November: Warm and Dry To End The Month

[Katdaddy]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN TX INTO SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051919Z - 052045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH THREAT PERHAPS BECOMING
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE EVOLVING CU FIELD ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN TX AND ADJACENT SWRN LA...AS A WEAK TROUGH/COOL
FRONT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS E TX. AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES
ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT INITIATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION ATTM...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST AS A
MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES SPREADING ACROSS THIS AREA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY VEERED/WLY WHICH WILL MITIGATE APPRECIABLE
TORNADO POTENTIAL...THE INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION -- AND ASSOCIATED/ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR WIND
THREAT WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS.

[srainhoutx]

CU field increasing and some TCU's beginning to develop just N of I-10 back to our W...

[Belmer]

Very dark skies here in San Marcos. Looks like it will pour any minute.

[srainhoutx]

From Jeff:

SPC has issued a Severe thunderstorm Watch for all of SE TX until 900pm.

Early this afternoon visible images show an increasingly agitated cumulus field across SE and C TX as a strong shortwave approaches from the north. Radar in the last 30 minutes has shown the formation of echoes in west-east bands from near Austin to Hempstead. With continue heating and incoming southward moving frontal boundary reaching our northern counties, expect rapid development of strong to severe thunderstorms over the next 1-2 hours. Storms are moving toward the SSE to SE at 10-15mph.

Main threats will be strong gusty winds possibly to 60mph and isolated large hail. While storms will remain scattered in nature, those that do develop will have a decent shot at becoming severe. Broken line of storms should move off the TX coast between 600-800pm evening any severe weather threat.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Outline and Radar overlay:

[wxman57]

80S AGAIN BY THURSDAY? COME ON ITS NOVEMBER ALLREADY. THOSE OF YOU WHO SAY 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR NOVEMBER I DISAGREE. 80S ARE POSSIBLE,YES. BUT SOMETHING IS WRONG HERE.
80S FOR NOVEMBER IN HOUSTON IS NOT NORMAL. THEY ARE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS,BOTTOM LINE.
NOW WX MAN SAYING THE FRONT NEXT MONDAY WILL BE WEAK AND ONLY DROP LOWS INTO THE 50S?**** THAT.
SOMETHING IS WRONG WHEN A NOVEMBER FRONT CAN ONLY DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 50S. THIS IS PATHETIC,
WE NEED COLD AIR WE NEED PRECIPITATION AND WE NEED IT NOW. IM SICK OF THE 80S

I agree, 80s in November is ridiculous. How am I supposed to tolerate such cool weather? I miss the 90s...

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
312 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012

TXC291-052130-
/O.CON.KHGX.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-121105T2130Z/
LIBERTY TX-
312 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CST
FOR WESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY...

AT 310 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLEVELAND...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE STORM WAS MOVING TOWARD STATE
HIGHWAY 321.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAYTON...KENEFICK...PLUM GROVE...AND DAYTON LAKES.

[srainhoutx]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
339 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012

TXZ200-214-052200-
CHAMBERS TX-LIBERTY TX-
339 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 335 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DAYTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LIBERTY...DAYTON...ANAHUAC...OLD RIVER-
WINFREE...AMES... KENEFICK...AND DAYTON LAKES.

[srainhoutx]

A chilly 49 up here in NW Harris County this morning. Dry and comfortable weather is on tap for the next couple of days before the Gulf opens up and a very deep Western trough with a robust upper low/surface low pressure develops and ejects into the Plains this weekend.

The East Coast is bracing for a Nor'easter and Winter RECON has been tasked to sample due to the potential impacts to the region ravaged by Sandy last week...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EST MON 05 NOVEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z NOVEMBER 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-170

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

NOTE:1. ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS;
     FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
     A. A65/ DROP 9 (28.7N 76.6W)/ 07/0000Z
     B. AFXXX 01WSA TRACK65
     C. 06/1845Z
     D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED.
     E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 07/0200Z

     2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[wxman57]

Yikes! 12Z GFS has Houston's temps into the upper 30s Monday with highs in the 50s! Glad I'm flying out to Orlando on Sunday.

[djjordan]

Time to get some firewood. C'mon Wxman .... alright .... just bring your bike with you to Orlando. You'll be just fine LOL.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Little variation in our local weather for the next 2-3 days as weak onshore winds return this afternoon. Moisture will be slow to return until the weekend, then a fairly steep increase in moisture is expected as the next storm system approaches from the west. Upper level pattern over the US will undergo a transition over the next 5 days from a trough in the eastern part of the country to a trough in the western part of the country. As this western US trough develops, an increasing WSW to SW flow aloft over TX will result is small disturbances riding into the region and interacting with increasing Gulf of Mexico moisture to produce a few streamer showers by Saturday.

Main upper trough and strong cold front will move into and through TX by Sunday. Deeper Gulf moisture will surge into the region and expected a few scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon mainly north of I-10 closer to the stronger jet stream dynamics. Front slices into the warm and humid air mass on Sunday night/early Monday morning and forecast models are suggesting a squall line of thunderstorms will affect at least the northern ½ of SE TX in the overnight period. I am not all that impressed with the instability nor the jet dynamics aloft and think any strong/severe threat will be north and east of our local area.

Models are in decent timing on the front pushing off the coast and with rapid drying behind the boundary along with decent cold air advection. Lows will fall into the 30’s/40’s by Tuesday morning with highs in the 60’s and 70’s under mainly clear skies. Will continue to monitor the Sunday PM-Monday AM time period for any changes to the forecast.

NE US Nor’easter:

Strong nor’easter moving up the US east coast this morning with strong winds, damaging waves, and rain/snow. Surface low continues to intensify off the DELMARVA this morning with gusty winds of 20-30mph affecting the New Jersey and NE US coasts. Rain shield has moved into the coastal areas hit hard by Sandy just over a week ago. Given the further offshore track of this system compared to the right angle strike of Sandy, the worst of the weather will remain offshore however destruction of large dunes and massive beach erosion from Sandy will result in only minor coastal flooding and wave action causing problems.

Current forecast suggest winds of 40-50mph with gust to 60mph which may bring down additional trees and result in more power outages on top of the 1 million still without power. Storm surge values of 1-4 feet are expected along the coast with total water level rise at high tide (surge plus tide) of 4-7 feet. With coastal protection already destroyed, overwash and flooding of coastal barrier islands and low lying areas is likely and evacuation orders are once again in effect for portions of the New Jersey and New York City area. Large waves of 4-9 feet on top of the coastal water level rise will result in additional heavy erosion and potential failure of damaged coastal structures.

Unlike Sandy, more cold air is wrapped into this system and snow will fall on the north and western edge of the precipitation shield. Snow amounts will average 1-4 inches with isolated totals up to 12 inches mainly away from the immediate coast and likely just NW of NYC.

Additional damage is likely on several fronts from this storm system and ongoing recovery efforts will be hampered however damages will be nowhere close to that of Sandy.

[hlewis]

I don't see any really cold air on the horizon (next few weeks). Weak front next Monday may drop morning lows into the 50s again for a day or two, but that's about it. I'll be in Florida (Orlando) all next week. Looking mild and dry there.

Doesn't sound like a weak front anymore, does it?!! LOL brrrr

[srainhoutx]

One of the more informative AFD I've seen in a while from HGX regarding just how much of a change this next front will bring along with the potential for some badly needed rain for our area. One thing we'll need to watch as the week ahead unfolds is just how much of a return flow off the Gulf we see and if PW's increase enough to spark some stronger storms as the front passes. Another thing worth monitoring is just how quickly that frontal boundary approaches Central/SE TX and if it arrives later in the day/early evening on Sunday ~vs~ overnight or early next Monday. I suspect there may be a severe potential somewhere in the Lone Star State with this potent storm and cold front. We will see.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 PM CST WED NOV 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
YET ANOTHER GORGEOUS DAY FOR US HERE IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AS THE
REGION IS UNDER THE AXIS OF AN ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING UP INTO THE GREAT NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS RIDGE SLIDES
EAST...A LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZE WILL WAKE UP FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY...VEERING ONSHORE BY MID TO LATE DAY.
THUS...CURRENT DEW POINTS IN THE AVERAGE MIDDLE 30S WILL INCREASE
BACK INTO THE AVERAGE MIDDLE 50S BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. PARTIALLY
CLOUDY...MORE HUMID AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYS AHEAD IN THE SHORT
TERM. THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE UPON SIGNIFICANTLY
STRENGTHENED SOUTHERLIES. TRANSITORY MID-UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS
ACROSS AND OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A PACIFIC
NORTHWEST DEEP UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG DOWN INTO THE GREAT
BASIN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LOWER ROCKY MOUNTAIN/WESTERN
PLAINS SURFACE PRESSURES AND TIGHTLY DRAW UP A TAUNT ONSHORE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY INTO (AND THROUGH) THE WEEKEND.
OTHER THAN DEALING WITH A FEW ISOLATED UNDER-THE-CAP STREAMER
SHOWERS (WARM NOSE FORECAST IN THE 7H LAYER)...THIS WEEKEND WILL
BE CLOUDIER AND A HAT-GRABBER AS LATE WEEK BRISK RETURN FLOW
STRENGTHENS TO 10-15G20KTS INLAND...AROUND 15-20KT SUSTAINED ALONG
THE COAST.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE CWA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...THE MAIN BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A STRONG ENOUGH HIGH CELL (AT AROUND 1032 MB)...WITH AN
AMPLE PUNCH OF COLD AND DRY AIR...BEHIND THIS LATEST COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN BELIEVING IT`S PASSAGE WILL QUICKLY SWING OUR EARLY
WORK WEEK WINDS AROUND TO MODERATE OFFSHORE. THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH DIVE A VERY COLD (4-6 C AT 85H) AIR MASS INTO EASTERN TEXAS
BY TUESDAY MORNING. BECAUSE OF THE SYNOPTIC POSITIONING OF THE
REINFORCING POST-FRONTAL HIGH CELL AND A MID-NEGATIVE TEEN DEGREE
C AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS SUNDAY...THERE IS
MORE OF A GUARANTEE THAT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AND DRIER BY OUR EARLY NOVEMBER CLIMO
STANDARDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER WITH WHAT TYPE OF WEATHER THIS
FROPA WILL BRING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MID-MONDAY. NPW THERMO
PROFILES ARE NOT EXTREMELY CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD HIGH QPF NOR
SEVERE...ALTHOUGH THEY ALL SIGNAL RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
WARM WEDGE TO GET THROUGH AS LAPSE RATES LOOK SLUGGISH JUST AHEAD
OF THE (PRE)FRONTAL TROUGH. AS OF NOW...THE BOUNDARY ITSELF LOOKS
SHARP ENOUGH TO PROVIDE THE LIFT NEEDED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN A MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AND HIGH PWAT AIR MASS (BY NOVEMBER
STANDARDS) PER A FEW DAYS OF EFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION. WHETHER
THIS AGGRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS...OR HAS ENOUGH UMPH TO
INITIATE STRONG CONVECTION....REMAINS A MYSTERY.

[Ptarmigan]

November has had severe weather outbreaks like in 1992 and 2003. There have been flooding in 1998, 2002, and 2004. Wharton County saw 19 inches of rain in November 2004.

November Severe Weather Events
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=severe_events_november

[txflagwaver]

really smoky down here...

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a strong front arriving late Sunday/early Monday. The main interest regarding this front will be the rain potential and if we remained capped preventing severe storms from developing. It does appear that a line of showers/storms will accompany the frontal passage, but we will likely clear out fairly quickly with brisk NW gusty winds and falling temps during the day on Monday. Tuesday morning may see temps drop into the mid to upper 30’s across our northern regions and folks in Central Texas may see some frost and perhaps their first freeze of the year. We’ll monitor those temps in the days ahead to see if they extend further S. The Colorado Rockies may well see a rather significant snow event this weekend that extends into the Plains with this front along with a severe episode prior to the front sweeping S as moisture from the Gulf spreads N. Locally we can expect warmer nights and temps in the 80’s with gusty winds out of the SE ahead of the front Friday and Saturday as this potent storm system ejects into the Plains.

[texoz]

What's the weekend of Nov. 17th/18th looking like for C. Texas? It's a big soccer tournament weekend here.

[srainhoutx]

What's the weekend of Nov. 17th/18th looking like for C. Texas? It's a big soccer tournament weekend here.

Another upper low is expected to eject out of the Great Basin next week and the Gulf will open up again after our cool down early next week. Next Friday into Saturday may be a bit wet in Central Texas, but that still a long way out in model world to know with any certainty...

[wxman57]

What's the weekend of Nov. 17th/18th looking like for C. Texas? It's a big soccer tournament weekend here.

Overnight models indicate a rather weak front arriving next Saturday then washing out over Texas on Sunday. Could result in scattered showers next weekend. Temps in the low 60s to low 80s.

[texoz]

thanks, guys! I'll keep checking back in for updates. Your info is appreciated.

Also, just remembered that there's a "little" event called the F1 Circuit of the Americas race that weekend. They're expecting over 100,000 people, many arriving from around the world, to attend.