Tropical Depression Isaac:

[djmike]

NHC track DID shift west a hair...but it did shift west! Hmmmm....

[djmike]

Is the GFS running? Anyone?

[wxman57]

NHC track DID shift west a hair...but it did shift west! Hmmmm....

Most likely landfall point is the FL panhandle west of Apalachicola. Possibly Panama City area. That's just a hair west of where the NHC track is now pointing. High pressure will be positioned over Texas next week, keeping Isaac away from us.

[wxman57]

Is the GFS running? Anyone?

GFS is in through 90 hrs so far:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

Through 111 hrs now - 26.6N/84.5W.
114hrs - 26.9N/85W
117hrs - 27.3N/85.3W (heading for Pensacola, it appears)
123hrs - 28.2N/85.9W (10am TUE - 150 miles south of Panama City)
132hrs - 29.4N/86W - heading north toward Panama City

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I'm laying money down in the office it is a Morgan City to Mobile landfall.

My pick? Biloxi.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS recap for those that can see the images:

[srainhoutx]

The only thing I would add is that the GFS does slow Isaac down remarkably as it makes landfall.

[wxman57]

The only thing I would add is that the GFS does slow Isaac down remarkably as it makes landfall.

Sort of like Georges (1998) but east.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

wxman57 and srain... Any chance this could strengthen to a solid Cat 3 given its track?

Last thing I need to happen is for it to take out Destin.

[srainhoutx]

wxman57 and srain... Any chance this could strengthen to a solid Cat 3 given its track?

Last thing I need to happen is for it to take out Destin.

Intesity forecasts at the range are a mere guess at best. The NHC has explained that this area of forecasting is what is being tested and as of August 31st, I believe that we'll see some unmanned drones sampling such things as eyewall replacement cycles and intensity. Also Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University is testing a very small drone to research intensity as well, I believe.

[srainhoutx]

The G-IV is going to be every active of Isaac...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 23 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z AUGUST 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-096

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 
    1. TROPICAL STORM ISAAC      
       FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73          FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 49--
       A. 24/1800Z,25/0000Z          A. 25/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 1209A ISAAC          B. NOAA9 1309A ISAAC  
       C. 24/1630Z                   C. 24/1730Z
       D. 17.5N 71.2W                D. NA
       E. 24/1730Z TO 25/0000Z       E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE --TEAL 71--      FLIGHT FOUR --NOAA 49--
       A. 25/0600Z,1200Z             A. 25/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 1409A ISAAC          B. NOAA9 1509A ISAAC
       C. 25/0400Z                   C. 25/0530Z
       D. 18.6N 73.5W                D. NA
       E. 25/0530Z TO 25/1200Z       E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A G-IV
       MISSION DEPARTING 25/1730Z AND 26/0530Z.

[Andrew]

wxman57 and srain... Any chance this could strengthen to a solid Cat 3 given its track?

Last thing I need to happen is for it to take out Destin.

Intesity forecasts at the range are a mere guess at best. The NHC has explained that this area of forecasting is what is being tested and as of August 31st, I believe that we'll see some unmanned drones sampling such things as eyewall replacement cycles and intensity. Also Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University is testing a very small drone to research intensity as well, I believe.

Also another thing we need to note, the size of this storm will mean intensification could take longer especially after exiting the islands.

[unome]

Sage Advice from a Couple of Pros


http://www.local10.com/weather/Max-Mayf ... index.html


http://www.click2houston.com/news/Bill- ... index.html

[jasons2k]

Sage Advice from a Couple of Pros
http://www.local10.com/weather/Max-Mayf ... index.html
http://www.click2houston.com/news/Bill- ... index.html

Great reminders posted there. Looking at this made my head sping though. It seems like yesterday when Mayfield was the NHC director. What's even harder to believe is that Bill Read (and Proenza) has come and gone already too! Wowsers!

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro is tad further W than the 00Z run and stronger.

[tireman4]

Yeah I noticed...a bit west (Euro)...very interesting days ahead.....

[srainhoutx]

Ridge is flatter N of the Euro solution and suggests a WNW motion as well.

[Portastorm]

That 12z Euro run (ahem) ... um ... is a .... (ahem) ... a little disconcerting.

[tireman4]

I do wonder what the PWC has to say.

[srainhoutx]

Way W from the 00Z for the Euro. Nearing Lake Charles/Vermillion Bay as a potential Major Hurricane via the 12Z solution...