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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 7 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN



any thoughts oh great weather gurus??

Given the jet stream diving down nearly into the Gulf and increasing easterly winds aloft from Florida to the Bahamas over the next few days, it doesn't appear that the disturbance could reach Florida. Just a heavy rain threat for the Bahamas.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al972012_al162012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210111414
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

The only reason against calling it a TD is that it still appears to be attached to the cold front. Frontal lows don't qualify as TCs. Interesting that they forecast it to dissipate within 24 hrs. Don't see much point in calling it a TD at this point, but it's their call...

Here's a screen shot of the depression with surface obs plotted. You can clearly see the cold front (in the observations) passing right through the depression. Note the 25kt NE wind off the NE coast of Cuba (behind the cold front). No issues with squalls affecting any land areas, even the Bahamas. Shouldn't be around very long.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...PATTY FORMS BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 72.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.