Tuesday PM-Wednesday. The Wednesday AM commute could be a real issue. Soggy grounds suggest greater than normal run-off in addition to the time of year which will support rises on areas creek and bayous and possibly are rivers. Widespread nature of the heavy rainfall points to some concern on the main stem rivers by the end of the week.
While January is not usually thought of as a big flood month in this area...on 1-9-12 last year 6.51 inches of rain fell in two hours over southern Harris County...so it can happen especially when moisture levels are as high as forecast and combined with strong winter storm dynamics.
While January is not usually thought of as a big flood month in this area...on 1-9-12 last year 6.51 inches of rain fell in two hours over southern Harris County...so it can happen especially when moisture levels are as high as forecast and combined with strong winter storm dynamics.