Wx Infinity Forums

With October coming to a close, any idea what our Thanksgiving weather will be?

Any signs of our first freeze? Can we expect out first freeze in November...or too early to say?

I do not know about this year ( I think it maybe too far out as of this time...) but these are the normals....for November 22...


High: 70


Low: 50


http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_normals_nov

Dang near hit freezing here at my house in Montgomery County this morning with a low of 34! Very nice.

So when is our next weather change coming down? Anything showing up in the models?

I would expect this boring pattern to possibly continue (in general) for the state of Texas until maybe the 9th-11th of November. Though the southern half of the state could get a decent rain this weekend. PNA looks like it may go more neutral, or even slightly positive shortly, then modeled to dip negative again. The NAO now looks to remain slightly negative for quite a while,though a few days ago, models were showing a trek into positive territory. All in all, nothing screams a storm, but hopefully we can get into a more active pattern come early to mid month.

It looks like our next front of Pacific origin will arrive on Sunday. A zonal flow appears to be the theme until near mid month when we may see another strong Polar front diving S from Canada and increasing rain chances, but that is way too far out to speculate at this point. Meanwhile we are getting rather dry and could use some rain.

Still a long way out, but here is our next potential change in the weather department. It could bring some stormy weather to the Plains and a return to chilly temps as well. Menawhile, don't forget to set your clocks back an hour Saturday night as Daylight Savings Time ends...

The 12Z Euro is a step in the right direction for an active mid November storm system. We will see...

The overnight operational GFS and Euro continue to advertise a potent storm system dropping S from Canada as a deep trough develops to our W and a robust upper/surface low ejects from the Southern Rockies near the mid November time frame. We will see...

AZ_ARIZONA_DESERT wrote:mid 80s and high humidity in NOVEMBER IS BS.
WE NEED RAINFALL.WHERE IS IT? WE NEED COLDER WEATHER,,WHERE IS IT? AGAIN,, NO ONE IS ADDRESSING THE LACK OF RAINFALL.
I MEAN COME ON GUYS. NOVEMBER,,MIDD 80S? THATS TOO WARM.SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE DONE NOW

We've already addressed this situation Arizona. Mid 80's is not uncommon whatsoever during the month of November and even December for that matter. We live in south Texas. Right on the water. After a cold front moves through, high pressure builds in, keeps us cool for a few days, moves East and then we get a flow from the SE off the Gulf. I'm not sure if you will ever be happy living down here as this is typical Texas weather.

Dense Fog across the region this morning with visibility near 1/4 mile is some locations. The Pacific front is still on schedule for late Sunday evening into Monday bringing a chance of showers/isolated storms as it nears the area. Seasonal temps will return after a warm week of temps near 90 with lows in the upper 50's and highs in the 70's behind the front. Attention turns to mid November as a deep Western trough develops and much colder air is poised to spill S from Canada. There are still indications that a robust storm complex will develop to our W at the base of the trough and eject NE into the Plains that may bring a squall line into Texas with some severe weather potential near the 12th, +/- a day or two as a much stronger front enters the region.

To our NE, there are hints of a Nor'easter mid next week for those trying to get back to some normality after Sandy. Inland snow and strong gusty winds with more beach erosion issues may add to the difficulties for those affected by Sandy earlier this week along the NJ, NYC, CT and SNE areas.

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Local area has been fairly dry over the past few weeks as the upper air pattern has been blocked up with “Superstorm Sandy” in the east and high pressure over the central plains. With Sandy departing now into Canada, the pattern is slowly starting to move again and in turn the cool and dry weather from last weekend has been replaced with humid and warm weather.

Radar and visible satellite images show a plume of deeper moisture moving northward along the southern TX coast this morning and inland over Matagorda Bay. Radars show scattered showers from Matagorda Bay southward into the western Gulf of Mexico moving northward as moisture increases.

As a cold front moves into the state this weekend, southerly flow will increase and help bring this plume of deeper moisture inland across the area. Short term meso models are showing some decent rainfall coverage on Saturday as scattered showers develop and move northward over the region from the SSW. Global models do not look as wet as the shorter term models for Saturday, but based on the current trends offshore, I am leaning more toward the wetter side of the guidance especially for the SW parts of the area around Matagorda Bay.

Cool front should move into the area on Monday with scattered showers again possible on Sunday ahead of this boundary. Main dynamics will pass well north of SE TX so only scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm will be possible with this front.

Rainfall amounts Saturday-Monday will average between .25 and .75 of an inch.

Air mass behind the boundary will be cool but not cold and temperatures will run from lows in the 50’s to highs near 80 next week, but humidity values will be much more comfortable compared to the weekend.

Both NAO/AO look to go strongly positive here in the next week or so, also PNA values appear to be heading back towards negative values from their current positive standing. Not sure yet what affect these factors will have on next weekend's storm and associated cold air dump. I definitely wouldn't say these are favorable signs though...

weatherguy425 wrote:Both NAO/AO look to go strongly positive here in the next week or so, also PNA values appear to be heading back towards negative values from their current positive standing. Not sure yet what affect these factors will have on next weekend's storm and associated cold air dump. I definitely wouldn't say these are favorable signs though...

I wouldn't put a lot of faith in the NAO/AO or even the PNA forecasts just yet. The pattern is transitioning from one that has mainly provided deep East Coast troughs and storminess to one where the West will begin to get active. The 12Z GFS finally trended toward what the Euro and GGEM had been suggesting regarding a significant Nor'easter next week for the areas affected by Sandy. Also the GFS/Euro continue to advertise some chilly weather with a potent storm ejecting from the Four Corners Region into the Plains during the mid month time frame. We will see.

Yeah, it's still a week or more out. Models have actually come into better agreement regarding late next week's cold air-mass and storm system. Just the NAO/AO & PNA trends of late are not ones I want to see. But like you said, models have trouble with this anomalies even on a good day, let alone one where we're in the midst of a significant pattern change.

Skies are clouding up in Stafford. I am hearing thunder. Could we get some rain?

sure hope so

surprised to see this

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
151 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-032130-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
151 PM CDT SAT NOV 3 2012

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A WARM BUOYANT ATMOSPHERE AND NUMEROUS INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE FUNNEL
CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND DIFFICULT TO DETECT WITH RADAR.
THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY STRETCH TO THE GROUND AND BECOME
WEAK SHORT LIVED TORNADOES. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IF YOU
OBSERVE A FUNNEL CLOUD. THE THREAT FOR THE FUNNEL CLOUDS SHOULD
END AROUND SUNSET.

$$

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

Hearing some rumbles of thunder now off in the distance. Radar is filling in to our W, so it does appear the Western Areas are in for some showers/storms. Also for those following the potential Nor'easter, the 12Z Euro paints and very windy, wet (snow inland/rain near the Coastal areas) and cold storm for areas affected by Sandy...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
137 PM EDT SAT NOV 03 2012

VALID 12Z TUE NOV 06 2012 - 12Z SAT NOV 10 2012


...CHANCES INCREASING FOR A SLOW-MOVING NOR'EASTER ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST...

...ARCTIC OUTBREAK WITH UPSLOPE SNOWS SLATED FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...


USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z/03 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND EUROPEAN
CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3
THROUGH 7. THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERING MORE
TIGHTLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, INDICATING THAT THE VOID IN
THE ATMOSPHERE LEFT BEHIND SANDY AND ITS POST-TROPICAL VORTEX WILL
BE REENERGIZED NEXT WEEK- THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF A MORE TYPICAL
NOR'EASTER. THE BLOCKING PATTERN- WHERE THE NORMAL WEST-TO-EAST
FLOW BREAKS UP INTO QUASISTATIONARY CYCLONIC AND ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS- IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT OCEANS. AS A
WHOLE, THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE ENSEMBLE
PRODUCTS, WAS RELIABLE WITH THE HANDLING OF SANDY AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH THE COLD VORTEX THAT DUG INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES, SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD IT FOR THIS SEPARATE, BUT NOT
ENTIRELY UNRELATED EVENT. ALL THE MODELS, INCLUDING THE GFS, GEM
GLOBAL, AND UKMET, INDICATE A LARGE CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THIS PERIOD, WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE AND HOW DEEP
THE SYSTEM MATERIALIZES. IF THE STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
COAST, IT APPEARS THE AIRMASS MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW TO
FALL, EVEN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC DETAIL
WILL HAVE TO BE REFINED WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS UPCOMING EVENT AND SANDY'S
INCORPORATION INTO THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE UPSTREAM OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES, WHERE AN ARCTIC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DAYS 6 AND 7.
WITH A POWERFUL PACIFIC JET IMPINGING ON THE WEST, THE STAGE WILL
BE SET FOR SNOWS BOTH IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE COASTAL STATES AND
IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF MONTANA.


CISCO