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Climate Prediction Center and the forecasters in Australia latest data shows that the final straw of El Nino is here.Right now El nino 3.4 area is down to +0.8C.The number to watch is +0.5 as is the limit of El Nino and below that is Neutral.

With reason JB is all over the 30 day SOI.It has been a tremendous run upwards only in a week.

The subsurface waters tell the story of how El Nino is dying.Those cool waters are expanding and will go to the surface soon.

Here are the April updates from all the ENSO models.None has El Nino mantaining thru the summer.

Cycloneye wrote:Here are the April updates from all the ENSO models.None has El Nino mantaining thru the summer.

Steve, your thoughts?

desiredwxgd wrote:

Steve, your thoughts?

I'll post some thoughts around May 1st.

srainhoutx wrote:

desiredwxgd wrote:

Steve, your thoughts?

I'll post some thoughts around May 1st.

LOL, Sounds like JB for his paid clients.

Still not fully 'buying the quick demise of El Nino' just yet.

srainhoutx wrote:Still not fully 'buying the quick demise of El Nino' just yet.

Steve,even with the SOI going up and the cool subsurface waters expanding?

Cycloneye wrote:
Steve,even with the SOI going up and the cool subsurface waters expanding?

Patience grasshopper. I suspect our Caribbean Neighbors will need to be watchful.

The latest subsurface graphic by ECMWF shows the warm waters waning while the cool waters expanding.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... me/xzmaps/

The Aussies have El Nino 3.4 at +0.6C only one number below is Neutral.

The demise of El Nino is inevitable very soon. See the cool waters how they continue to expand.

Here are all of the ENSO models in their April update. All are between Neutral and La Nina but some mantain Neutral longer in time than others.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

El Nino 3.4 down from +0.7C in last week's update to +0.5C in this week Climate Prediction Center update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

The Australians also are at 0.5.

CPC has released the May 6th Update concerning El Nino...

A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2010, which will continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

El Nino 3.4 area down to +0.3 on the weekly update by CPC.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Ed Mahmoud wrote:Which El Neenyo area becomes neutral between +/- 0.5º?


Because we're close to neutral already.



JB was giddy last night on the positive 90 day SOI...

Neutral is from +0.5 to -0.5.

We can say good-bye to El Nino now as the Australians deliver the obituary.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/