txflagwaver wrote:What concerns me is with Isaac weakening and becoming disorganized he will wander around the Guld and be even harder to forecast. I went through Ike and really hope to not have to go through another hurricane...I honestly could not start over again.
Isaac has done nothing so far but try to organize and has still to completely do so, although the signs appear to be there that it "might" finally be vertically stacking. Most of the storms this season have "outrun" themselves and have had difficulty stacking and forming a solid inner core. IMHO, until this system properly stacks, it will be less influenced by the weakness to it's North and more apt to move more WNW, hence subsequent shifts to the left. The "window" for feeling the weakness is closing (so to speak)...the weaker it remains, the farther it moves W/NW. Of course, this is just my quite humble opinion.
Scott747 wrote:Track shifted even further W than I thought. Just W of the Mississippi mouth and over New Orleans.
Have you heard anything about a center relocation.
They mentioned in the disco about a 'westward jog' but I don't think it's a relocation so to speak. Just the system become more vertically stacked. In fact I think it has already 'jogged' back to the N to balance out.
Ok Guys, been a very quiet serial lurker for quite a few years and never post - but since a few are taking time out to thank all you guys who are so skilled and qualified to study, break down and put all the info into what us "regular people" can understand and learn from - I am so thankful for a forum like this! I always turn to you guys when some kind of weather is developing. It may be slow news from time to time but I ALWAYS learn something after reading the forum. I only wish there was a LIKE button when someone makes a comment that really hits home and helps so many of us out! Thank you so much - you don't know how many people you really help out!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012
...ISAAC FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 82.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED NORTH OF JUPITER INLET.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO DESTIN FLORIDA...INCLUDING
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE
EAST COAST AND FROM TARPON SPRINGS SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST.
* FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF
LOUISIANA EARLY MONDAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT...
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...
335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
38 MPH WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED AT OPA
LOCKA AIRPORT NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
* NORTHERN GULF COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...6 TO 12 FT
* REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND APALACHEE BAY...4 TO 7 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
* SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...1 TO 3 FT
* CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...1 TO 3 FT
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...1 TO 3 FT
THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Probably the most important few sentences from the discussion. As we have talked about the last few days the spread between the more trusted models is unusually large which is leading to a much lesser confident forecast for this short of a range to landfall.
THE CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS BEEN MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NHC
FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND NEAR THE
HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
txflagwaver wrote:What concerns me is with Isaac weakening and becoming disorganized he will wander around the Gulf and be even harder to forecast. I went through Ike and really hope to not have to go through another hurricane...I honestly could not start over again.
You and me both txflagwaver. I am not mentally ready for another hurricane.
Me either. This brain tumor makes for lots of pain and constant loud ringing in my ears. No power, means hot conditions with no fan at night to mask the ring. No sleep. If we could just get some rain, but keep our power.
My gut feeling thus far is a repeat performance of Rita. But, as I'm watching the Gulf IR Loop, I see it tightening up, and NOT moving NW, like I'm seeing on cable news channels. I would sure hate to see him slam west of NOLA, as they don't need it. Still hanging tight, waiting to see what happens next! http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfir.html
JL Geyer
Advanced Skywarn Spotter
Wings Over Houston Staff, Medical Communications
Amateur Radio, KD5YLO
