Hurricane Sandy: Northern Bahamas Heading NW

[ticka1]

will it affect washinton dc and new york city?

[Belmer]

will it affect washinton dc and new york city?

Too early to tell whether it will affect them directly or not. However, this will affect the whole East coast from Miami, FL to upstate in Maine. Sandy is a large storm and only growing. It will be an interesting weekend as we all monitor this storm. Feel sorry for the kiddos this Halloween as there might not be one as possibly millions will be without power for days if not weeks -- if models hold up right now on Sandy's path.

[Ptarmigan]

Don't see a 925 mb storm modelled just off NYC very often. 18Z GFDL

That is a real monster of a storm!

[Belmer]

Sandy now a Category TWO storm with winds of 110mph. Almost a Cat 3...

12:30 AM EDT Thu Oct 25
Location: 19.6°N 76.1°W
Moving: NNE at 13 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

[Belmer]

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1230 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS SOUTHWEST OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 1230 AM EDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 76.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE HURRICANE SANDY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED...AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 110 MPH...175 KM/H. THIS
MAKE SANDY A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...
AND SANDY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Ptarmigan]

I think Sandy has a good chance at being a major hurricane soon.

[Belmer]

I think Sandy has a good chance at being a major hurricane soon.

It looks like it will make landfall here in the next 10 minutes or so. I doubt it. But you never know... Eye looks impressive.

[Ptarmigan]

SSD ADT:
2012OCT25 044500 6.5 936.3/ +1.4 /127.0 6.5 6.6 7.2 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF 0.24 -75.87 EYE -99 IR 19.78 75.87 COMBO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... L-list.txt

Raw T of 7.0, Adjusted Raw T at 6.6, or Final T at 6.5. That puts Sandy as a Category 4/5 hurricane! I do not totally rely on the Dvorak Technique.

Dvorak Intensity Chart
CI Number Maximum Sustained
One Minute Winds
(kts) Central Pressure
(mb)
Atlantic NW Pacific
0.0 <25 ---- ----
0.5 25 ---- ----
1.0 25 ---- ----
1.5 25 ---- ----
2.0 30 1009 1000
2.5 35 1005 997
3.0 45 1000 991
3.5 55 994 984
4.0 65 987 976
4.5 77 979 966
5.0 90 970 954
5.5 102 960 941
6.0 115 948 927
6.5 127 935 914
7.0 140 921 898
7.5 155 906 879
8.0 170 890 858

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/H1.html

[Belmer]

Looks like Sandy has made her second landfall of the day in Southeastern Cuba. To be more precise, looks like Santiago de Cuba.





In my opinion, this should ramp up pretty quickly once it passes over Cuba into the Bahamas.
Heaven help the New England states if GFS/Euro verify. It's not like they saw Irene just over a year ago or anything...

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like Sandy has made her second landfall of the day in Southeastern Cuba. To be more precise, looks like Santiago de Cuba.





In my opinion, this should ramp up pretty quickly once it passes over Cuba into the Bahamas.
Heaven help the New England states if GFS/Euro verify. It's not like they saw Irene just over a year ago or anything...

It is going to be a real mess. Forecast model has Sandy much larger than Irene. Perhaps, Sandy could Super Typhoon Tip sized..........................

[Belmer]

I agree. This will be the storm of all storms for New Englanders. Though, I guess you can argue worse ones, we're talking about a much more populated area. Will be devestating for those folks and my prayers will be with them as this very well could be an historic storm in the making. As sad as it may be for the kids this year and not having a Halloween, this is also getting close to the holidays and would hate to see a storm wreck havoc for families during these times.

[srainhoutx]

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF SANDY HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS
IMPRESSIVE AFTER MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA. THE EYE IS NO LONGER
APPARENT IN IMAGERY OR IN OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT...AND THE
CDO HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED ON THE WESTERN SIDE BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...
AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY
REMAINS QUITE STRONG...WITH A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 700 MB OF
126 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 964 MB. DATA FROM THE SFMR AND
DROPSONDES SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS FROM FLIGHT LEVEL ARE NOT
CURRENTLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THE TYPICAL RATIO...SO A
BLEND OF THE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME THE OUTER WIND FIELD OF
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND...AND SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE A LARGE
CYCLONE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14...AFTER A BIT OF A JOG TO THE
RIGHT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE REASONING FOR THE SHORT-TERM
PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. SANDY SHOULD MOVE
NORTHWARD TODAY AND SLOW DOWN AS IT TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON
FRIDAY WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
SANDY SHOULD THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN
SIGNIFICANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THIS
INTERACTION AND WHERE THE NORTHWEST TURN WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND
GFDL MODELS SHOW A QUICKER TURN...BRINGING THE CENTER INLAND BY DAY
5. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE GRADUAL TURN
WITH THE CENTER STILL OFFSHORE AT 120 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND LIES ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY...IT
IS LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NOT
DESIGNED TO HANDLE THE TYPE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH
SANDY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THESE PROBABILITIES
WILL UNDERESTIMATE THE ACTUAL RISK OF STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE
CENTER OF SANDY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 22.4N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 24.4N 75.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 26.2N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 27.4N 76.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 36.0N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 39.5N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Belmer]

Wonder if any of this dry air to the south will disrupt the storm any...?

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

THE STRUCTURE OF SANDY CONTINUES TO EVOLVE...AS SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST HAVE DISPLACED MOST
OF THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT
WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD HAVE BROADENED SUBSTANTIALLY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS FROM FLIGHT LEVEL DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE VERY EFFICIENTLY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 70 KT. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERWARD...SOME RE-
INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LARGE CYCLONE
DEEPENING OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. IT
APPEARS THAT SANDY WILL MAINTAIN SOME TYPE OF WARM SECLUSION
STRUCTURE UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SANDY COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL A LITTLE SOONER THAN
INDICATED HERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325/11. AS
SANDY CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LOW IT WILL SLOW DOWN
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 36 HOURS AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WHILE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SANDY TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE EXACT
TRACK. THE ECMWF...GFDL...HWRF...AND SOME OF THE HFIP GUIDANCE SHOW
A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHILE THE GFS AND
UKMET SHOW A WIDER TURN WITH A TRACK FARTHER NORTH TOWARD LONG
ISLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LIE BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND IS JUST A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. USERS ARE REMINDED TO NOT
FOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO A LARGE PART OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST AND THE EXPECTED GROWTH IN THE SIZE OF
THE OUTER WIND FIELD...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA ON THIS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 26.3N 76.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 27.2N 77.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 28.3N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 29.7N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 31.4N 74.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 35.5N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 38.5N 74.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 40.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Ptarmigan]

000
NOUS41 KPHI 262231
PNSPHI
DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-271815-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...POTENTIAL HISTORIC STORM FOR THE AREA...

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN TAKE A
TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. IT APPEARS THIS OCCURS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES, AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT OUR
REGION MAY EXPERIENCE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STORM, POSSIBLY OF
HISTORIC PROPORTIONS.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE EXACT STORM TRACK IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL IMPACTS. HOWEVER,
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE A LARGE STORM THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON
THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IN ADDITION, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN /POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 10
INCHES/ WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON RIVERS AND STREAMS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE MAJOR TO EVEN RECORD FLOODING.
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. AS WATER IS PUSHED TOWARD THE COAST, COASTAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE AND THIS COULD BE TO MAJOR TO PERHAPS EVEN RECORD LEVELS
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE EXTENT OF THE
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LARGE AND RECORD SETTING STORM, WITH
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND BEACH
EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. AT
THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE WORST OF THE RAIN AND
WIND LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MEANS THERE IS STILL TIME
TO PREPARE.

SOME SUGGESTED PRE-STORM ACTIONS ARE:

1. FUEL UP YOUR VEHICLES.

2. IF YOU HAVE A GENERATOR, BE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FUEL ON HAND.

3. TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES, MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE A SUPPLY OF FRESH BATTERIES AND A SUPPLY OF CANDLES OR
FLASHLIGHTS ON HAND.

4. BE SURE TO HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF FRESH WATER ON HAND FOR DRINKING
AND COOKING.

5. IF YOU STILL HAVE LAWN FURNITURE OUTSIDE, SECURE OR STORE IT
INDOORS. SECURE ANY OUTSIDE ITEMS THAT COULD BECOME AIRBORNE IN
STRONG WINDS, INCLUDING HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS.

6. CLEAN OUT ANY STORM DRAINS OR GUTTERS THAT MAY BE CLOGGED BY
LEAVES.

7. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA AND IF POSSIBLE, CONSIDER
MOVING ITEMS THAT MAY BECOME DAMAGED TO HIGHER GROUND.

8. IF YOU HAVE LIMITED MOBILITY OR KNOW OF SOMEONE WHO MAY BE
DISABLED, CONSIDER ARRANGING FOR TEMPORARY SHELTER IF THEY LIVE IN
AN AREA THAT MAY FLOOD OR COULD LOSE POWER.

9. IF YOU NEED TO EVACUATE, BE SURE TO CARE FOR YOUR PETS.

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

[srainhoutx]

Due the High Impact Societal Potential for the Mid Atlantic northward to New England and Canada, we have a discussion pinned on the main weather forum page for Sandy...

http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1545