Hurricane Sandy: Northern Bahamas Heading NW

[Ptarmigan]

Based on satellite, looks like Sandy could undergo rapid intensification. If the EURO forecast holds for, New York City could be in for some nasty storms and storm surge.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT
4 HOURS AGO INDICATED 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 55 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 986 MB. SINCE THEN...DEEP CONVECTION
WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -90C HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED
THE CENTER OF SANDY AND NOAA BUOY 42058 RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 KT WITH A GUST TO 64 KT MORE THAN 160 N MI
EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 60 KT.

SANDY IS MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH NOW...OR 010/12 KT. THE
FORECAST SCENARIO AND THE FORECAST TRACK REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH
48-72 HOURS. SANDY SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS OR MERGES WITH A POTENT MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH THAT IS SLIDING EASTWARD. AFTER 72 HR...SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND DIGGING TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE
NORTH AND WEST AFTER 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15...AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UP UNTIL SANDY MAKES LANDFALL ON
JAMAICA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...LAND INTERACTION WITH
JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA...COMBINED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING THAT TYPICALLY OCCURS UNDER SUCH
NEGATIVE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN SHOWING A 60-KT INTENSITY AFTER 36 HOURS
AND THE CYCLONE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...
THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND
THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 48-72 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AMOUNT OF BAROCLINIC INTERACTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 16.3N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 17.9N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR JAMAICA
24H 25/0600Z 20.6N 76.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND EASTERN CUBA
36H 25/1800Z 23.3N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 26/0600Z 25.7N 76.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.2N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 31.0N 73.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 33.4N 70.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Portastorm]

Wow ... I'm just stunned by what the 0z Euro shows. I don't know if I've ever seen that model show such a dramatic impact on CONUS. If that verifies ... this storm will easily go down in history as one of the great ones, er, great disasters.

[srainhoutx]

12Z Tracks & Intensity:

[srainhoutx]

It appears we have Hurricane Sandy...

URNT12 KNHC 241407
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 24/13:27:50Z
B. 16 deg 51 min N
076 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2930 m
D. 65 kt
E. 029 deg 15 nm
F. 123 deg 63 kt
G. 032 deg 19 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 9 C / 3012 m
J. 16 C / 3049 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. OPEN WNW
M. C48
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0418A SANDY OB 13
MAX FL WIND 69 KT SE QUAD 11:59:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 66 KT SW QUAD 13:36:30Z
Ragged eyewall

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 76.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN JAMAICA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS LIKELY BEFORE SANDY MOVES OVER JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN
JAMAICA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN CUBA BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[unome]

it actually looks better AFTER going over Jamaica !

[srainhoutx]

10242012_2132_goes13_x_vis1km_high_18LSANDY_70kts-973mb-177N-767W_91pc.jpg

[unome]

Cuba radar, not sure how long it will work

[TexasBreeze]

Amazing that that storm has support from Ecmwf too with Gfs trending towards it. It will be large in size.

[ticka1]

will it affect washinton dc and new york city?

[Belmer]

will it affect washinton dc and new york city?

Too early to tell whether it will affect them directly or not. However, this will affect the whole East coast from Miami, FL to upstate in Maine. Sandy is a large storm and only growing. It will be an interesting weekend as we all monitor this storm. Feel sorry for the kiddos this Halloween as there might not be one as possibly millions will be without power for days if not weeks -- if models hold up right now on Sandy's path.

[Ptarmigan]

Don't see a 925 mb storm modelled just off NYC very often. 18Z GFDL

That is a real monster of a storm!

[Belmer]

Sandy now a Category TWO storm with winds of 110mph. Almost a Cat 3...

12:30 AM EDT Thu Oct 25
Location: 19.6°N 76.1°W
Moving: NNE at 13 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph

[Belmer]

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1230 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS SOUTHWEST OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 1230 AM EDT...0430 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 76.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SW OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 015 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE HURRICANE SANDY HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED...AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 110 MPH...175 KM/H. THIS
MAKE SANDY A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...
AND SANDY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Ptarmigan]

I think Sandy has a good chance at being a major hurricane soon.

[Belmer]

I think Sandy has a good chance at being a major hurricane soon.

It looks like it will make landfall here in the next 10 minutes or so. I doubt it. But you never know... Eye looks impressive.

[Ptarmigan]

SSD ADT:
2012OCT25 044500 6.5 936.3/ +1.4 /127.0 6.5 6.6 7.2 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF 0.24 -75.87 EYE -99 IR 19.78 75.87 COMBO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... L-list.txt

Raw T of 7.0, Adjusted Raw T at 6.6, or Final T at 6.5. That puts Sandy as a Category 4/5 hurricane! I do not totally rely on the Dvorak Technique.

Dvorak Intensity Chart
CI Number Maximum Sustained
One Minute Winds
(kts) Central Pressure
(mb)
Atlantic NW Pacific
0.0 <25 ---- ----
0.5 25 ---- ----
1.0 25 ---- ----
1.5 25 ---- ----
2.0 30 1009 1000
2.5 35 1005 997
3.0 45 1000 991
3.5 55 994 984
4.0 65 987 976
4.5 77 979 966
5.0 90 970 954
5.5 102 960 941
6.0 115 948 927
6.5 127 935 914
7.0 140 921 898
7.5 155 906 879
8.0 170 890 858

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/H1.html

[Belmer]

Looks like Sandy has made her second landfall of the day in Southeastern Cuba. To be more precise, looks like Santiago de Cuba.





In my opinion, this should ramp up pretty quickly once it passes over Cuba into the Bahamas.
Heaven help the New England states if GFS/Euro verify. It's not like they saw Irene just over a year ago or anything...

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like Sandy has made her second landfall of the day in Southeastern Cuba. To be more precise, looks like Santiago de Cuba.





In my opinion, this should ramp up pretty quickly once it passes over Cuba into the Bahamas.
Heaven help the New England states if GFS/Euro verify. It's not like they saw Irene just over a year ago or anything...

It is going to be a real mess. Forecast model has Sandy much larger than Irene. Perhaps, Sandy could Super Typhoon Tip sized..........................