January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

[C2G]

Hope the only thing lurking is Spring and 80 degree temps. And maybe a thunderstorm or two.

[wxman57]

Euro is indicating all the cold air hits the NE and eastern U.S. and a pretty good warm-up here by the 28th-29th. Unfortunately, the upper-air pattern isn't favorable for any prolonged warm-up beyond the 29th.

[ticka1]

Just saw the short-term aka next week temps could get into the 70's ...... how long will these temps last?

[mcheer23]

Not long next weekend we should see temps into the mid to upper 50s

[srainhoutx]

Still a lack of continuity via the operational on ensembles guidance. Additional WSR (Winter Storm RECON) continues or the Pacific. Another mission just flew with yet another scheduled for tonight. Expect guidance to remain volatile as the new data is ingested before settling on a sensible solution for the late next weekend/early next week time frame.

Fog will likely be an issue again tomorrow before the first weak front arrives late tomorrow into Tuesday. A stronger front may arrive Thursday into Friday bringing increased rain chances and even an isolated storm or two. Temps will drop back down to below seasonal averages with the stronger front late week for next weekend.

[jasons2k]

70's? Yeah I can get some yard work done. I thought the week of the 21st was supposed to bring the mother of all arctic blasts from China/Siberia?!?!?!...not complaining though hehehe.

[srainhoutx]

I thought the week of the 21st was supposed to bring the mother of all arctic blasts from China/Siberia?!?!?!...not complaining though hehehe.

Another one that reads all those 'hypsters' for ad clicks I see...

[srainhoutx]

The time frame to keep an eye on across our Region is the last days of January. The remains a lot of volatility in the medium range operational and to some extent the ensembles regarding a very potent storm system moving inland along the California Coast. Additional Winter Storm RECON has been tasked as there remain a great deal of uncertainty with the pattern over the Pacific Ocean and just how the approaching storm system will interact with the Artic boundary draped across the Eastern half of the US.

It is also interesting to note that behind that storm system, much colder air is building once again across Alaska and Western Canada. It is much hunch that the storm expected near the 28th, +/- a couple of day will be somewhat similar to what we saw with the Christmas Storm offering wintry mischief in the cold sector and a severe episode potential in the warm sector.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1055 AM EST SUN 20 JANUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JANUARY 2013
         WSPOD NUMBER.....12-051

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
       A. P52/ DROP 10 (22.3N 129.0W)/ 22/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 04WSC TRACK52
       C. 21/1930Z
       D. 19 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED.
       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 22/0600Z

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. P46/ DROP 7/ 23/0000Z
    3. REMARKS: TRACK P52 WITH A CONTROL TIME OF 21/0000Z
       WILL BE FLOWN AS SCHEDULED ON WSPOD 12-050.

The attachment 01202013 12Z GFS 12zgfs500mbvort216.gif is no longer available

[srainhoutx]

The Operational 12Z Euro is also suggesting a potent storm system ejecting out of the Great Basin into the Plains much somewhat similar to what the GFS/GEFS/NAEFS and GGEM have suggested near the January 28th, +/- a day or two.

[Portastorm]

You beat me to the punch, srain!

If today's 12z Euro op run verifies ... we will be entering into a colder and stormier period in about 8-10 days. Could be quite interesting around here.

Meanwhile, I am enjoying this wxman57-like weather today here in Austin. Bright sunshine, blue skies, and temps in the low 70s. Think I'm about to hit the walking trail to work off those Alaska Amber Ales which I enjoyed last night!

[tireman4]

You need to get out and run young Porta. Take in the fresh air.

[srainhoutx]

Fog appears to be less of a problem this morning compared to yesterday. A weak front should pass during the ate afternoon/overnight time frame before washing out.

The next in a series of cold fronts should arrive late Thursday into Friday and appears to be a bit stronger and will drop temps from the mid 70's back down to seasonal or perhaps a bit lower and also bring some light rain chances mainly E of Austin into Louisiana.

Attention then turns to the West Coast where a strong storm system will arrive onshore across the Pacific NW and drop SSE into the Great Basin. Winter RECON missions are ongoing for this potent storm system over the Pacific Ocean and are scheduled to continue overnight tonight. The HPC Medium Range Discussion addressed this storm system early this morning and is suggesting that a slower more southern tracking storm may well be in the cards early next week. While there remains some uncertainty, it does appear a very potent Winter Storm somewhat similar to the Christmas Storm event may well lie ahead offering very strong dynamics and a offer a verity of weather with both wintry precip in the cold sector as well as a severe potential in the warm sector as the storm ejects from Great Basin across the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains on ENE toward the Ohio Valley. Stay Tuned! The new Dual Pol Radar may well get its first test...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
407 AM EST MON JAN 21 2013

VALID 12Z THU JAN 24 2013 - 12Z MON JAN 28 2013

WHILE THE LONGER WAVE FLOW DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD HAS
REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY FOR SEVERAL CYCLES...THE DETAILS OF THE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PATTERN HAVE NOT. MODELS STILL AGREE IN
ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ON DAY 3/THU...TO
AMPLIFY INTO A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD
DAYS 4-5/FRI-SAT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC...WHILE THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST THAT HAS FAVORED A SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND FOR SOME TIME...IS REPLACED WITH A MEAN LONGWAVE
TROUGH TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONCERNING THE DAY-TO-DAY
SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE BULK OF PRIOR DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
LOW TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COMPARED TO MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE
ACCOMPANYING HIGH SOLUTION SPREAD AND HIGHER THAN USUAL
UNCERTAINTY...PRIOR FORECASTS HAVE LEANED HEAVILY UPON ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND FORECAST CONTINUITY. IF THE 00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF
SHOWS A SIMILAR TREND AS MOST OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS...UPDATES TO
ALL FORECAST PARAMETERS FOR DAYS 3-5 FROM THE PLAINS EASTWARD WILL
BE ISSUED BEFORE 10Z. GIVEN THE COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE ICE/SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG
AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW.

TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE
WEST COAST NEXT WEEKEND ALSO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS
STILL HEAVILY PREFERRED GIVEN THE LONGER TIME FRAME AND EVEN
LARGER SPREAD THAN THE CENTRAL/EAST SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.
THEREFORE...EXPECT TO MAKE LITTLE OR NO CHANGES FOR THIS
PARTICULAR SYSTEM BASED ON ANY CHANGES SEEN IN THE 00Z
ECMWF...WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE A TEMPORARY RETURN
TO A RAINY PERIOD ALONG COASTAL AREAS ALONG WITH HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOWS.

...UPDATE...

ALL PARAMETERS FOR DAYS 3 AND 4 WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT A 00Z
UKMET/00Z GEFS MEAN COMPROMISE...
WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER AND SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.

JAMES


00Z GEFS:

00Z Euro Ensembles Mean:

[wxman57]

Not a calibration issue, just a temperature inversion a few thousand feet up that's affecting the radar beam. The beam is bent toward the ground by the inversion.

See:
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/391/

[srainhoutx]

An additional WSR (Winter Storm RECON) mission has been tasked for 0000Z Jan 23rd to fly the Pacific for high altitude data.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EST MON 21 JANUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JANUARY 2013
         WSPOD NUMBER.....12-052

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
       A. P46/ DROP 7 (34.0N 132.8W)/ 23/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 05WSC TRACK46      
       C. 22/2000Z
       D. 14 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED.
       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 23/0600Z

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARKS: TRACK P52 WITH A CONTROL TIME OF 22/0000Z
       WILL BE FLOWN AS SCHEDULED ON WSPOD 12-051.

[srainhoutx]

A weak front will wash out today and a return flow off the Gulf will become established bringing slightly above seasonal temps and modest moisture returns before a bit stronger front arrives late Thursday/early Friday. Fog and a slight chance of light rain may return prior to that frontal passage. Cooler seasonal temps appear to be the theme for the up coming weekend before big changes and a return flow takes hold by Sunday.

All eyes turn W as the upper Ridge that has brought plentiful sunshine and a January thaw to our region breaks downs down and a deep trough and potent upper air disturbances moves onshore in California and drops SSE. At the base of that Western trough, a powerful storm system develops and attempts to close off. Further N along the British Colombia/Pacific NW Coast another potent storm system moves inland setting the stage for embedded short wave activity sliding S along the W flank of the deepening trough to our W. Moisture flowing off the Gulf returns in earnest at all levels in response to the Western trough and deepening storm across Arizona/Northern Mexico as pressures fall. The Euro and its ensembles are slower and deeper with this developing storm along with the Canadian and the GEFS. The operational GFS is a bit more progressive and a tad less stormy, but there are strong indications that the Euro idea is the more likely solution and additional Winter Storm RECON is tasked for the overnight hours tonight.

Beginning Monday into Tuesday, cold air building across Western Canada is pulled S into the Great Basin while warm air with increasing Gulf moisture streams N into the Southern Plains. As we saw with the Christmas Storm, such a scenario tends to suggest winter weather in the Cold sector and a severe threat in the Warm sector. The eventual track of the upper closed cold core low will be key as to where the wintry mischief falls and exactly where the greatest threat for severe weather may unfold. Another fly in the ointment is the MJO and a noisy sub tropical jet. This is a very complex and complicated weather pattern, but the trends suggest a potent Winter Storm is ahead for next week with potential wide spread societal impacts from the West Coast into the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains on N and E into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley Regions. Stay Tuned!

[wxman57]

06Z GFS says we'll be in the warm sector next week. Euro is a bit cooler. I like the 6Z GFS' way of thinking, mainly because I like warmer temps. But I think it may erring a bit too warm.

[Texas Pirate]

Putting in my order for warmer weather.....

[Portastorm]

Sorry wxman57 ... but your government professional colleagues at HPC say the GFS runs aren't worth much and they're going with the Euro and its ensembles.


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
204 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 25 2013 - 12Z TUE JAN 29 2013

...BECOMING WETTER ACROSS THE WEST...
...WINTER STORM AND COLD IN THE EAST...

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE
FINE DETAILED STRUCTURE OF THE SPLIT UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN HAWAII
AND THE WEST COAST AND THE UPPER VORTEX NEAR HUDSON BAY...BASED ON
HIGHER THAN USUAL SPREAD AND LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH
HOW THEY INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
THESE CONSIDERATIONS GENERALLY RESULT IN BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE
IN THE DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS
FLORIDA...WITH A EMPHASIS TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
ACROSS THE WEST...AND A 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/18Z GEFS MEAN
COMPROMISE ACROSS THE EAST.

ACROSS THE WEST...THE 00Z GFS WAS ABANDONED ON DAYS
3-4/FRI-SAT...DUE TO RAPID PROGRESSION AND POOR MODEL SUPPORT FOR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SPLIT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INLAND. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WAS NEARLY EQUAL AGREEMENT FOR AN
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/GEFS MEAN MIX...WITH THE GEFS SLIGHTLY FASTER
BUT NOT UNREASONABLE. HOWEVER...BEGINNING DAY 5/SUN...THE
AMPLIFYING NATURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FAVORS A SLOWER
SCENARIO...WHICH A MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS SHOW. THUS...HAVE
SWITCHED TO AN ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. IF THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN VERIFY....WHICH ARE SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED...A MORE CONCENTRATED REGION OF RAINFALL WILL
INFLUENCE CALIFORNIA AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...WHICH IS BASED MORE ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.

ACROSS THE EAST...USED A COMBINATION OF THE 18Z GEFS MEAN/00Z
(YESTERDAY) UKMET FOR THE LOW MOVING TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...WITH THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF AND FASTER 12Z GFS FURTHER FROM
THE CONSENSUS BUT STILL PLAUSIBLE SOLUTIONS. THE LARGE ARRAY OF
SOLUTIONS APPEARS PARTIALLY RELATED TO HOW NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO REFORM NEAR THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT BEFORE CONSOLIDATING
WITH THE PARENT LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE SUBFREEZING
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE LOW'S APPROACH FAVORS A
SIGNIFICANT SWATH OF FREEZING AND FROZEN PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
TIMING/AMOUNTS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR BASED ON THE LARGE SOLUTION
SPREAD...BUT PRESENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY FROM THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY/APPALACHIANS/CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

JAMES

[Texas Pirate]

So does that mean more cold and rain for us here in SE TX? or just cold and dry?

[srainhoutx]

So does that mean more cold and rain for us here in SE TX? or just cold and dry?

It appears that we will see increasing rain and storm chances early next week as the storm system deepens to our W near Arizona/New Mexico. Warmer temps ahead of that storm as moisture and winds off the Gulf increase in response to that deepening upper low and attending surface low pressure system before the storm passes across the Southern Plains can be expected. Once the storm system passes, 'colder air' will likely drop S behind that front. Just how cold remains to be seen. My hunch is nothing any colder than what we have seen already this Winter Season. That said there is a lot of uncertainty and the severe episode for the warm sector will need to be monitored as we get closer. Also of note a lot of snow may fall to our West across Northern Arizona into New Mexico extending E in the cold sector as this potent storm will have an abundance of Pacific moisture to work with. It will likely be very windy before and after the storm passes off to our N and E.