TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 985 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...
ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY.
2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
SQUALLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
Last edited by srainhoutx on Mon Sep 17, 2012 7:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
Reason:edit title
Texas Coastal radars are starting to show some banding developing N of a broad low slowly moving NE about 150 miles SSE of Corpus. While this disturbance will be highly sheared as the upper trough swings E, there remains a chance of some development prior to moving inland Tuesday along the Louisiana Coast.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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